The Philadelphia Flyers have eight games left to make the playoffs, lose heartbreakingly due to a regulation wins tie-breaker, or just fall on their faces in the final two weeks and change. With eight games in 13 days, they have their work cut out for them to get over the hump, leaping over a few other teams while hoping some scoreboard watching goes their way.
It couldn’t have gone any better for the Flyers Tuesday night as Columbus, the Islanders, Detroit, and Ottawa all lost. Unfortunately the Flyers lost also. But as long as they’re not mathematically eliminated, they have a chance. So let’s take a look at the odds that are generally slim, what the other teams have in terms of their schedule, and what the big picture looks like.
Odds aren’t great, but there’s a chance Flyers make playoffs
Depending on the sites you visit, the Flyers have a puncher’s chance to very little chance at all. But let’s be hopeful and start with PlayoffStatus. Should the Flyers run the board the rest of the way with eight consecutive victories, they’re in and have a 76 per cent chance of ending up the second seed in the Metropolitan. So eight in a row and they have home-ice advantage in round one. However, considering the Flyers haven’t won four in a row this season, believing they’d win eight seems lofty. So, let’s look at a 6-2-0 record. If they win six of their last eight, they have a 97 per cent chance of a playoff spot, and most likely the third seed in the Metro. Simply put, two three-game winning streaks the rest of the way and they’re in. They have a little wiggle room but not much.
If they go 5-3-0, that percentage drops to 62 per cent, with the third seed still very much the most likely position. Anything .500 or worse and they’re dead in the water. So they have to win more than half the games. But a .750 winning percentage should get them to game eighty-three. Again, not a great position to be in. However, they’re still in control of their own destiny. For the time being.
Realistically, Philadelphia will be needing to take care of their own backyard while hoping they get some help here and there from whoever is playing Ottawa, Columbus, Detroit, or the Islanders. If it was just wondering how one team was doing, it would be much simpler for the Flyers to find their pathway to the post-season. But with four other teams in the same playoff chase neighborhood, it’s crowded territory. Should the Flyers end up with more points than the Blue Jackets and the Islanders, they’re the third seed in the Metropolitan. The Metropolitan route might be less complicated because it wouldn’t matter what Detroit or Ottawa does or doesn’t do with both in the Atlantic Division.
How the percentages and projections play out
Heading into Wednesday’s schedule (which contains no games of consequence to the Flyers), the Flyers are three points behind the Islanders with two games in hand. And two points behind Columbus with a game in hand. Again, regulation wins are Philadelphia’s Achilles heel; they have to out-point everyone else vying for a playoff spot. In terms of the wildcard spots, where Detroit and Ottawa come into the mix, all three teams (Flyers, Sens, Wings) all have the same games played and same amount of points. If Philadelphia is tied with either of them at season’s end for the last wildcard spot, the Flyers are eliminated due to the first tiebreaker.
But without getting too deep into the numbers, here’s what some of the other sites are calculating for these five teams regarding their percentages to make the playoffs and their point projections. (Note: the points projections are in brackets next to the percentages.)
TeamsMoneyPuck The AthleticHockeyStatsHockeyVizSenators41% (95.4)50% (95.9)47% (95)55.8% (96)Red Wings32.2% (95.2)31% (95.2)28% (95)23.9% (94.5)Islanders52.7% (95.9)39% (95.1)37% (95)39.8% (94.9)Blue Jackets43.7% (95.6)50% (95.9)46% (95)45.1% (95.4)Flyers22.2% (94.3)18% (93.7)33% (95) 20.9% (93.8)
As you can see, it is not great looking if the projections are any measuring stick. The Islanders, Blue Jackets, and Senators seem to be the three that will have the best chance of securing a playoff spot, with Detroit and Philadelphia bringing up the rear. Again, anything can happen. So let’s take a look at what might be the only thing favoring the Flyers. Or at least giving them a little more hope than what the aforementioned numbers suggest. We’re talking about the schedule and who those teams might have to beat in order to secure a playoff spot. Here they are in no particular order.
How the schedule plays out for each
Islanders (89 points, 76 games played)
The Islanders have played the most games, so the half dozen they have left they’ll have to make the most of them. But it won’t be easy. Not by any stretch. The first of these is against the Flyers on Friday night. The following night they visit Carolina, the first of two games against the Hurricanes the rest of the way. Perhaps the oddest aspect of this schedule for New York is not playing again until April 9, which seems ridiculous given the condensed nature of the season. That game might be the easiest of the lot as they visit Toronto, but Toronto, like any other club out of it, would love to play spoiler and put a nail in any other team’s playoff aspirations.
New York’s final three are at home against Ottawa the afternoon of April 12, then the following night they are home to Montreal before wrapping up the season against Carolina. Of these remaining trio, only the finale against Carolina could see the opposition sitting some players given how they look to be close to locking up the Metropolitan Division title. If the Islanders have another advantage, it’s that five of their six are at home. Their home record is 21-13-2. But they’ve also won 21 games on the road. They have the most points of the five teams in the playoff hunt. And the fewest games left.
Columbus (88 points, 75 games played)
The Blue Jackets have three of their remaining seven games at home. And of the seven, only two of those might be considered easier. That includes a game Saturday night at home against Winnipeg and their final game at home against the Capitals on April 14. The other five aren’t exactly bottom feeders as Carolina (tomorrow night), Detroit (April 7), Buffalo (April 9), Montreal (April11), and Boston (April 12) should most likely have something to play for, whether it’s positioning, securing a playoff spot, or avoiding near elimination in the case of the Red Wings.
In terms of injuries, Columbus found out Wednesday that they’ll be without defenseman Damon Severson and forward Mathieu Olivier the rest of the regular season. Severson is a huge void to fill and Olivier is one of their tougher forwards. Like any other team in the hunt, they’ll have to earn their place.
Detroit (86 points, 74 games played)
The Red Wings have eight left, four on the road, four at home. Of those eight, two are against Philadelphia (on the road tomorrow night and at home the following Thursday) and three are against teams out of the hunt: the Rangers, Devils, and Panthers. As for the other three, Detroit will face Minnesota, Columbus, and Tampa Bay. So essentially five of the eight should be competitive, unless Tampa Bay are locked into their seeding and opt to rest some of their bigger names. Detroit has been fading of late, going 3-6-1 in their last 10 and losers of their last two. If Detroit beats the Flyers twice in regulation, or vice versa, it should go a long way to eliminating the loser from playoff contention.
Ottawa (86 points, 74 games played)
The Senators are having some issues of late, losing their last two and with some controversy surrounding goaltender Linus Ullmark in recent starts. Regardless, Ottawa have six of their eight at home, where they are 18-11-6. And their travel schedule isn’t exactly taxing, as they visit the Islanders for an afternoon contest on April 11 and then the following night in New Jersey. However, their next four games aren’t going to be easy. Buffalo, Minnesota, Carolina, and Tampa Bay are their next four opponents, all gearing up for post-season hockey and trying to secure home-ice advantage.
If they can survive those four games, the last four are a bit easier, at least by comparison. Outside of the Islanders (April 11), Ottawa plays Florida, and New Jersey before ending the year at home against Toronto. The Leafs would love to play spoiler if they could, but Ottawa’s fate could be decided before then. One huge problem facing the Senators is their blueline as they’ve been decimated with injuries to Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson, not to mention Nick Jensen and former Flyer Dennis Gilbert.
Philadelphia (86 points, 74 games played)
It will be a tough road to hoe. But the Flyers have to hope their ridiculously high winning percentage since the Olympic break continues for the next two weeks. They play four at home and four on the road. Aside from the two games against Detroit, the Islanders, Boston, Devils, Jets, Habs, and Canes are all on the agenda. This upcoming three games in four nights will be telling as Philadelphia faces Detroit at home, the Islanders on the road Friday night, and then Sunday afternoon at home against the Bruins. Lose all three and it’s just mathematics then. Win all three and the Flyers are still very much alive.
With the addition of Porter Martone to the line, and possibly Tyson Foerster getting close, the Flyers have two new (and fresh) offensive weapons they didn’t have a week ago. Should the Flyers win four of their next six, their final two might be easier if Montreal and Carolina are set in their seedings. Both could rest some big names, making the odds a little better for victories over each. The two sets of back-to-backs are also another hurdle they have to overcome.
In the big picture
The Flyers have gone from a playoff spot, to looking at a possible lottery pick, to now knocking at the door for a playoff spot again. It’s been an up-and-down season. They have played exceptionally well since the Olympic break, but need to keep that going the next two weeks. And ideally any games involving two of these other four teams ends in a regulation win. Three-point games are almost lethal outcomes for Philadelphia now. Anything approaching .500 and they’re toast. It might not work out for them even winning five of eight, but it’s fun knowing they’re at least playing meaningful games in April. How many they’ll play remains to be seen.