Well, the National Hockey League’s 2025-26 regular season is nearing its conclusion…..and it has certainly been an interesting one for the Winnipeg Jets. Coming off a President’s Trophy win, the True Northers had high hopes entering the campaign….but injury issues reared their ugly head during the off-season & training camp, starting the Jets off on the wrong foot.

Despite missing key players like Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg, & Cole Perfetti, Winnipeg started off well by winning 9 of their first 12 contests while taking their place near the top of the NHL’s rankings. However things eventually caught up with our team, as they only managed a 5-12-1 record in their next 18 matches to plummet down the standings. To further cement their freefall, Winnipeg went winless in a 11 game stretch (0-7-4) without Connor Hellebuyck from December 15th to January 8th to finally settle among the bottom dwellers.

Finally, the Jets started to play a bit better from January 9th to February 4th, as they piled up a 7-4-3 record before the league took a 3 week break for the Olympics. While this improved play didn’t result in much improvements in the standings, Winnipeg’s play since the NHL returned to action has been another story. From February 25th to date, our hockey club has amassed a 13-5-4 record (30 out of a possible 44 pts)…..and that rate would equal a 111 points for the Jets over a full 82 game season.

As a result of this, the True Northers have pulled within 3 points of the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot….though the Los Angeles Kings have easier opposition for their remaining 4 games (EDM, SEA, VAN, CGY) , so closing the gap with limited games left might be too much to ask of this late season comeback. Winnipeg, on the other hand, has to play 3 teams currently holding a playoff spot (PHI, VEG, UTH) and one still with hopes of grabbing a wildcard spot (SJ).

For those of you who desperately wanted to see the Jets make the playoffs, then you might end up looking back at that terrible winter 11 game losing streak in Dec/Jan as the “straw” that stopped the “camel” from qualifying for the post-season. Obviously getting no points in that long of a span is going to be problematic….but when you really take a closer look at that run of games, you realize just how close our club came to changing their season’s fortunes. Playing badly and getting pummeled is one thing, but the True Northers lost 9 one goal games in that span and 2 two goal games (EDM scored empty netter, leaving OTT the only team to comfortably beat WPG). A couple more Winnipeg goals here & there or even a few more extra time losses (had 4 of those in the 11 games) would have given them much better odds at qualifying for the playoffs (currently at 12.5% for WPG, compared to 67.5% for LA according to MoneyPuck).

The tankers hoping for a top 5 draft pick this summer will be happy the Jets rode that knife’s edge to still have a shot at grabbing an elite prospect, despite their late charge. Unfortunately, at this point, I only see the San Jose Sharks as the one club that may pass Winnipeg in the standings (they play VAN, NSH, CHI, WPG), so the 9th best odds in the upcoming Lottery may be the best they can hope for at this point. That would result in the Jets having about a 5% shot at each of the 1st & 2nd overall selections, but are more likely to finish at 9th (64.4%) or 10th (23.5%). Even then, the New Jersey Devils could easily slip in under the True Northers and if the Sharks don’t make a charge, that could leave us fans waiting until the 11th or 12th position.

Alright…..lets move onto today’s NHL action, where 30 of 32 franchises will be squaring off with each other. Obviously that means there could be lots of movement in the standings, but Winnipeg fans will mostly want to keep an eye on a pair of afternoon contests. The Los Angeles Kings could reduce their magic number to lock up a playoff spot over the Jets to 2 with a win over the Edmonton Oilers (3 pm Central), while the Nashville Predators will be trying to keep their slim post-season hopes alive with a victory over the Minnesota Wild (4 pm Central). Finally, the San Jose Sharks could possibly pass Winnipeg with a win over the Vancouver Canucks in the late game (9 pm Central).

The True Northers can’t control what happens in those contests, so they will be best to focus on Saturday’s opponent if they want to give Jonathan Toews a shot at earning that playoff bonus clause in his contract. The Philadelphia Flyers find themselves in a bit of an odd situation as the regular season nears its conclusion. While they are sitting in the 3rd spot of the Metropolitan Division, their 92 points on the year aren’t enough to qualify for the lower Eastern Conference wildcard spots. Thanks to the Atlantic putting out 5 clubs with over 94 pts to date, the Flyers are desperately trying to hold off the New York Islanders (91 pts) and Columbus Blue Jackets (90 pts) for the Metro’s 3rd place spot. Really, Philly is only in that spot because both the Isles & Jackets have been bad over their last 10 games.

So both squads should be hungry when the puck drops in the Peg this evening……lets take a closer look at the two teams.

PHI Flyers @ WPG Jets

Start Time: 6:00 pm Central – Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg (35-31-12) is in 23rd place in the NHL with 82 points on the season, scoring 224 Goals For (25th) and allowing 236 Goals Against (8th). Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 65 assists and 99 points. Kyle Connor is the goal scoring leader with 38 goals, while Gabriel Vilardi is 1 marker back from his first 30 goal campaign.

Philadelphia (40-27-12) is tied for the 11th best record in the league with 92 points, scoring 236 Goals For (20th) and allowing 238 Goals Against (10th). Owen Tippett is the Flyers’ leading goal scorer with 28, Trevor Zegras has the most assists with 41, and Travis Konecny is leading in points with 67.

Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head data, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:

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If you were just looking at the graphics above, I am not sure you would be able to pick out which club has 10 more points on the campaign…..as the numbers are pretty even throughout. Dan Vladar has outperformed Connor Hellebuyck this season (not a sentence I thought I would ever type), but other than that it might be difficult to see why Philadelphia has done so well this year.

Perhaps MoneyPuck’s Expected Goals data for 5 on 5 play might provide a better clue since the Flyers have had a 51.18% xG rate (15th in NHL) and a 50.71% Actual Goal rate (13th), compared to the Jets 49.35% xG rate (19th) and 48.16% aG rate (23rd). Winnipeg has improved those figures over their past 10 games to have the NHL’s 10th best aG rate (55.26%)….but Philly has also moved up to 4th in the league (60.53%).

But these numbers don’t actually determine the outcome of a particular game, as shown by the Jets most recent win over the St. Louis Blues, who have the NHL’s 3rd best aG rating over the past 10 games…..so the True Northers will be looking to add to their 3 game winning streak on this sunny Manitoba day. Here are the line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia based on the most recent games:

WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP

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PHILADELPHIA FLYERS LINE UP

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The Philadelphia Flyers have a whole lot of youth in their line up, with 9 players 25 years old or younger expected to play. I am excited to put eyes on rookie Porter Martone, who recently signed after the end of his NCAA season and has managed to pile up 6 pts in his first 6 NHL games. The opposition has other highly touted prospects as well, but my attention was caught by a rookie forward named Alex Bump. Have no clue who he is, but I seriously hope that he is a grinder that likes to throw bodychecks. Can just see the coach tapping him on the shoulder and saying “Alex Bump” and the kid hopping over the boards to bang into everyone he can. The only thing that would be better than that is having the option to throw on “Joe Score” over the boards.

Nothing from IllegalCurve on the pre-game skate, even though it was supposed to be at 9:30 am, but I did hear that Colin Miller shed the no-contact jersey….so he could be an option. Doubt the coaching staff changes anything while they are winning though. Have a good weekend!!

Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!

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POST-GAME INFO

Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)

FINAL SCORE: 

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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)

Expected Goals (all):  

Expected Goals (5on5):