Game Seventy-Five: Pittsburgh Penguins (38-21-16) at Tampa Bay Lightning (46-22-6)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Benchmark International Arena, Where Mario Lemieux played twice (and recorded 1 goal and 2 assists)

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, SN-PIT, ESPN+, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -180

Know the Opponents: Pensburgh

We have ourselves the makings of a mini-trap game for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Coming off of a 4-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, the Bolts are playing the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight, but have a looming stretch of games against division foes right around the corner. They close up their homestand on Saturday against the Boston Bruins and then hit the road for games in Buffalo, Ottawa, Montreal, and Boston. A final two-game homestand starts against Detroit before they finish their season against the New York Rangers.

So it might be easy to look past the non-division Penguins tonight as they focus on the standings implications involved in their five-game stretch against divisional opponents starting on Saturday. That would be a mistake. Locked into their own battle for position in the Metro, the Penguins are going to come out strong as, like the Lightning, they need as many points as they can get as they cling to the second spot in their division.

This probably would have been a lot easier on paper when the Penguins were going through some injury woes that had decimated the center position to the point that winger Rickard Rakell was taking face-offs. However, Sidney Crosby is back. Evgeni Malkin is back (but playing on the wing). Bryan Rust is a game-time decision, but line-up wise, the Penguins are in a much better position to face the Bolts tonight than they were ten days ago.

There is no sympathy coming from the Lightning side of the ice as they are likely without Brandon Hagel and Scott Sabourin tonight. With both forwards “doubtful” the Bolts did dip into the AHL and use one of their recalls to bring Mitchell Chaffee back to Tampa. Assigned to Syracuse in early October, the winger has excelled with the Crunch, racking up 24 goals and 31 assists in 52 games. The right-handed shot has 7 power play goals on his resume this year as well.

His recall gives Coach Cooper the option of running twelve forwards out on the ice as opposed to going 11/7 and playing Steven Santini as the extra defenseman. It also serves as a nice reward for a player who probably didn’t anticipate playing in the AHL this season, but went down there and put the effort in with the Crunch.

No matter who is in the line-up, they’re going to need to help the Lightning create their own luck. And a team does that by generating scoring chances. The Bolts have done a decent job of winning the scoring chance battles of late. Over their last ten games they have outchanced their opponents 239-194 and have a high-danger edge of 110-73. There have been nights where the puck hasn’t gone in as a result of those chances (case in point the Montreal loss), but if they keep generating those opportunities while limiting their opponents, they will start to get the bounces and the goals will keep flowing.

Defensively, they’ve quietly returned to the the solid effort they displayed prior to the break. After a six-game run of allowing double-digit high-danger chances to their opponents they have now kept them under ten in nine straight games. Overall, they’ve allowed just 21 goals at 5v5 in their last 10 games. Even better is that they’ve posted an expected goals against of just 18.68 during that stretch. They may be giving goals up early, but they’ve locked things down over the back half of their recent games.

The race for the Atlantic Division will be decided next week, but the Lightning can’t afford to look past the Penguins tonight. Pick up the two points on the table, get a little closer to clinching a playoff spot and then worry about the rest starting tomorrow.

Scoreboard watching:

Sabres at Senators – A Senators win helps the Bolts keep the Sabres in their targets, but an Ottawa loss gets them closer to clinching a playoff spot.

Bruins at Panthers – C’mon Florida. We know that you’re basically icing an AHL line-up right now, but how about a little in-state cooperation?

Canadiens at Rangers – Wow, the teams chasing the Bolts really have an advantage tonight.

Red Wings at Flyers – Either team losing in regulation helps the Lightning get closer to a playoff spot.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards:

Jake GuentzelBrayden PointNikita KucherovGage GoncalvesAnthony CirelliOliver BjorkstrandZemgus GirgensonsYanni GourdePontus HolmbergCorey PerryNick PaulMitchell Chaffee (?)

Defense:

J.J. MoserDarren RaddyshRyan McDonaghErik CernakCharle-Edouard D’AstousEmil Lilleberg

Goaltenders:

Andrei VasilevskiyJonas Johansson

Opponents

Forwards:

Egor ChinakovSidney CrosbyRickard RakellAnthony ManthaTommy NovakEvgeni MalkinAvery HayesBen KindelJustin BrazeauElmer SoderblomConnor DewarNoel Acciari

Defense:

Parker WotherspoonErik KarlssonSam GirardKris LetangRyan SheaConnor Clifton

Goaltenders:

Stuart SkinnerArturs Silovs