May 1, 2026, 12:06 a.m. ET
The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens meet Friday in Game 6 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Puck drop at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Canadiens odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Best-of-7 series: Canadiens lead 3-2
The Canadiens responded in a big way after a tough Game 4 loss, taking a 3-2 series lead Wednesday with a 3-2 win over the Lightning. Montreal got it done as a +134 road underdog, with the Under (5.5) cashing.
LW Alexandre Texier scored the go-ahead goal early in the third, while RW Brendan Gallagher and C Kirby Dach also found the net. Rookie G Jakub Dobes was outstanding, stopping 38 shots. Montreal sits 1 win away from its first playoff series victory since 2021.
The Lightning missed a prime chance to take control of the series at home in Game 5 and now face elimination. Tampa Bay has dropped 10 of its last 12 home playoff games, a surprising stretch despite consistent sellouts.
C Dominic James scored his first postseason goal, and C Jake Guentzel added another, but it wasn’t enough. G Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 24 shots in the loss.
The Lightning head to Montreal needing a win to stay alive. Every game in this series has been decided by 1 goal, setting up another tight battle Friday night.
Watch the NHL on Fubo!Lightning at Canadiens odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated day at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Lightning -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Canadiens -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning -1.5 (+220) | Canadiens +1.5 (-275)Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Canadiens at Lightning projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (38-15-4, 2.35 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Jakub Dobes (29-10-4, 2.78 GAA, .901 SV%)
Dobes came up big in Game 5, turning aside 38 of 40 shots to power the Canadiens to a win. Under heavy pressure all night, he held firm. Dobes is 3-2 this postseason with a 2.49 GAA and .903 SV%, and he’s was 2-1 with a 2.15 GAA and .928 SV% against the Lightning in the regular season.
Vasilevskiy took the Game 5 loss, stopping 21 of 24 shots. He’s now 2-3 this postseason with a 2.68 GAA and .880 SV%. Despite the recent struggles, his career playoff resume remains strong, going 68-53 with a 2.46 GAA, .917 SV% and 7 shutouts.
Canadiens at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction
Canadiens 3, Lightning 2
BET CANADIENS (-105).
Momentum is clearly on the side of the Canadiens as they return to Bell Centre for Game 6 with a chance to close out the series. This young group has matched the Lightning step for step, with all 5 games decided by 1 goal. The atmosphere at home should only add to that edge.
The 24-year-old Dobes has been a steady presence in net, making key saves in high-pressure moments, while Montreal’s speed and physical play have consistently disrupted Tampa Bay’s flow. The Canadiens have also limited the Lightning at 5-on-5, forcing them into tougher scoring situations.
Tampa Bay still has plenty of championship experience, but now faces elimination on the road. With momentum, confidence and the home crowd behind them, Montreal is in a strong position. Back the Canadiens on the moneyline to close it out in Game 6.
PASS. No interest in the puck line in this game.
BET UNDER 5.5 (-110).
The numbers lean toward another tight, low-scoring game between these teams, with the Under hitting in 6 of the last 7 meetings, including the last 4 in this series. Strong goaltending and fewer penalties should keep scoring limited again.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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