There’s still a better than 50-50 chance of the Boston Bruins getting the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top-five protected 2026 first-round draft pick to complete the Brandon Carlo trade from March of 2025, but they are going to need a little luck in the NHL Draft Lottery next month.

For much of the post-Olympic break portion of the season, the Maple Leafs had either the seventh- or eighth-worst record in the league. In those scenarios, the Bruins’ chances of getting the Leafs’ pick this year were pretty high.

But the Leafs essentially tanked over the last week or so and finished with a 32-36-14 record — the fifth-worst in the league. Toronto ended the regular season on a five-game losing streak and a 2-7-1 record in its last 10 games.

As a result, the Leafs improved their chances of keeping their 2026 first-round pick.

The Bruins now have a 58.2 percent chance of getting this pick. However, they need at least one team that finished lower in the standings than the Maple Leafs to jump Toronto in the lottery.

Last year, two teams — the Mammoth from No. 14 to No. 4, and the Islanders from No. 10 to No. 1 — jumped up in the lottery. Teams cannot move up more than 10 spots in the lottery under the current format.

Here are the Maple Leafs’ draft pick odds, per Tankathon. If the pick lands outside the top five, it goes to Boston this year.

No. 1: 8.5 percent

No. 2: 8.6 percent

No. 3: 0.3 percent

No. 4: N/A

No. 5: 24.5 percent

No. 6: 44 percent

No. 7: 14.2 percent

Ironically, the Bruins were in the same spot last year with the fifth-worst record and they fell to No. 7 after the Islanders and Mammoth leapfrogged them. It ended up working out for the Bruins because Boston College center James Hagens fell to them at No. 7 overall.

In the four years since the league tweaked its draft lottery rules, the team with the fifth-worst record has moved up to second once, remained at five twice and dropped to seventh once.

What happens if the Maple Leafs remain in the top five and keep the pick. Well, it’s a little complicated.

Here’s the explanation from PuckPedia: “The 2027 pick goes to Philadelphia (as part of Laughton trade) if it is outside the top 10, which converts this pick to Boston to a 2028 unprotected 1st Round Pick. If this Pick slides to 2027 and is in the top 10, TOR can either transfer it to BOS to satisfy this trade and then give PHI the 2028 unprotected, or transfer it to PHI and give BOS the 2028 unprotected 1st Round Pick.”

So, the Bruins will get a first-round pick from the Maple Leafs at some point, but the exact year is still TBD. It could convey in 2026, 2027 or 2028.

The ideal scenario for the Bruins would be getting it this year and picking No. 6 or No. 7 overall in what is considered a strong 2026 draft class, one that is loaded with top-tier defenseman prospects. The Bruins need to bolster the talent and depth of their blue line prospects. Also, any player picked this year could join the Bruins when David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are still in the primes of their career. A 2028 draft pick might not be ready to join the NHL until 2030 or so.

The Bruins are back in the playoffs after failing to qualify last season, but the most impactful event for the franchise over the next month might be the draft lottery. Getting the No. 6 or No. 7 pick would be a massive boost for the B’s.