With just over five weeks remaining until the 2026 NHL Draft, there continue to be varying opinions on how the top of the board will shake out on Jun. 26 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York.
The Chicago Blackhawks hold the rights to the fourth overall pick, and the player they select will largely be determined by what the Toronto Maple Leafs, San Jose Sharks, and Vancouver Canucks do ahead of them.
At this stage, the expectation is for the Maple Leafs to draft winger Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 pick, but there are still some who believe Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg is in the mix. Last Friday, Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala ranked the top 45 prospects in the 2026 Draft Class, and Stenberg was at the top of his list, ahead of McKenna.
Compared to most top draft scouts and analysts, Stenberg being ahead of McKenna is the minority opinion. The Leafs will likely end up choosing McKenna when it’s all said and done, but Stenberg’s more balanced skillset and higher floor make for an intriguing debate.
Playing in the top professional league in Sweden this season, Stenberg thrived against grown men as an 18-year-old, recording 33 points (11G, 22A) in 43 appearances for Frolunda. His 0.77 points-per-game margin is the second-highest in SHL history among draft-eligible skaters, ahead of notables like Peter Forsberg, Henrik Sedin, and Leo Carlsson, and trailing only Daniel Sedin.
Stenberg might not possess as much upside as McKenna, but he’s an elite offensive talent in his own right. Between the two, he’s also the far more impactful and engaged defender, and there’s fewer questions about his game without the puck. Like most talented Swedish prospects coming through the country’s system these days, Stenberg doesn’t cheat for offense and makes a concerted effort defensively. He’s the more polished and well-rounded prospect, but that likely won’t be enough for him to leapfrog McKenna and become the top overall selection.
The more legitimate discussion is what San Jose will do once they are on the clock with the second overall pick. That decision will swing what transpires in the picks that follow, especially for the Blackhawks. Will Sharks’ GM Mike Grier add yet another uber-talented forward in Stenberg, or potentially Caleb Malhotra, to place alongside Macklin Celebrini, Michael Misa, and Will Smith? Or does he address his teams’ thin defensive pipeline with one of Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff, or Albert Smits?
That’s the question everyone is seeking the answer to, including those in the industry who are releasing mock drafts this time of year. Since the results of the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery two weeks ago, notables like Chris Peters (FloHockey), Craig Button (TSN), Steven Ellis (Daily Faceoff), Cam Robinson (Elite Prospects), and Sam Costentino (Sportsnet) have each posted their respective mock drafts, projecting how the first round will sort out in late June.
Each of those five mock drafts had Toronto taking McKenna first overall, while Peters, Button, Robinson, and Cosentino all had San Jose selecting a defenseman with the second pick. Ellis was the only one of the bunch projecting the Sharks to draft Stenberg at No. 2. It’s also worth pointing out that all five had the Vancouver Canucks picking Caleb Malhotra with the third overall selection.
Well, another mock draft was released on Tuesday morning from The Athletic‘s Scott Wheeler and Corey Pronman, who put their heads together to predict all 63 picks in the first two rounds. In similar fashion to the mock drafts mentioned above, Wheeler and Pronman had Toronto taking McKenna first, the Sharks going with Reid, a defenseman, second, and the Canucks choosing Caleb Malhotra third. Once again, the Blackhawks were left with Stenberg falling into their lap.
The decision won’t be an easy one for Grier and the Sharks, but Wheeler and Pronman predict Reid ultimately winds up being their choice at No. 2. Pronman specifically mentioned Stenberg as an intriguing option, but securing a potential top-pairing defenseman is too essential for San Jose’s rebuild.
“The Sharks get a foundational defense piece they’ve needed throughout their rebuild, as Reid projects to run a power play and log a lot of minutes in the NHL,” Pronman wrote. “Ivar Stenberg is tempting here, but the stars feel like they would align too well for the Sharks and Reid, given how close the two players are in talent.”
Wheeler and Pronman continued the trend with Malhotra being the choice over Stenberg for Vancouver. Pronman noted Malhotra’s local ties and mentioned him potentially becoming the Canucks’ future captain.
With Stenberg still available at No. 4, as he’s been in a vast majority of mock drafts released so far, GM Kyle Davidson and the Blackhawks are ecstatic to add another high-end forward to their prospect pool. Chicago’s future up front would be absurdly talented, with a group that includes Connor Bedard, Anton Frondell, Frank Nazar, Roman Kantserov, Oliver Moore, and Stenberg.
“Chicago adds the most dynamic player left on the board in Stenberg, a potential top-line winger with a high compete level, even if it makes its core forward group a bit on the smaller side,” Pronman wrote.
Yes, adding Stenberg gives the Blackhawks yet another undersized forward inside their top six long term, but there’s no chance they’d even consider passing on him if he’s still available. Giving Bedard and Co. more support is the top priority, and Davidson checks that box by picking Stenberg.
As a reminder, mock drafts must be taken with a grain of salt this time of year. What one certain analyst, writer, or scout believes does not necessarily mean that’s what will happen come Jun. 26. However, there’s no denying that Stenberg falling to the Blackhawks with the fourth pick has a better chance than initially anticipated following the results from the NHL Draft Lottery.
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