Prior to the last two games of the 2025 Western Conference Final, the Edmonton Oilers weren’t changing much about their lineup’s forward group. Evander Kane came in after the first game of the playoffs in Jeff Skinner’s stead, and that had been the most notable edit until this past week. But there was one other switch made, and it came following the Oilers’ heartbreaking Game 3 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights in Round 2.

Kasperi Kapanen took over for Viktor Arvidsson for Game 4 of that series. Since then, Kapanen has often found himself on a line with Leon Draisaitl and either Kane, or Vasily Podkolzin. Finding the right linemates for Draisaitl, and Connor McDavid, has always been a tricky endeavour for the Oilers, and with McDavid having chemistry with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the question has solely become who to pair with Draisaitl.

Did the Oilers stumble upon their answer, as to who to put Draisaitl on a line with?

What has their production been like?

The combinations of Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin/Kane have played five games together, during which the Oilers went 4–1. Their only loss in that span was Game 1 versus Dallas, when the Stars scored three power play goals in six minutes to open the third period. Combined, those two line options have seen exactly 47 minutes of ice time, with most of it being slanted towards the Podkolzin option.

*via https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm

Both combos, the one with Podkolzin and the one with Kane, so far have scored a goal and given up none at their own end. The Podkolzin option has played more minutes together than the de facto “loaded-up” line of Draisaitl, McDavid, and Hyman, and has the most minutes of any Oilers forward line these playoffs without allowing a goal against. The eye test is showing that Draisaitl is playing some of his best defensive hockey with Kapanen and Podkolzin at his flanks.

The goal that Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin scored, of course, was a pretty big one:

Despite the significantly smaller sample size, early returns on Kapanen-Draisaitl-Kane are also very promising. In the fewest minutes played of any Oilers forward line, that trio has so far posted the third-highest Goals For per 60 mark, bested only by the aforementioned loaded-up line, and Arvidsson-Janmark-Podkolzin.

A fancy-stats darling as well

As this observer usually does, let’s check in with MoneyPuck’s Expected Goals chart. Sometimes, no goals against could be the result of solid goaltending masking their mistakes. Stuart Skinner has indeed been exceptional since Game 3 of the Vegas series, so it’s worth the verification.

Both combinations are posting expected goal shares above 50 percent, with Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin especially a force to be reckoned with. That line has the fourth-highest xG% of all forward lines with a minimum of 10 minutes played. The key to their success is more generation at the offensive end; of any line with an Expected Goals Against number lower than their 1.1, only Hyman-McDavid-Draisaitl was posting an Expected Goals For higher than their 1.8 (by a full goal). While there is a bit of defensive luck involved, the advanced stats are showing that Kapanen-Draisaitl-Podkolzin is also a bit unlucky on offence.

It is also worth pointing out Draisaitl’s previous non-McDavid line, with him centring Arvidsson and Podkolzin. That line ultimately broke even on the expected goals front, and the eye test also didn’t necessarily suggest they were performing poorly by any stretch. Kudos to Head Coach Kris Knoblauch by taking a chance on inserting Kapanen in place of Arvidsson; that move has certainly paid off.

Could one of these lines reunite at some point?

This will be an interesting question to answer for the Oilers in the offseason. The fortunate fact is that Podkolzin is signed to a $1M cap hit through next season; his recent play and affordability do a lot to ensure he will return next season. Also, of course, Draisaitl is signed long-term, so that helps.

In the short-term, the answer is maybe. The absence of Hyman severely impacts lineup construction, so it isn’t certain we see either of those two combinations reunite. The Kane option has been gaining steam in recent games, it is worth noting.

Next season is quite likely for both options, but the major question will be surrounding Kapanen, who is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. Should he get a new contract from the Oilers, putting him together with Draisaitl and Podkolzin would give the Oilers a Selke-caliber second line that could frustrate opponents. If Edmonton does not extend Kapanen, Kane can still take his place and perform admirably, but it might not be as potent.

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire

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