Keagan Smith provides a series preview, prediction and pick for Lightning vs. Canadiens in the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Start growing those playoff beards — the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs have arrived at long last.

Out in the Eastern Conference, a best-of-seven between Atlantic Division foes sets up quite the spectacle as the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens go head-to-head in the opening round. As an added bonus beyond the division rivalry, these franchises actually met in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, made possible by temporary league realignment during that campaign. Montreal’s core may be drastically different today, but the sting of that loss may resurface among the players from that roster who remain. Plus, the fanbase certainly isn’t the forgive-and-forget type.

Here’s a detailed look at this Lightning vs. Canadiens series, including a preview, betting odds, and a top pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Lightning vs. Canadiens series preview

Tampa Bay Lightning

For a month or so earlier this season, it seemed like the Lightning were en route to a surefire Stanley Cup Final appearance. A slow start out of the gate was followed by an 11-3-0 run in November and 11-1-1 record in January, but Tampa Bay actually faded down the stretch and fell short of the Atlantic Division title during the final days of the schedule. Still, a 106-point campaign feels like nothing to scoff at, especially after winning 50 games to finish 50-26-6. Now, the goal is to shake off three consecutive first-round exits and make it back to the Final for the first time since 2022, which was preceded by back-to-back Cup wins in 2020 and 2021 (the latter of which came over the Canadiens).

The two-way play of the Lightning stands out from most teams — there’s a reason their goal differential sits at a conference-best +59. This attack brings the thunder, averaging the fourth-most goals with 3.49 per game. While middle-of-the-pack in shot volume with 28.1 a night, Tampa Bay gets plenty of high-quality looks at fourth in high-danger chances and second in medium-danger opportunities. The Bolts are also fifth in rebound shots, though they’ve converted only 32 goals from those. It should be noted that while this offense is great and maintains a fairly respectable power play with a 20.7% PP%, they’re just 18th in xGF/60 with a man advantage and 15th in actual GF/60 in the same situation. Compare that to even-strength numbers of the second-best GF/60 and fifth-best xGF/60, and it’s clear they’re far better in 5v5 play.

The offensive production is headlined by Nikita Kucherov’s 130 points (44G/86A), who looks every bit of a Hart Memorial Trophy candidate following a somewhat sluggish start to his own campaign. He’s joined by a couple of the usual suspects in terms of co-stars; Jake Guentzel with 88 points (38G/50A) and Brandon Hagel with 74 (36G/38A). However, the breakout story of the Lightning’s season is none other than defenseman Darryn Raddysh, whose 70 points (22G/48A) in 73 games are by far a career high. Anthony Cirelli (52P; 23G/29A) and Brayden Point (50P; 18G/32A) both reached the 50-point mark as well.

Defensively, Tampa Bay also ranks among the NHL’s top teams. The Lightning allow the third-fewest goals per game at 2.79 and eighth-fewest shots per outing at 26.7. With the third-best penalty kill at 82.6%, they shut opponents down even when shorthanded too. They’re also eighth in high-danger chances and seventh in medium-danger chances allowed across all situations. Two areas in which they struggle, though? Tampa Bay sits second-to-last in takeaways and shots blocked. Still, those weaknesses matter a little bit less when a team has a netminder like Andrei Vasilevskiy, who looks like a Vezina Trophy frontrunner with a 2.31 GAA, .912 SV% and 39 wins in 58 games.

Montreal Canadiens

After a three-year postseason drought and during franchise retool that followed the 2021 Cup loss, the Canadiens re-entered the postseason field last year. Now, they’re back and much better after tallying 106 points with a 48-24-10 record. It hasn’t always been pretty, but Montreal has reasserted itself as a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. The biggest problems? Relative inexperience compared to Tampa Bay, as well as that if the group makes it out of this difficult opening series, they’ll likely be rewarded with a second-round matchup against a tough Buffalo Sabres squad.

Still, there’s plenty to like about this Canadiens roster. If offense is your thing, look no further. They score 3.40 goals per game, good for eighth in the NHL despite falling 24th in shots per outing (26.3). They fall 15th in high-danger chances but are an extremely efficient squad with a 12.9% shooting percentage that ranks second in the league (just ahead of the Lightning’s 12.4%, which sits third). At even strength, Montreal sits eighth in GF/60 and 13th in xGF/60; the team comes in at seventh and 16th in the same stats on the power play. Speaking of, the Canadiens hit at a 23.1% clip on the man advantage, 10th best in the NHL.

