The rumours are picking up that the Edmonton Oilers might well move out Darnell Nurse this summer. For that to happen, Nurse would have to agree to the trade, as he’s got a full No Movement Clause until next summer, after the 2026-27 season. In the summer of 2027, he can be traded to all but the ten teams he places on a no-trade list.
The theory is that Nurse, 31, might move now when he can control where he ends up. At age 31, after 11 full seasons in Edmonton, he faced an avalanche of criticism this past season unlike anything he’s experienced before in Edmonton, with even mainstream media sources picking up on the complaints of the large faction of fans who hope to see him traded away.
In a social media poll, 80 per cent of respondents wanted to see him traded, though many would only want him moved if the Oilers don’t have to retain much or any of his $9.25 million per year deal, which runs four more NHL seasons until 2029-30. Others would only move him if there’s a solid return for him.
poll
I’m starting to think it’s a distinct possibility the Oilers will be able to get something of value in return for Nurse and won’t have to swallow much of a poison pill in terms of salary retention, maybe not anything at all.
Nurse
A number of factors combine to make Nurse a valuable player for other teams.
1. First, the salary cap is going up to $104 million per team, so his cap hit isn’t as onerous as it was previously. For teams on a budget, they’ll also like that Edmonton front-loaded Nurse’s contract, meaning he’ll only be paid $8 million next year, then $7.25 million per year in his final three seasons. If a team is on a budget and also has plenty of cap space, his salary wouldn’t be the huge weight it is in cap-strapped Edmonton.
2. The free agent market for NHL d-men isn’t bursting with strong bets. With the cap going up, teams will have more money to spend, but who are they going to buy? Top-scoring UFAs Darren Raddysh, John Carlson and Rasmus Andersson could all sign with their existing teams. After that the drop-off is significant with few solid bets for a decent Top 4 d-man.
3. Nurse has struggled in the playoffs five years running, the main reason that so many people are keen to see him traded.
But in the regular season, he’s been inconsistent but good on average. He’s been an effective and physical second-pairing d-man, a solid #3 on a good Oilers team.
If we look at Edmonton’s Top 4 left shot d-men the past five years, Nurse has had more even strength time on ice per game than all of Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman and Brett Kulak, he’s had the highest rate of hits per 60 even strength of all four, and he’s third out of four for points per 60 even strength.
If we compare him to all 250 regular NHL d-men in that period (more than 1,000 even strength minutes played), Nurse ranks 87th overall for points scoring rate, 42nd overall for hits, and 40th for ice time at even strength.
Not bad at all.
He’s a big, tough, durable d-man, still in his prime, who on average brings a solid, effective game during the regular season.
polls
4. We see the same about Nurse in our Cult of Hockey video review of his contributions to Grade A shots and mistakes on Grade A shots against at even strength.
Ekholm has been better than him the past four seasons, but Nurse has outperformed both the inconsistent Jake Walman and Brett Kulak, who have both been much better in the playoffs than in regular season play.
regular season
5. If Nurse had played as well in the playoffs as he did in the regular season, I doubt there’d be much criticism of him and even less trade talk. Unfortunately, in each of the last five playoffs, Nurse has significantly under-achieved in the all-important playoffs in comparison to his regular season play.
He seems to be far more hesitant with puck in the playoffs and far more erratic in his reads. I don’t know why? All I know is that his Grade A shots plus-minus regularly crashes in the playoffs.
These past five playoff seasons, he’s been by far the weakest of Edmonton’s left-shot d-men, well behind Walman and Kulak, who rise up each year in the playoffs, and behind Ekholm, who is consistently good, regular season and playoffs both.
playoffs
For years I’ve been optimistic that Nurse will reverse this trend in the playoffs. Perhaps he will finally do so this coming season. But I’ve given up hope that will happen with the Oilers, which is why I’m in favour of the team moving him out, if possible. I say this even as I know that local observers of Nurse, including me, may well be too negatively impacted by his playoff play, overlooking his overall value. That said, playoff success is all-important in Edmonton just now.
For a team that has failed to make the playoffs in some time, a team with ample cap space and major holes on defence, a team in need of a big, tough, fierce and able two-way defender, Nurse is a solid bet.
He could be a valuable piece in the surge of one team or another. And a fresh start in a new city might be just what he needs to ignite his career once again.
I can see a market for Nurse, with multiple teams interested. I can also see one or two of these teams being a good fit for Nurse.
How do you see it?
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