Maple Leafs finally know their NHL Draft lottery odds, chance of Bruins getting 1st-round pick originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The Toronto Maple Leafs finally know their chances.
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They’ve been wondering all season whether they’ll keep their first-round pick or convey it to the Boston Bruins. Their NHL Draft lottery odds are now set.
The Leafs “did what they could” by losing five of their last six games in regulation and dropping the other in overtime.
It’s the pick that moved in the Brandon Carlo trade during the 2024-25 season. The Leafs sent a first-rounder and Fraser Minten to Boston in exchange for the defenseman Carlo.
That first-round pick for 2026 had a protection on it: If it ends up being a top-five selection, the Maple Leafs keep the pick.
If if ends up anywhere from No. 6 and beyond, the Bruins get to make the pick.
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Given the rough season in Toronto, losing a first-round pick in a quality draft class would add insult to injury.
The Maple Leafs’ losing finish did put them into the fifth-best lottery odds.
That’s 8.5% chance of picking first, 8.6% for second, 0.3% for third and 24.5% for fifth. That leaves it at 56.2% of conveying their pick to the Bruins.
That’s not perfect, but given that they spent much of the second half with higher than 80% chance of sending the pick to the Bruins, a nearly 50-50 chance has to feel at least a little bit better.
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