The Tampa Bay Lightning (46-22-6) host the Pittsburgh Penguins (38-21-16) at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, April 2 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning lost to the Montreal Canadiens 4-1 in their last outing, while the Penguins are coming off a 5-1 victory over the Detroit Red Wings.

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To prepare for this matchup, here’s who we project to emerge victorious in Thursday’s hockey action.

In the past 10 contests, the Penguins have put up a record of 6-3-1. They have totaled 42 goals, while allowing their opponents to score 35. They have gone on the power play 31 times during that span, and have capitalized with six goals (19.4% of opportunities).

Lightning vs. Penguins Predictions for Thursday

Our computer projections model for this matchup calls for a final tally of Lightning 4, Penguins 2.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-172)
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.1 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Pick Em

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning have gone 9-6-15 in overtime games as part of an overall record of 46-22-6.
In the 22 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 9-9-4 record (good for 22 points).
The eight times this season the Lightning ended a game with only one goal, they went 2-5-1 (five points).
Tampa Bay has finished 4-8-3 in the 15 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (registering 11 points).
The Lightning have scored more than two goals 49 times, and are 40-7-2 in those games (to record 82 points).
In the 26 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a single power-play goal, it went 16-7-3 to record 35 points.
In the 41 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 24-12-5 (53 points).
The Lightning’s opponents have had more shots in 31 games. The Lightning finished 20-10-1 in those matchups (41 points).
Penguins Splits and Trends

The Penguins have earned a record of 7-16-23 in overtime matchups on their way to an overall mark of 38-21-16.
In the 22 games Pittsburgh has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 24 points.
In eight games this season when the Penguins finished a game with only one goal, they earned a total of three points (0-5-3).
Pittsburgh has four points (0-7-4) when scoring a pair of goals this season.
The Penguins have scored three or more goals 52 times, earning 85 points from those matchups (38-5-9).
This season, Pittsburgh has recorded a lone power-play goal in 27 games and registered 33 points with a record of 13-7-7.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Pittsburgh has posted a record of 19-14-9 (47 points).
The Penguins’ opponents have had more shots in 28 games. The Penguins went 14-7-7 in those matchups (35 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Penguins Game Time and TV Channel

When: Thursday, April 2, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN+
Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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