Matvei Gridin has been one of the Calgary Flames’ most consistent point producers since he turned 20 years old on March 1,

After collecting a goal and an assist in a 5-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks on Saturday, Gridin has 11 points in his last 17 games, good for fourth-highest on the team during that stretch.

Chosen 28th overall in 2024, Gridin was considered a very good prospect at the time, but not an obvious candidate to break into the NHL as a teenager.

Nevertheless, the winger has become an NHL regular this season since being recalled from the Calgary Wranglers of the AHL and is now forcing his way up the Flames’ depth chart.

Gridin’s 17 points in 32 games may not immediately turn heads, but what he’s doing in the NHL at his age is actually extremely rare. In fact, only about 20 forwards have put together noteworthy seasons as a 19-year-old over the last two decades.

By reviewing this collection of Gridin’s peers, we can create a historical projection for the player and get an idea of what the organization can expect from him moving forward.

The four tiers

The 20 comparables for Gridin can be broken into four tiers according to their point-per-game pace at 19 years old: Elite (0.75+), strong (0.60 – 0.74), promising (0.48-0.59), and modest (under 0.48).

In the elite tier, you see a collection of superstars: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Clayton Keller and Elias Pettersson. Matvei Michkov also joined this tier with a 0.79 PPG season in 2024-25. Pettersson is struggling these days, but he was a keystone talent for the Vancouver Canucks before his decline.

Every player in this group has already become or projects as a franchise-level star. The hit rate is essentially 100%, meaning if you debut as a 19-year-old at 0.75+ PPG, you are almost certainly going to be a significant NHLer.

Next, the strong tier also features high-impact players like John Tavares, Jonathan Huberdeau, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk and Sebastian Aho. The one outlier here is Nail Yakupov, who eventually flamed out before returning to Russia.

The promising tier is where Gridin currently lands with his 0.53 point-per-game pace. Other 19-year-old seasons in this tier include those from Dylan Larkin, Anze Kopitar, Logan Cooley, Nikolaj Ehlers and Jakub Voracek.

This is where things get interesting. Kopitar went on to win the Selke Trophy twice, has been a 70-90 point player for most of his career with the Los Angeles Kings and is a legitimate candidate as one of the best two-way forwards of his generation.

Larkin is the franchise captain for the Detroit Red Wings and surpassed 30 goals and 70 points last season. Ehlers has been a consistent 55-65 point player his entire career.

This tier does not feature generational scorers, but it has a surprisingly strong track record of producing very good-to-excellent NHL forwards — the kind of guys who can become core elements of a roster.

Finally, the modest debut tier is a bit more of a mixed bag, with the likes of Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Johansen, Alexis Lafreniere and Sam Reinhart.

Johansen, Drouin and Lafreniere became 40-60 point producers, while Reinhart has blossomed into a star since leaving Buffalo.

What are the implications for the Flames?

This is an encouraging comparison list.

The mean PPG across all 20 comparable seasons comes out to approximately 0.60. Gridin is slightly below that average, but is also being asked to produce in a Calgary organization that struggles with offence during the current transitional period.

Related

With the exception of Yakupov, each of these players developed into a useful contributor. In fact, 15 of the 20 guys listed (75%) arguably hit star (or superstar) status during their careers.

So the chances of Gridin developing into an NHL star are meaningfully better than a casual look at this stat line would suggest. Based on recent history, Gridin is a strong bet to be a very good NHL forward and a live bet to become something even better than that.

Calgary is still searching for its next era-defining superstar, but Stanley Cup contenders are never built around just one player. Adding some big hits from the draft, like Gridin at 28th overall, will go a long way toward making this rebuild a success.