With five games left in the 2025-26 NHL season, the Toronto Maple Leafs are heading towards a defining offseason.

NHL analyst Elliotte Friedman believes the future of Auston Matthews may hinge on how next season begins. Speaking on his April 3 episode of 32 Thoughts, Friedman outlined a cautious approach from management after a disappointing year.

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“This is my theory, it’s purely my theory based on what I heard this week, is they’re gonna tell him, ‘We’re back on track next year or trying to be, and come back at the start of the year, and let’s see how it goes.’” Friedman said.

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Friedman pointed to the Vancouver Canucks handling of Quinn Hughes as a model. In that case, the team waited before making a major move in the middle of the season, in which they traded Hughes to the Minnesota Wild. This deal was done in early December, and thus, they started a reported rebuild as their season went off track.

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Friedman mentioned that he could be wrong, but believes Toronto may follow a similar path.

“Like, I think the Quinn Hughes thing, every player in that league, every team in that league saw how the Quinn Hughes thing played out this year,” Friedman said. “And that is that you start the year, you see how it goes, and then if it goes off the rails, you adjust as necessary.

“We’ll see. I could be wrong about that. But that’s my theory right now.”

Maple Leafs’ first playoff miss in Auston Matthews era

The backdrop to this situation is a shocking collapse in 2025–26. The Maple Leafs were eliminated from playoff contention on April 2 after a loss to the San Jose Sharks. It marked the end of a nine-year playoff streak and the first miss of the postseason in the Matthews era.

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Toronto is set to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic Division, and currently has a 32–31–14 record. Defensive struggles played a major role, with the team ranking among the league’s worst in goals against. The offseason departure of Mitch Marner also hurt, leaving a gap in production that the roster failed to replace.

Matthews’ own season ended early due to a torn MCL, further derailing the campaign. Despite that setback, he remains the centerpiece of the franchise. He is signed through 2027–28 on a deal that pays him $13.25 million on average each season and includes a full no-move clause.

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With management changes already underway and pressure building, the Leafs now face a delicate balance. They must decide whether to double down on Matthews or consider a bold shift.

As Friedman suggested, the first months of next season could determine everything.