The star of show is Nick Suzuki, the top-line center with 101 points on the campaign (29G/72A) who works as the primary distributor. Co-star Cole Caufield’s finishing puts him second among all skaters leaguewide in goals (51G/37A) and his 88 points are good for second on the team. Standout defenseman Lane Hutson ranks third on the roster and fourth in the NHL at his position with 78 points (12G/66A), while Juraj Slafkovsky’s 73 points (30G/43A) also make him another high-end option. Rookie Ivan Demidov also mustered 62 points (19G/43A) at just 20 years old in what will almost surely be a Calder-winning campaign.

However, the Canadiens aren’t without flaws. While active defensively with an older-school style at third in blocks and seventh in hits given, this unit leaves something to be desired. They’re conceding 3.06 goals per game, 14th, along with the 18th-most shots on goal (27.8). Many of those are high-danger attempts — in fact, Montreal has allowed the third most of any team in the NHL along with the fourth-most medium threats. Even when combined with a penalty kill that stops opponents at a 78.2% rate, 18th overall, that’s not exactly conducive to great defense. With the odds more likely than not that a rookie starts in net, there are also concerns as to the goaltending. Jakub Dobes appeared in 43 games with a 2.78 GAA and .904 SV%, earning 29 wins in that sample. He’s the probable starter, though Jacob Fowler could see work in a pinch after amassing a 2.43 GAA and .908 SV% in 17 contests.

Lightning vs. Canadiens first-round series prediction, pick

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lightning as -250 favorites in the series winner market to take this best-of-seven. The Canadiens are +205 underdogs to advance out of the first round.

There’s a reason that Tampa Bay is favored by such a significant margin. The Lightning are a far more experienced team with a core that’s accustomed to the lights and pressure of the Stanley Cup Playoffs; their opponent cannot say the same for the most part. With a championship-proven roster, the Bolts have both the talent and pedigree to not only win the series but advance all the way to the Final.

Now, will they do so? Most of the stats would point to yes, even despite splitting the season series at two games apiece. Tampa Bay won the first two contests 6-1 and 5-4 before falling 4-1 and 2-1 in the two matchups which took place in recent weeks back on March 31 and April 9. That’s maybe not a great sign, but let’s look at the advantages for a moment.

The play Vasilevskiy brings between the pipes cannot be overstated. The former Vezina Trophy and Conn Smythe winner ranks second in GAA, sixth in SV%, fourth in saves above expected, and fourth in WAR this season. He’s playing some of the best hockey at the moment with a .912 SV% and 2.19 GAA in six starts this April as well, so there’s something to be said about a hot goalie. Granted, Dobes is also top 10 in saves above expected, SV% above expected and WAR himself, plus he’s been quite good against high-danger chances. He can give Montreal a real shot if at his best, but Vasilevskiy is the elder statesman in this series.

Beyond the obvious disparities in special-teams play which favor Tampa Bay, particularly on the penalty kill, there’s also the matter of whether the Canadiens can limit one of the NHL’s top 5v5 units. Montreal sits middle-of-the-pack with a 2.49 GA/60 mark at even strength, but plummets all the way to 22nd in xGA/60 at 2.94. That’s not ideal against the Lightning and their offensive onslaught led by an MVP-caliber talent and plenty of surrounding stars.

This is a series that favors the more experienced roster, yes, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a pathway to an upset by the up-and-comers. The Canadiens will need Dobes to either catch fire and stand on his head, or the attackers will have to muster up enough offense to keep things close against the Lightning’s offensive onslaught. We’ll forgo the winner pick for value reasons and target a different bet instead — with such incredible groups of scorers on each side, it makes more sense to take the “yes” option on whether a single game will see at 10+ goals scored. Expect this series to be a shootout between bitter rivals with plenty of bad blood by the time the best-of-seven reaches its conclusion.

Top Pick: TB Lightning vs. MTL Canadiens – Any game 10+ goals (+155)

Puck drop for game one of this series is Sunday, April 19 at 5:45 p.m. ET.