Well, it’s panic time.

Plenty of you will tell me I’m too late for that train, but I’ve remained hopeful that the effort level would improve. There’s too much on the line for a team that’s been this close to the postseason for the past several seasons not to see an improved effort. It’s been a defining characteristic of the Todd McLellan era that he’s been able to extract competitiveness from this group.

There was a glimpse on Sunday, as there have been a few — too few — times over the six weeks, when the Red Wings erased a three-goal third-period deficit against a powerhouse Minnesota Wild squad and were minutes from forcing overtime. An illogical away-from-the-play tripping penalty on Patrick Kane gave the Wild the power play that they barely needed any time on to put Detroit away.

It’s a haunting loss of at least one point. The standings are so tight that that moment could be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. Same as it felt on March 4, when Detroit couldn’t hold a 3-1 lead against a Vegas team that hadn’t beaten a team in a playoff position on the road in nearly three months, and lost 4-3 in overtime. Same as it felt on March 10, when they couldn’t even get to overtime against the Florida Panthers despite leading midway through the third period, losing 4-3 in the dying seconds of regulation. Same as it felt many other times this season.

Every team has games like that going against them, just as every team has games they don’t deserve to win that go in their favor. And while that penalty proved incredibly costly, it’s a team sport, and it’s the team’s effort earlier in the game that made that moment so crucial, and the effort all season that has left each player in a position where a mistake like that can be so damaging. Father Time is catching up to Kane, but I have to believe his competitive fire still burns too strongly not to make up for that tonight.

The outlook is not good. In each of the past few losses, the Red Wings have been in a position where a win would have them grab hold of a playoff spot. That won’t be the case tonight. If they want to hold out any hope, they have to win to at least keep pace. Too many teams have pulled away, and now only the second Wild Card seed seems attainable. Ottawa is two points ahead, sitting at 90 points and even in games played with Detroit, and the Senators hold a tiebreaker that is impossible to reverse (34 regulation wins to Detroit’s 29).

Meanwhile, the Flyers have stormed into the third seed of the Metro after being multiple games behind weeks ago. The Islanders are on the outs — and in between Ottawa and Detroit — and are so desperate that they relieved Patrick Roy of his duties over the weekend in favor of Pete DeBoer after a 3-7 record in their last 10. I’m sensing absolutely no sympathy from the Red Wings fanbase for multiple reasons. Detroit is tied with (but ahead of) tonight’s opponent, the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have come back to earth with three-straight losses and a 3-6-1 recent stretch after a massive New Coach Bump from the essentially retired Rick Bowness starting Jan. 12. The Capitals are lurking as well, just one point behind the Red Wings (who have a game in hand).

Those are the stakes. Five games to go. Three at home (Columbus, Philly, New Jersey) and two next week on the road (Tampa, Florida). Going 3-2 would require an incredible sequence of lucky outcomes to grant a playoff berth. 4-1 could do it, with significant help. 5-0 might be the only way, and it isn’t guaranteed to be enough.

It’s not impossible, but it’s looking improbable. In either event, management is watching. This is the time of year when players you build around are rising to the occasion. Alex DeBrincat is. Moritz Seider is. Dylan Larkin is getting “look how injured this guy is” montages every game, and led the Red Wings with seven shots and 10 shot attempts on Saturday. Everyone else is on notice, as far as I’m concerned.

How to Watch
Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket

Lineup note: I’m guessing both clubs are hitting the blender, so we’ll update if either holds morning skate.

Red Wings Projected Lineup
Finnie – Larkin – Raymond
DeBrincat – Copp – Kane
Kasper – Compher – Perron
van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Mazur

Edvinsson – Seider
Chiarot – Bernard-Docker
Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka

Gibson
Talbot

Blue Jackets Projected Lineup
Marchment – Fantilli – Marchenko
Jenner – Monahan – Garland
Sillinger – Coyle – Heinen
Aston-Reese – Lundestrom – Wood

Werenski – Mateychuk
Provorov – Fabbro
Christansen – Gudbranson

Greaves
Merzlikins

Rooting Guide: Tampa over Ottawa, New Jersey over Philly, Carolina over Boston (I believe Boston needs to end the year no better than 1-2-1 to be caught, and even then would hold a tiebreaker unless Detroit manages 3+ regulation wins while winning out).