The Eastern Conference semi-final is half-finished with the Carolina Hurricanes completing the sweep of the Philadelphia Flyers while the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres have Game 6 on tap for tonight. How did the Hurricanes managed to take four straight games off the Flyers, and how did the Canadiens and Sabres get to this point? Let’s look at that.

Data source: NHL API

In this article, the term “real lines” is defined as three forwards sharing at least 40% of each other’s 5v5 ice time, not as combined on-ice counts.

What Round 2 Has Told Us

Carolina swept Philadelphia not because Frederik Andersen stole it, though he did help at +71 points above his regular-season baseline, but because their depth chart matched up against Philadelphia’s top six and won the comparison everywhere. Montreal is up 3-2 on Buffalo with the most concentrated top line still in the playoffs and a goaltending picture that is barely above replacement; Buffalo is alive on two close wins and a roster they can’t quite cover with.

Carolina 4-0 Philadelphia — The Cleanest Sweep

Carolina is 8-0 in this postseason. It’s the fifth time in NHL history a team has opened a playoff with eight straight wins, and the first in 41 years. The other four: 1952 Detroit, 1960 Montreal, 1969 St. Louis, and 1985 Edmonton. Three of the four won the Cup.

The Round 2 sweep itself is the eighth time Philadelphia has been swept in a playoff series in franchise history, and only the third sweep Carolina has ever authored, with two of those three coming this postseason.

Series Breakdown

Andersen Was the Difference

Frederik Andersen across four starts: .945 SV%, +71 points above his regular-season baseline of .874. By shot distance bucket:

Tight: .960, allowing 1 goal on 25 shots

Slot: .812, allowing 3 on 16

High Slot: .960, allowing 1 on 25

Perimeter 1.000, allowing 0 on 25.

Three of his four zones were essentially shutout-level.

Dan Vladar on the other end: .904 SV%, −2 points versus his regular-season baseline. He played to his baseline. The goaltending edge was entirely on one side.

The Depth Picture

Carolina’s real forward lines by 5v5 TOI share, with each pair sharing at least 40% of each other’s ice time:

Four real lines, every one of them above 64% mutual share. The fourth line played about as cohesively as the top line. On the back end, Jalen Chatfield + Jacob Slavin, with a 94% share and 59.8 minutes, and K’Andre Miller + Sean Walker, with an 87% share and 57.9 minutes, handled the leverage minutes.

Corsi-for, qualified pool:

Carolina’s worst qualified player, at 46.4%, is tied with Philadelphia’s fourth-best. That is the structural reason this was a sweep, before the goaltending.

Where the Damage Concentrated

Carolina on ice goals for out of 13:

Philadelphia on ice goals aganst out of 13:

Philadelphia’s top defensemen ate it. Travis Sanheim played 27:04 a night, up 2:50 versus his regular-season workload, and was on for 7 of 13 goals against. Rasmus Ristolainen played 23:59, up 2:36, and was on for 6. Cam York played 24:08, up 1:36, and was on for 5. All three were over their regular-season workloads, and all three were on for more Carolina goals than any of Philadelphia’s forwards.

Montreal 3-2 Buffalo — Montreal Leads, but Buffalo Can’t Hold a Lead

Five games played. Montreal leads 3-2, with Game 6 in Montreal on Saturday night. Montreal is playing the most complete hockey of any team left in the East. They’ve outshot Buffalo 149-131, generated more attempts in every distance bucket, and their top line has been the most cohesive unit on either side. Buffalo is alive on the back of two close wins, 4-2 in Game 1 and 3-2 in Game 4, and one of the most inconsistent goaltending pictures of any second-round team.

Series Breakdown

Both power plays are over 27%. Both top lines are above 90% mutual TOI share, the two most concentrated top lines remaining in the playoffs.

Buffalo’s Lead Problem

In Buffalo’s three losses, they led for some part of two of them and lost both decisively:

Game 2, 5-1 loss: Montreal scored at 1:36 of the first. Buffalo never led.

Game 3, 6-2 loss: Buffalo led 1-0 at 0:53 of the first. Montreal scored four unanswered to lead 4-1, then closed it out 6-2, including one empty-netter.

Game 5, 6-3 loss: Buffalo led 1-0, 2-1, then 3-2 in the first period. Montreal scored four unanswered through the middle of the second to take it 5-3, then capped it at 6-3 in the third.

Two of the three losses were leads that turned into six-goal Montreal nights. In the two games Buffalo won, the scores were 4-2 and 3-2, close enough for Alex Lyon to hold a one- or two-goal lead. The pattern: Buffalo’s goaltending can lock up a low-scoring game, but once Montreal gets a second goal, the games tend to blow open.

Goaltending series-to-date:

Alex Lyon, BUF: 3 GS, .872 SV%, −35 versus regular-season baseline. By distance bucket:

Tight bucket: .733, allowing 12 goals on 45 shots – Lyon is bleeding in close.

 High slot and perimeter have been fine at .944 and .941.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, BUF: 2 GS, .870 SV%, −40 versus regular-season baseline. Buffalo has rotated starts between Lyon and Luukkonen; neither has been above baseline.

Jakub Dobes, MTL: 5 GS, .901 SV%, +0 versus regular-season baseline, exactly his baseline. Dobes has not been the reason Montreal is winning. He has been sufficient.

Real Lines and Where the Damage Goes

Montreal’s top line of Nick Suzuki / Cole Caufield / Juraj Slafkovsky, at 91% mutual TOI, is the most concentrated line still standing in the playoffs. Lane Hutson is logging 23:21 a night with six points, and the Alex Newhook / Ivan Demidov / Jake Evans secondary line has produced like a real second line, with Newhook and Demidov posting six and five points, respectively.

Buffalo’s real top line is Josh Doan / Josh Norris / Zach Benson at 90% mutual share, and that unit is carrying the offense; Doan leads Buffalo with seven points. The nominal top line of Alex Tuch / Peyton Krebs / Tage Thompson, at 73%, has been the second unit by production. Tuch has 0 points in 5 games, and Tuch and Thompson have each been on the ice for 10 goals against. The top of Buffalo’s lineup is being out-played, the back end is being out-covered, and the goaltending is not bailing them out.

Closing Thoughts

Carolina at 8-0 is the most historically loaded story of the round, and probably the league. Four prior teams have started a playoff with eight straight wins and three of them won the Cup. That kind of company doesn’t promise anything, but it tells you what a sweep-then-sweep run looks like when the structure is real.

Carolina is waiting on Montreal-Buffalo, with the Hurricanes in the rare position of being the depth team against either possible opponent. We’ll preview both matchups in the next column.