GDB 77.0: Oilers, Golden Knights, and the push for first place in the Pacific Division (8PM MT, CBC)
The Edmonton Oilers are back at Rogers Place on Saturday night in the late slot on Hockey Night in Canada for what might be their biggest game of the season so far. And with only a handful of games left on the schedule, every point feels more important than the last, making tonight’s visit from Vegas a damned near must-win situation. Winners of five straight, the Oilers clawed their way into a first place tie in the Pacific Division, and while that alone is impressive considering where we were at a few weeks ago, the job’s far from done. With the Vegas Golden Knights sitting only three points back, this one is massive.Standing in the way of our first Pacific Division title since 1987, of course, is a Golden Knights team that isn’t about to make life easy. Sitting at 34-26-16 and now under the watch of John Tortorella after gassing Bruce Cassidy with only weeks left to play, Vegas has rattled off two straight wins and looks like a group that’s trying to ruin Edmonton’s comeback party. Vegas is still getting offence at a solid clip, averaging 3.18 goals per game, while controlling over 53 percent of the shot share at even strength. In other words, they’re not going to beat themselves, and if the Oilers want a sixth straight win, they’ll have to go take it.
What makes this matchup especially interesting is how close these two teams are when you start digging into the numbers, and I don’t just mean in the standings. Edmonton has the edge offensively, scoring 3.47 goals per game with a (currently struggling) power play checking in at at 30.1 percent, but Vegas counters with stronger defensive numbers, allowing just 3.14 goals against per game while carrying a slight advantage in shot share. There isn’t a whole lot separating these two teams in the spreadsheets, which tells me that tonight’s game is, once again, going to come down to execution.
So what does all of that mean? It’s simple. the team that makes fewer mistakes and takes better care of the puck is probably going to win. As much as the Oilers have done a fantastic job stacking wins over the last couple of weeks, the margin for error is razor thin right now, and we’ll need another dose of their A-game to pull this one out. There’s no extra cushion in the standings with Vegas sitting three points back, and against a team like this that’s trying to find its footing under a new coach, everybody on the home side needs to bring their best. There’s no room for passengers tonight, folks. What I’m looking for is for everyone in blue and orange to look just as engaged as they were last Thursday in Vegas.
I know I keep repeating myself in these GDBs by saying the Oilers need to focus on defence first, but it’s hard not to when you’re staring at a season-long issue that is only now starting to resolve itself. This team is more than capable of generating offence. That part has never been the issue. But the elephant in the room is whether they can keep taking care of their own end well enough to let that offence actually win them hockey games. We’ve watched the Oilers play some very playoff-style games on this winning streak, including a win over this exact Vegas team just over a week ago. And against an opponent this close to you in the standings, taking two wins from them this close together could be what it takes to put them forever in the rearview mirror.
No matter what any of us have in our minds as keys to victory, the important part is that we’ve got a division rival in our building with a chance to grab sole possession of first place in the Pacific. A win gives Edmonton a real chance at winning the division. A loss basically welcomes Vegas back into the fight. While the Oilers have done a great job climbing back into the fight, tonight’s game is a huge opportunity to put real pressure on both Vegas and Anaheim down the stretch. But none of that happens without a full team effort. Every line has to give you something. Every pairing has to be sharp. Every single guy has to be a little bit better than they were against Chicago. Everyone needs to fight above their weight class.The Oilers have put themselves in a position to basically erase all of their struggles from earlier in the year, but games like this are where you find out how real that push actually is. We need a little more urgency on loose pucks. A little more care at both blue lines. A little more commitment to getting back and sorting things out in the defensive zone. It doesn’t need to be perfect, but it needs to be as close as possible. We’ve seen and know that the Oilers can beat the Vegas Golden Knights, but the question is whether they can keep checking off the small but important details of their game and extend this winning streak to six. Five straight wins is great, but six straight wins would be that much cooler.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
THE NUMBERS
OILERS
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
RECORD
39-28-9
34-26-16
WIN/LOSS STREAK
W5
W2
LAST 10 GAMES
7-2-1
4-4-2
GOALS FOR
264
242
GOALS AGAINST
252
239
POWER PLAY%
30.1
24.2
PENALTY KILL%
77.8
81.6
GOALS FOR/GAME
3.47
3.18
GOALS AGAINST/GAME
3.32
3.14
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
29.8
28.8
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
26.9
24.3
TEAM SAVE%
.889
.885
CORSI FOR%
50.12
53.57
PDO
.982
.978
TEAM SHOOTING%
9.28
9.30
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
51.46
52.19
You can watch the game on CBC starting at 8:00 pm MST or listen on the radio like your dad did over on 880 CHED.Â
LINEUPS…Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Savoie
Podkolzin – Dickinson – Kapanen
Frederic – Samanski – Roslovic
Jones – Henrique – Lazar
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Emberson
Ingram
According to the reporters down at Rogers Place, Zach Hyman was not on the ice for morning skate again. ZMH was listed as a game-time decision against Chicago and ultimately played, but won’t be available tonight against Vegas. Kris Knoblauch said after the morning skate that Hyman would play if this were a playoff game, but that he’s out for this one. It goes without saying how big a loss it would be for the Oilers if Hyman had to miss any length of time. Either way, he’s clearly not feeling his best right now if he’s missing practice and morning skates he would usually be at.
Golden Knights
Barbashev – Eichel – Stone
Howden – Marner – Dorofeyev
R. Smith – Hertl – Sissons
C. Smith – Dowd – Kolesar
McNabb – Theodore
Hanifin – Hutton
Lauzon – Andersson
Hill
I don’t know if the Golden Knights are having a dead cat bounce with Torts behind the bench, or if he’s going to use his angry wizardry to actually turn this team around as they head into the playoffs. What I can tell you for sure is that I liked it way better when Vegas was in free fall than I do seeing them win their last two games in an impressive fashion. The Oilers will need to be at their best if they want these points. While John Tortorella never seems to be a long-term solution anywhere he goes, he does have a history of turning clubs around in the short term.
TONIGHT…
GDB Edmonton Oilers Photoshop Leon Draisaitl Suit | By Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: My crystal ball is predicting another tight one. The good news is that I also see the Oilers come out on top with a 5-3 final score. Empty netter to seal the deal.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Matt Savoie breakout party continues, with another goal and assist added to the pile.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Curtis Lazar picks up his first goal since January 6th against the Nashville Predators. Look for a greasy one in front that Lazar chips through in a crowd.
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