Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. Our featured game of this edition is the New York Islanders taking on the Toronto Maple Leafs. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Head-to-Head: Islanders 2-0 Leafs
How to Watch: TV: ESPN+, HULU 

Time: 6:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

This NHL prediction features two Eastern Conference opponents: one eliminated from playoff contention and the other desperate for a win. The Islanders have slid down the Metropolitan Division standings. Currently fifth in the division and out of a playoff spot. Their record is 42-31-5 after 78 games played, and they have 89 points on the season. The Maple Leafs are down in seventh place in the Atlantic Division. With 77 games played, their record is 32-31-14. This is the third and final matchup between these two teams, with the Islanders taking both of the previous meetings. This final one will take place on Long Island inside UBS Arena.

The Islanders Story

It has been a dreadful last four games for the Islanders. Playing in the biggest games of their season and losing all of them. They have lost those games by a combined score of 20-10. Things have gotten so bad that the General Manager, Mathieu Darche, made a surprise decision to relieve Patrick Roy of his duties as Head Coach. Peter DeBoer has been appointed to the position for the rest of this season and the next four.

DeBoer will take over a team that ranks 24th in the league in goals for, with just 2.85 per game. He hopes to be able to get more from his special teams; the power play ranked 30th with just a 16.7% conversion rate. They will look to their team’s top point producer, Mathew Barzal, who has continued to be a bright spot despite the losing. He has a four-game point streak, which has his season total at 70 in 77 games played.

Defensively, the team has been a nightmare; they have allowed four or more goals in the last four straight games and even allowed eight in one game during that stretch. They could receive reinforcements in the form of Tony DeAngelo and or Alexander Romanov, who both returned to practice this week. Even just one of them returning would give a nice boost to their blueline. Whoever is in the lineup needs to play better in front of their goalie, Ilya Sorokin, who has made 11 starts in a row. Over that span, he is 4-7 with a .891 save percentage, not great numbers, but he hasn’t had much help in front of him. The season-long numbers are still strong at 28-21-2 with a .909 save percentage. He has kept them in games and gives them the best chance to win every time he is in there.

The Maple Leafs Story

Things have not been going much better in Toronto, where they have dropped their last two games and are eliminated from playoff contention. Offensively, things have been going finewithout their franchise player, Auston Matthews; they rank 16th in goals per game at 3.13. They have had to rely on John Tavares, who moved to the top-line centre role. He has 68 points in 77 games while carrying a three-game goal streak and has at least one point in seven of his last eight games. He and linemate William Nylander have both had nice seasons. Nylander leads the team in points with 73 in 60 games and has eight goals and 19 points over the last 18 games.

Defensively is where things are rough. In the last four games, they have allowed four or more goals in each and had a game where they allowed seven. Despite the third-best penalty kill in the league at an 82.3% kill rate, they still rank 29th in goals against at 3.52 per game. Starting goaltender Joseph Woll has seen 40 shots in four of his last eight starts. He is 2-3-3 over that span. On the season, however, the numbers are not bad, 15-14-7 with a .901 save percentage. Backup Anthony Stolarz hasn’t been much better. He is 10-10-3 with a .892 save percentage. Neither goalie has been announced for this game yet.

Prediction

With both teams struggling heading into this game, it is not an easy game to call. Offensively and on special teams, the Maple Leafs have an advantage. However, defensively, goaltending-wise and on home ice, the Islanders hold those edges. The desperation factor could come into play for the Islanders, who are playing for their playoff lives in this game. That and the boost teams get from adding a new coach could tip the scales. With all that in mind, we think the Islanders will be able to pull out a much-needed win in Peter DeBoer’s first game behind the bench.

Prediction: Islanders win 4-3 

Prop Bets

According to the popular sportsbooks, the Islanders are the heavy favourites at -220 on the Moneyline. The odds are not the best, but this would be our pick. The over/under is set high at 6.5. Despite the high line, we would take the over at +106. The Maple Leafs can score goals, but they have a hard time keeping them out of their own net. As far as anytime goal scorers. For the Islanders, take Matthew Schaefer at +270. He is one of the main offensive players for his team, and he has a goal against Toronto already this season. For the Maple Leafs, take John Tavares at +200. He just hit 30 goals for the eighth time in his career, and he always loves to stick it to his old team on the Island.

Main photo by: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Please play responsibly, check for your local rules and age restrictions, some jurisdictions require ages 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER