The Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6) largely played to expectations in the 2025-26 season. Despite a skid early in the season (1-3-3 in their first seven games) and several injuries along the way, they stormed all the way to the second spot in an extremely competitive Atlantic Division. There were months, such as November (11-3-0) and January (11-1-1), where they looked unstoppable.
Unfortunately, the magic ran out rather quickly. In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, they engaged in a first-round bout with the Montreal Canadiens that featured several go-ahead and overtime-winning goals, but unfortunately, they were on the losing end of the series. They lost in seven games.
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It was a valiant effort, but the Lightning are one more year removed from their Stanley Cup victory in the 2020-21 season. Their core is getting older, and Julien BriseBois might have to make some tough decisions this offseason.
Lightning captain Victor Hedman’s injuries could’ve derailed the defensive core of Tampa Bay. Instead, an unsung hero came out of nowhere. Darren Raddysh, who was mostly used on the second or third pair, scored 22 goals and earned 70 points in 73 games. His previous career high was 37 points in 73 games.
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Unfortunately for the Lightning, Raddysh becomes a free agent this offseason. Coming off the heels of a career season, he’s expected to be the top defenseman in free agency. However, Tampa Bay gets first dibs.
AFP Analytics suggests he can get over $8 million a year for six years. For a guy who just turned 30, is that money worth it? BriseBois will have to decide.
Do the Lightning extend Nikita Kucherov this offseason?
Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov (86) during a stop in play at Rogers Arena.
If this offseason couldn’t get any more bonkers for Tampa Bay, they need to come to terms with Nikita Kucherov. The two-time Hart winner is slated to be a UFA next season.
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BriseBois knows that Kucherov’s extension is a high priority. Kucherov’s play-making ability drives nearly the entirety of Tampa Bay’s offense, and he’s a dominant force with the puck on his stick. Despite some playoff disappointments recently, Kucherov is the best player on the Lightning and an irreplaceable asset.
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With the NHL’s salary cap increasing, Kucherov will surely get a raise from his $9.5 million a season term he was making with his old deal. He could be bargaining for something in the $12-14 million-a-year range. However, the Lightning will have some cap maneuvering to do to get to that point. They’re projected to have just $12.32 million in cap next season, which means they will need to shed cap space.
How do the Lightning get cap space?
The Lightning will still need cap space to re-sign Darren Raddysh and Nikita Kucherov, maybe even for going after a free agent. That might point to moving Nick Paul.
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He has been a stable part of the Lightning’s forward core, with his two-way abilities and positional flexibility proving immensely valuable. However, this season was a nightmare for him. He had just 15 points in 51 games, dealing with injuries nearly the whole season.
Paul still has three seasons left of a seven-year, $22.05 million deal he signed in the 2022 offseason. That was a reasonable term at the time, but if the Tampa Bay Lightning want to shed payroll, they could trade him. He has just a 16-team no-trade list, so the Lightning could try to ship him for picks or a young center.