The Toronto Maple Leafs (32-33-14) take on the Florida Panthers (37-38-4) at Scotiabank Arena on Saturday, April 11 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Maple Leafs were defeated by the New York Islanders 5-3 in their most recent game, while the Panthers are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators.

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Here’s our pick for who will capture the victory in Saturday’s matchup.

The Panthers are 3-6-1 in the last 10 games, scoring 27 total goals (three power-play goals on 19 power-play opportunities during that time, for a conversion rate of 15.8%). They have allowed 39 goals to their opponents.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Predictions for Saturday

Our computer model for this game calls for a final tally of Maple Leafs 4, Panthers 3.

Moneyline Pick: Maple Leafs (-120)
Total Pick: No Pick – Predicted Margin Negligible
Spread Pick: Panthers (+1.5)

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Maple Leafs Splits and Trends

The Maple Leafs have finished 9-14-23 in overtime contests on their way to an overall record of 32-33-14.
In the 26 games Toronto has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 13-3-10 record (good for 36 points).
In the 10 games this season the Maple Leafs scored just one goal, they’ve finished 0-8-2 (two points).
Toronto has scored two goals in 21 games this season (5-11-5 record, 15 points).
The Maple Leafs are 27-12-7 in the 46 games when they have scored more than two goals (to register 61 points).
In the 23 games when Toronto has recorded a single power-play goal, it registered 18 points after finishing 6-11-6.
In the 18 games when it outshot its opponent, Toronto is 7-9-2 (16 points).
The Maple Leafs’ opponents have had more shots in 59 games. The Maple Leafs went 23-24-12 in those matchups (58 points).
Panthers Splits and Trends

The Panthers have posted a record of 8-4-12 in overtime contests to contribute to an overall mark of 37-38-4.
Florida has earned 32 points (15-6-2) in its 23 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
In 18 games this season when the Panthers ended a game with only one goal, they earned a total of five points (2-15-1).
Florida has 10 points (4-13-2) when scoring exactly two goals this season.
The Panthers have earned 63 points in their 41 games with at least three goals scored.
Florida has scored a single power-play goal in 28 games this season and has registered 29 points from those matchups.
When it outshoots its opponent this season, Florida has posted a record of 21-21-4 (46 points).
The Panthers have been outshot by opponents 30 times this season, and earned 30 points in those games.

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Team Stats Comparison

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game Time and TV Channel

When: Saturday, April 11, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN+
Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
Where: Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario

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