NHL Betting Preview: Penguins vs Lightning
The Pittsburgh Penguins clash with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 16:00 on Thursday, April 2.
Lightning Stand Out as a Great Bet
There’s an attractive -108 that the Lightning are able to beat the Penguins in regulation time. This wager can be secured on the 3-Way Moneyline and we’re confident that it can happen.
Shootout Joy for Lightning in Previous H2H
Pittsburgh Penguins claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 5-1 triumph against Detroit Red Wings at PPG PAINTS Arena made it back-to-back wins. Yegor Chinakhov was one of five different players on the scoresheet. Goalie Stuart Skinner had an awesome game, keeping out 22 shots (.957).
Tampa Bay Lightning were beaten 4-1 at Benchmark International Arena in their last game, being turned over at home to Montreal Canadiens. Lightning had 37 shots but despite this only managed to score one goal. Jake Guentzel was the goalscorer.
Head-to-Head Statistics
It was the Lightning who came out on top when they last played the Penguins. At PPG PAINTS Arena, a 2-1 win was recorded. There has been five wins apiece in the past 10 H2H meetings.
Starting Goalies
Stuart Skinner (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
22-15-9
2.9
.889
2
23/24
36-16-5
2.62
.905
2
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
35-13-4
2.3
.911
2
23/24
30-20-2
2.9
.900
2
Pittsburgh Penguins – Last 10 Games
6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 4.2 goals from 27.7 shots on goal, with a 15.0% powerplay efficiency. The Penguins have been giving up 3.9 goals from 28.2 shots, averaging 3.8 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 71.1%.
Erik Karlsson is the top points scorer with 16 points, 7 goals and 9 assists, with Rickard Rakell racking up 13 points, 7 goals and 6 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Stuart Skinner have a 3.45 goal against average with a .879 save percentage.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Last 10 Games
The Lightning have 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.9 goals from 28.9 shots on goal, with a 11.1% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.9 goals from 25.6 shots, averaging 5.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 94.1%.
The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 15 points, 6 goals and 9 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next best after having 14 points, 5 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.14 GAA with a .911 SV%, including one shutout.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks
Your complete Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting guide is here, including our go-to match prediction, scoreline call, standout prop selections and a customized bet builder.
Game Prediction
The road team look opposable on the 60-minute line, so we’re going to make Tampa Bay Lightning our pick for this NHL encounter. You can currently get -108 for this selection which looks value.
Injuries can influence the outcome and our NHL handicappers factor that in alongside the latest form guide. We apply the same approach to the stats to build the clearest picture of how the game might unfold.
Key Penguins vs Lightning stats:
Lightning have won 15 of their last 20 games at home.Lightning have won 6 of their last 10 games.Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability
The best betting sites are estimating that there is a 51.8% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
There are some value betting options beyond simply backing Tampa Bay to win, with Match Winner & Total Goals, Puck Line and Winning Margin viable alternatives to get more juice.
Maximize your first bet with the latest betting promotions. Our guide covers all the top welcome bonuses out there.
Our Game Prediction
Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -108
Watch Live
Bet Now
Thrill Promo
70% Rakeback + 10% Cashback
Get Bonus
T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+
Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 1, 20:56). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Published 20:56, 01 April 2026
Player Prop Picks
Jake Guentzel (Lightning) has scored at least one goal in 5 straight games. There are odds of +130 available for this Anytime Goalscorer wager and we think this is a value proposition for the player to find the net.
Latest Jake Guentzel Player Prop Odds
Goals
Assists
Shots on Goal
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Lightning Have the Shortest Odds to Win
Tampa Bay Lightning are regarded as having a 64% chance of winning this game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -175. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +146 about Pittsburgh Penguins.
The puck line stands at 1.5 and the total goals line is 6.5. The beauty of Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 6.5 at -112.
From team props to game lines, National Hockey League wagering comes with no shortage of options. Head to the best betting apps to discover the market that fits your read on the game.
Nikita Kucherov Favorite to Light the Lamp First
There is +115 available that Nikita Kucherov finds the net at anytime. If you’re interested in the favorite to score the first goal, then you are able to secure +850.
Player Goals
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Brayden Point (Lightning)
Sidney Crosby (Penguins)
Player Assists
Darren Raddysh (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Sidney Crosby (Penguins)
Brayden Point (Lightning)
Player Shots
Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)
Jake Guentzel (Lightning)
Brayden Point (Lightning)
Sidney Crosby (Penguins)
Micro Betting
It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to NHL micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Check out the live team and player props and see if you can find an angle.
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Pittsburgh Penguins Stats
Tampa Bay Lightning Stats
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games
+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games on the road
-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 8.30 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 7.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 6.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.40 goals and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 4.20 pts and allowed 3.50 goals in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 6.80 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.40 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 6.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 2.90 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.10 goals and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 27.7
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 3.8
Empty Net Goals: 0
Penalty Minutes: 8.5
Blocks: 13.8
Faceoff Wins : 26
Hits: 20.6
Giveaways: 16.5
Takeaways: 4.8
Last 10 Games on the Road
Goals Powerplay: 0.7
Shots: 30.5
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 4
Empty Net Goals: 0.1
Penalty Minutes: 8.9
Blocks: 12.2
Faceoff Wins : 23.1
Hits: 18.2
Giveaways: 16.8
Takeaways: 5
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 28.9
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 5.1
Empty Net Goals: 0.4
Penalty Minutes: 13.1
Blocks: 16.8
Faceoff Wins : 26.9
Hits: 18.5
Giveaways: 15.4
Takeaways: 4.2
Last 10 Home Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.5
Shots: 29
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 5.8
Empty Net Goals: 0.3
Penalty Minutes: 14.7
Blocks: 17.6
Faceoff Wins : 27.5
Hits: 22.1
Giveaways: 13.3
Takeaways: 3.4
Starting Lineups
Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.
Expert Analysis by Paul Boucher
Senior NHL Analyst
About the Analyst
Paul Boucher is a Senior NHL Analyst and Head of the Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel with over 15 years of experience as a sports journalist and betting analyst. Based in Montreal, he provides first-hand insight through regular attendance at the Bell Centre, utilising advanced metrics to identify market value across key game lines, player props and same game parlays.
NHL Predictions Methodology
Our NHL analysis combines the latest team news, injury reports and line changes with recent form and market movement. We factor in situational analysis like home ice advantage and schedule spots. Metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG) and PDO are used to evaluate puck possession, shot quality, goaltending performance and special teams efficiency beyond the traditional box score.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
Where to Bet
The betting site referenced has been independently reviewed under our published review methodology, which evaluates betting lines, odds and market depth, licensing and security, payment processes, withdrawal reliability, responsible gambling tools and additional platform criteria relevant to user experience and regulatory standards.
 Read our Thrill Analyst Review
Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Apr 1, 20:56 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, confirmed lines and pairings, starting goaltenders, lineup changes, schedule context, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
Important: Betting should be treated as entertainment and involves risk. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Only wager what you can afford to lose.
18+ (or legal age). If gambling is causing harm or distress, support is available. Visit our Gamble Responsibly hub for safer gambling tools, self-exclusion options and local helplines.
Editorial Policy | Disclaimer