Sharks and Ducks with Playoff Implications on the Line

Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the slate of games and give in depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features a massive Pacific Division matchup as the San Jose Sharks visit the Anaheim Ducks. With San Jose pushing for a Wild Card spot and Anaheim trying to stop a late-season slide, this game carries enormous Stanley Cup Playoff implications. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as we continue tracking the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions: San Jose Sharks vs Anaheim Ducks

2025–26 Season Series: Sharks lead 2–1

Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) | 7:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time

How to Watch – US TV: ESPN+, Victory+, NBCSCA, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: SN+

Location: Honda Center, Anaheim

Setting the Stage

San Jose enters at 37-33-7, while Anaheim sits at 41–32–5 in a matchup shaped by urgency on both sides. Importantly, the Ducks have now dropped six straight, including a 5–0 shutout loss to Nashville despite generating 43 shots. Meanwhile, the Sharks arrive in better recent form, continuing to stay in the Western Conference Wild Card conversation.

Credit Image: © Dinno Kovic/Southcreek/ZUMAPRESS.com

Furthermore, this matchup clearly contrasts team profiles. Anaheim remains one of the strongest territorial teams in the league, ranking near the top in shot share and expected goal generation. However, that advantage has not translated into results due to poor finishing and defensive breakdowns. On the other side, San Jose operates with a far more top-heavy approach. They do not control play consistently, but they generate offence through elite finishing talent led by Macklin Celebrini.

As a result, this game will hinge on whether Anaheim’s process finally converts into goals, or whether San Jose’s high-end talent continues to outperform underlying play.

San Jose Sharks Storyline

San Jose’s identity is built around star-driven offence rather than sustained control. The Sharks rank near the bottom of the league in five-on-five possession metrics, including Corsi and expected goals. However, they compensate with elite finishing talent at the top of the lineup.

Macklin Celebrini continues to drive nearly all offensive production. His combination of shot generation, playmaking, and finishing makes him one of the most impactful players in the league. Meanwhile, players like Will Smith and Tyler Toffoli provide secondary support, but the drop-off after the top line remains significant.

Power play goal for San Jose!Scored by Macklin Celebrini with 15:33 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Dmitry Orlov and Will Smith.San Jose: 1Edmonton: 0#EDMvsSJS #TheFutureIsTeal #LetsGoOilers

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-09T02:19:59.670760Z

Defensively, the Sharks struggle to contain sustained pressure. Their bottom-tier rankings in shot suppression and expected goals against highlight ongoing structural issues. If they spend extended time in their own zone, they are vulnerable.

Ultimately, San Jose’s success depends on efficiency. If their top players capitalize on limited chances, they can stay competitive. If not, the game tilts quickly.

Anaheim Ducks Storyline

Anaheim presents a much different profile. The Ducks are an elite territorial team, ranking near the top of the league in five-on-five shot share, expected goals, and puck possession metrics. Meanwhile, they consistently generate sustained offensive zone pressure.

However, results have lagged behind that process. Anaheim’s finishing has been inconsistent, and defensive lapses have led to goals against at key moments. The recent losing streak reflects that disconnect between process and outcome.

Leo Carlsson continues to lead the offence, combining strong shot volume with high-end play-driving ability. Additionally, Troy Terry remains a consistent contributor across all situations. On the back end, Jackson LaCombe continues to provide strong two-way impact.

Anaheim goal!Scored by Troy Terry with 15:56 remaining in the 3rd period.San Jose: 2Anaheim: 3#ANAvsSJS #TheFutureIsTeal #FlyTogether

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-04-02T03:16:04.606832Z

In goal, Lukas Dostal gives Anaheim a clear advantage. His consistency stabilizes a team that otherwise controls play but occasionally breaks down defensively.

If the Ducks maintain their territorial dominance and clean up mistakes, they should control the game over time.

The Model

The blended model strongly favours Anaheim in this matchup. The in-house model, which weighs five-on-five play, special teams, goaltending, and recent form, places the Ducks in the low 60 percent range.

Meanwhile, MoneyPuck aligns closely, projecting Anaheim at approximately 62 percent. HockeyStats comes in slightly lower but still supports Anaheim as the stronger team based on underlying performance.

After adjusting for market pricing around the -170 range, fair odds still favour Anaheim. While not a major edge, the numbers consistently point toward the Ducks.

NHL Prediction

This game represents a classic battle between process and finishing talent. Anaheim should control possession, generate more shots, and sustain offensive pressure throughout the game. Meanwhile, San Jose will rely on high-end finishing and opportunistic scoring.

However, over a full 60-minute sample, Anaheim’s territorial advantage is difficult to ignore. If even modest regression hits their finishing, the results should follow.

Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (Model Probability: ~61–63%)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 16–17

Prop Bets of the Night

This matchup again sets up for Anaheim’s volume-driven players to lead the way. First, Leo Carlsson over 2.5 shots (-120) remains one of the strongest plays available. His role as a primary offensive driver and Anaheim’s ability to sustain possession consistently create shot volume opportunities.

Meanwhile, Troy Terry to record a point (-165) provides a stable exposure to Anaheim’s offence. His involvement across even strength and the power play gives him a reliable floor in a game where Anaheim should control play.

For a counter angle, Macklin Celebrini over 1.5 points (+135) remains a strong option. Nearly all of San Jose’s offence runs through him, making him largely matchup-proof even against stronger teams.

Together, these plays reflect a game script where Anaheim controls possession, while San Jose relies on elite talent to generate offence in response.

2025–26 Season Betting Record: 39–32 (+9.81 units)

Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.

Main Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

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