Elite talent rarely spends time in the minor leagues. Leon Draisaitl spent six games with the Bakersfield Condors in 2015-16, which tells you more about Edmonton Oilers management at the time than it does Draisaitl. The big man was scoring big goals in Edmonton by Halloween 2015.

The AHL is the land of opportunity for most young players hoping to play in the NHL. The world’s best minor league smooths the edges off all player styles by giving offence-first types a lesson in positioning and controlled aggression and teaching offensively shy players where goals come from.

Oilers general manager Stan Bowman has improved the Oilers’ AHL team in his short time in Edmonton. Using college and European free agents as his primary talent pools, Bowman has acquired some impressive talent. Some of his additions have shown exceptional results in the AHL and are pushing for NHL time in hopes of landing significant careers.

Can we identify the men who have NHL futures? Here’s a look.

Outscoring at even strength

Since elite skill spends very little time in the minors, goals and points aren’t terribly informative about a prospect’s progress. It’s a 4-3 league (overtime skews things higher), and most forwards score in an expected range for a league with about 6.5 goals per game. In order to identify future NHL forwards, we need to find a way to recognize two-way types by measuring individual progress.

One of the ways we can track prospects is even-strength scoring. If a player improves in the metric after Christmas, that suggests progress is being made. If there are struggles, that could mean the player hit a wall. College players are especially prone to performance downbeats after Christmas.

Here’s a look at the team’s forwards (prospects only) with regression (good and bad) in the second half:

Player1st half (pct)2nd half (pct)

24-22 (52)

11-7 (61)

18-18 (50)

23-15 (61)

15-21 (42)

28-31 (47)

18-12 (60)

23-26 (47)

19-6 (76)

23-32 (42)

3-8 (27)

3-5 (38)

All goals for/against numbers at even strength, via AHL.com

Centre Josh Samanski delivered strong numbers in the first half and then improved early in the second half. He is now an NHL player, having passed 20 games played. Natural Stat Trick has him as a shy scorer (0.87 points per 60 minutes), but he is playing opponents at 50 percent (54 percent expected) and has a faceoff success rate well over 50 percent (all numbers five-on-five). This is a success story for the organization and confirmation that the Oilers’ talent evaluation seems real. If he finds an offensive gear, he could land a foundational role (No. 3 centre) on the Oilers next season.

Roby Jarventie was a trade acquisition from the Ottawa Senators, with Edmonton sending back 2021 first-round selection Xavier Bourgault in July of 2024. He posted a pedestrian season in 2024-25, an injury-riddled campaign that could have ended his time with the organization. Now, Jarventie is putting the finishing touches on a resume that could see him playing in the NHL next season. His second-half spike is similar to Samanski’s, but there are no clear areas of strength. He could reach the NHL next season, but would need some breaks in training camp. He is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent, but shouldn’t be difficult to sign.

Viljami Marjala came out of Finland, signed a year ago and is expected to help one of the skill lines. As an outscorer, he started slowly but improved during the second half of the season. As an offensive player, he is most comfortable on the power play and a little below the rest in this group at even-strength goal scoring. When Samanski moved up to the NHL, Marjala emerged as one of the top centres (along with veteran James Hamblin). He has handled it well enough, but Samanski is clearly the better player.

Quinn Hutson and Ike Howard are both college men who hit a wall in the second half of the season. Their performances in the first half were so strong, there’s little doubt both men will play in the NHL next season. Howard is a terrific offensive player at even strength in the AHL (16-17-33 in 43 games) and was solid in outscoring until he hit a wall. As the club’s top prospect, fans should expect him to find a role next season on a skill line in Edmonton. Hutson won’t be applying for the same job (he isn’t as dynamic offensively), but may be able to fill a two-way role in the fall more easily than Howard fits the skill role. Both should expect to play most of next season in the NHL.

Connor Clattenburg’s development this season could be the biggest surprise in the organization. He played so well last fall that he got into five NHL games earlier this season, scoring a goal. Clattenburg’s junior numbers didn’t imply much offence, but he plays a simple game and has surprising hands. NHL careers have been built on less natural talent, and Clattenburg plays with the rugged edge that Edmonton management values highly under Bowman.

How many NHL players?

It’s tempting to suggest all six men will find a way to play in 100-plus NHL games, but history tells us you can cut that number in half and still guess too high.

Marjala doesn’t stand out in this group, although he can play a complementary role with skill forwards. It’s fair to suggest the AHL is his ceiling, unless he has another gear. Clattenburg is a fascinating prospect because he has surprising skill for a player destined for the fourth line. The primary concern for him is injury (he spent much of this season on the injured list), and it’s a tough job (physical depth winger) to play every night. Jarventie has the look of an NHL player, but (unlike Samanski) doesn’t stand out enough as a possible utility forward. His offence is strong in the AHL, but isn’t enough to push for work on a skill line.

That leaves three players who should exceed 100 NHL games barring a career-altering injury. Samanski has progressed a shocking amount in one season, with centre and wing jobs on the Oilers possible next season. If you listen to comments from coach Kris Knoblauch, there’s clear respect for a rookie who plays like a veteran. Howard is capable of doing the most difficult thing in hockey: scoring goals. He’s also an impressive passer and creative offensively. His season in the minors was more about learning to make the safe play and be on the right side of the puck when there’s a turnover. Former Oilers coach and general manager Craig MacTavish used to talk about young players being aware of “what they left” for the opponent on any given turnover.

Finally, Hutson has shown both two-way acumen and strong offensive flair. He is the most complete prospect in Bakersfield this season (among the forwards). Samanski has the goal suppression in his game consistently, and Howard is going to score 20-plus goals in the NHL in the years to come. Hutson hit a wall after Christmas, but the two-way talent is clear.

Howard should have the longest career. His goal-scoring prowess will take him far. He was going to make it no matter what happened this season. Hutson and Samanski will play down the depth chart, and both men accurately reflect the players who use the AHL as an NHL springboard by honing their games in the minors.

Bottom line

There was urgency for the Oilers organization. Draft picks and young players were traded, and an effective offer sheet raid clipped the two young bona fides (Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg) who were guaranteed NHL futures. Among the forwards Bowman inherited and procured, the organization has done a good job of turning around an eroding system.

Among the six forward hopefuls mentioned here, three (Samanski, Howard and Hutson) appear destined for NHL careers that exceed 100 games. Credit to Bowman. He and his staff have accomplished a great deal in short order. Up next: The minor-league defencemen and goaltenders.