Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the action with in-depth analysis. We look at key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how things might play out. For this edition, we turn our attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens for Game 5 of their 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference First-Round series. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as the series rolls on through the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions with Lightning and Canadiens — Game 5

Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

How to watch:  ESPN2, The Spot, CBC, Sportsnet, TVAS

Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

2025–26 Playoff Series: Tied 2–2

The series is now down to a best-of-three after Tampa Bay overcame a two-goal deficit to win Game 4 in regulation, 3-2, tying the series at 2-2. No team has managed to win back-to-back games so far in this series. That’s a remarkable pattern that has made this one of the most gripping first-round matchups of the entire playoffs. Both teams finished with 106 points in the regular season, and every game so far has reflected just how even this matchup truly is. Game 5 is back in Tampa, where the Lightning hold home-ice advantage and the pressure is squarely on both sides.

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook

Media(Credit Image: © Andrew J. Kramer/CSM via ZUMA Wire

Brandon Hagel enters Game 5 as the NHL playoff goal-scoring leader, with six goals through four games. The engine behind him has been, as always, Nikita Kucherov, orchestrating Tampa’s attack, picking up two assists in Game 4 alone. Jake Guentzel has also been quietly excellent with a goal and an assist in Game 4, serving as the primary setup man alongside Kucherov. Andrei Vasilevskiy surrendered two goals in Game 4 before Tampa’s comeback, but he has been the backbone of this team’s resilience all series. The key concern for Tampa remains discipline. Game 4 alone featured 17 minor penalties. The Lightning surrendered a 5-on-3 to Montreal in the third period, yet somehow survived it. They can’t keep testing fate.

Tampa Bay — Keys to Victory

NHL Predictions thinks the Lightning need to finally break the series’ strangest trend and win consecutive games for the first time. Head coach Jon Cooper’s group showed tremendous character in Game 4, clawing back from 2-0 down on the road. At home, with the crowd behind them and the experience of a veteran core, they should be emboldened. Tampa Bay ranked fifth in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals, and their transition game is their most dangerous weapon. The Lightning need to generate those quick-strike opportunities before Montreal can set up its defensive structure. They also need to get the power play working. Their 21% regular-season rate ranked 16th in the league, but with a unit featuring Kucherov, Guentzel, and Hagel, the talent is there to punish Montreal’s 78.2% penalty kill.

Montreal Canadiens Outlook

The Canadiens came into this building and stole Game 1 on Slafkovsky’s overtime hat trick. They have shown zero signs of being intimidated. The concern heading into Game 5 is a creeping pattern of third-period penalty trouble. The Canadiens took three penalties in the third period of Game 4 alone, and it nearly cost them dearly. In net, Jakub Dobes finished the regular season 29-10-4 with a 2.78 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage and has been solid but not unbeatable in this series. He will need to be his best on the road in a hostile building.

Montreal Canadiens — Keys to Victory

NHL Predictions thinks Montreal needs to reassert its identity in the first two periods and protect leads better in the third. The Canadiens’ power play clicked at 23.1% this season, ranking 10th in the league. Slafkovsky’s dominance on the man advantage remains a weapon Tampa has not fully solved. Staying out of the penalty box in the third period is non-negotiable. Tampa’s Kucherov-Hagel combination on the power play is simply too dangerous to keep gifting them opportunities late in close games. Montreal must also win the special teams battle early and ride momentum, as this team’s best hockey comes when they play with pace and confidence rather than retreating into a shell.

NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?

This series has been a masterpiece of tension, and Game 5 promises nothing less. The Lightning have the experience factor, the home crowd, and a player in Hagel who is in the form of his life. But Montreal has proven they belong and has already won in Tampa this series. The edge goes to Tampa, on home ice, with Vasilevskiy desperate to reclaim his playoff legacy and a lineup that has found its footing. But don’t expect it to be clean.

Prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 3

Hagel gets his seventh of the series, Kucherov sets up two more, and the Lightning take the series lead for the first time.

Prop Bets of the Night

Disclaimer: Please check social media for the latest lineup news and betting lines before locking in your daily fantasy rosters or using these suggestions as law.

Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.5 Goals (+115) Hagel’s six goals lead all playoff scorers, and Tampa has now scored three goals in three of the four games in this series. They’ll be fired up at home and looking to finally put a stranglehold on this series.

Anytime Scorer – Brandon Hagel (+110) Hagel has scored in all four games of this series and is operating at a level that makes him impossible to ignore. At plus money, this is the best value on the board tonight.

Final Thoughts

This series is close enough to make predictions implausibly predictable. Whether it’s the older veterans or crafty newbies rising up, be sure that it will be a one-goal game. Is that in OT or regulation? Stay tuned…

Main Photo Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

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