On Saturday, Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch announced impact winger Zach Hyman would be out of the lineup for an uncertain amount of time. The expectation is five to 14 days in order to be ready for the playoffs. The hilariously vague timeline aside, this isn’t good news for Oilers fans. Already missing elite centre Leon Draisaitl, no team can properly address that kind of attrition and come close to being whole as a roster.

On the other hand, it does offer a real opportunity for other wingers on the roster.

With or without McDavid

When everyone is healthy, the Oilers roll the top two lines heavily; the third and fourth lines share about 22 minutes at five-on-five each game.  Those numbers are a little higher currently (about 23 minutes since the Draisaitl injury), but the depth lines have been surprisingly effective. The Oilers had a dandy second line recently, consisting of Hyman and Jack Roslovic on the wing with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at centre. The trio posted strong numbers in the five games leading up to the Hyman injury (4-1 goals in just under one hour at five-on-five). 

The key for Kris Knoblauch down the stretch is to ice an effective No. 1 line constructed around Connor McDavid, while still having enough torque to create a second line that can be bothersome to opponents. Here are the individual points per 60 numbers for each Oilers winger with and without McDavid this season:

PlayerPts-60 w/97Pts-60 w/o 97

1.77

2.21

1.89

0.69

2.21

1.2

1.61

1.69

2.48

1.83

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The four names here (Hyman aside) represent the best available options for the top line currently. The early-season experiments with names like Andrew Mangiapane or Trent Frederic have given way to an interesting combination of skill, aggressive forechecking and (in the case of Vasily Podkolzin) size.

The veteran incumbent

Nugent-Hopkins was in the middle until the Hyman injury, with Knoblauch moving him to the wing on the top line for Saturday’s loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. It was a curious move, baffling fans who wondered (correctly) if the club had enough depth at centre to cover the move. As it turned out, the answer was no, as the Oilers were an easy mark for the visitors.

The issue surrounds Nugent-Hopkins as a solo scorer. Over the past three seasons, the veteran scores well at five-on-five with McDavid (1.91 points per 60 in over 1,500 minutes) but is fading badly on other lines (0.98 points per 60 in about 1,475 minutes). Nugent-Hopkins remains a quality two-way player and is strong offensively with McDavid five-on-five (power-play time remains productive). Would the coach rather deploy Nugent-Hopkins on a pure checking line or in a feature role where he can cash enough to warrant the prime time minutes?

Nugent-Hopkins’ outscoring numbers confirm the gap. In those minutes with the captain, Nugent-Hopkins was on a line that outscored opponents 87-70 (55 percent) and gave Edmonton a clear advantage. In the time away from McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins helped his line to a 53-64 (45 percent) share.

The rookie

Matt Savoie is far more productive offensively with McDavid than as a solo artist. That’s a universal theme over more than a decade for Edmonton’s wingers. Savoie’s offence came alive when he was moved off the depth lines and into a feature role. Since Feb. 1, he has led Oilers forwards in five-on-five points per 60 (2.65) and helps create when on the ice with the elite Oilers.

Savoie’s offence (above) is more productive with and without McDavid than Nugent-Hopkins, bringing us back to the question about who best to deploy on the top line. As good as Savoie is, he lacks the experience NHL coaches value highly. He has earned the feature minutes. He should remain on a skill line when everyone is healthy.

The impressive journeyman

In a way, the key player in this situation is Roslovic. He’s an underrated offensive player who can drive results on or off the top line, as shown in the table above. He runs hot and cold, but overall has been an effective plug-and-play forward on a team that has experienced an enormous number of free-agent failures in the last several seasons.

He’s moved ahead of the group of players who caught time with McDavid or Draisaitl earlier in the season. Names like Mangiapane and Ike Howard were in the mix for top minutes when Roslovic was signed, but he’s outlasted them with effective play. He has a chance to impact things with Hyman and Draisaitl out of the lineup, but is most likely on an outscoring third line when the playoffs arrive.

The big man with hands

If there’s a tug-of-war in the coach’s office over one player on this list, it might be Podkolzin. He was a staple on the Draisaitl line for much of the season, with the combination playing to a 62 percent goal share five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick. That’s a breathtaking rate for any line, and an incredible advantage for the coaching staff. The two men played little with McDavid (3-0 goals in 29 minutes), so Draisaitl-Podkolzin represents a major lift for Edmonton.

In the solo minutes that involve McDavid and Podkolzin, the Oilers have a 61 percent goal share (in almost 160 minutes). Podkolzin seems to be a perfect fit for the Oilers elite centres, similar to Patrick Maroon during his time with the team. Here are the splits for Podkolzin and Maroon during their seasons with Edmonton:

PlayerWith McDavidWith DraisaitlWith Both

Vasily Podkolzin

63

59

86

Patrick Maroon

57

58

61

All numbers five-on-five goal percentage, via Natural Stat Trick

This is a pristine chart, and the fact that Podkolzin contributes in a material way on all skill lines is a massive positive. He’s young enough to get better and drive results with the skill centres for years to come. Podkolzin is unique in this group, as he has size, skill and is showing two-way acumen. The biggest change for him this season involves finding another gear offensively.

The bottom line on Podkolzin is that he’s the team’s best option at left wing. He should run with McDavid until Draisaitl returns, and perhaps even after everyone is healthy. Every great Oilers team has deployed a quality winger with size on a top line. Podkolzin is the man for this edition of the Oilers.

What’s next?

Edmonton has a race to the finish straight ahead, which could include the Pacific Division title and certainly means another playoff run. The four men who stand to benefit from Hyman’s absence have an opportunity to change the coach’s thought process in the next couple of weeks.

When the playoffs come, expect McDavid between Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman, with Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Savoie and Roslovic with Jason Dickinson on the third line. It’s not the most creative solution, but it is risk-averse. That matches the coaching staff.