Every single team in the NHL follows the same path from taking their foot off the gas just ever so slightly to rebuild — in an either tear-it-all-down sort of way or just making some key trades to set them on the right course — but it is the end result that truly matters. Some period of not being competitive at all, to varying degrees, which is then hopefully followed by a longer stretch of time where the team is competitive and potentially even contending for the Stanley Cup.
The Philadelphia Flyers went with a path that not everyone agreed with. They were not going to trade every single veteran and sink to the bottom of the standings to maximize their luck in the draft lottery and hope to pick in the top three selections for a few years. They made some moves to get worse and being able to select players like Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone was a by-product of that, but not really the goal to completely get a top pick or two.
Similarly, the Detroit Red Wings did the same. Whether it was poor draft lottery luck or just never really sinking down to the bottom, they have only selected as high as fourth overall (where they got winger Lucas Raymond) but have multiple top-10 selections when most traditional rebuilds would have been aiming for the very top of the draft.
And now, a decade without playoffs later and the homegrown, hometown team captain wants out of Detroit. They’re in a nightmare scenario where they might need to start their rebuild all over again, or at least make a lateral move whenever they do trade Dylan Larkin and continue down the same path of mediocrity and potentially missing out on the playoffs. They have seen Buffalo, Ottawa, and Montreal, all leapfrog them in their own division and now are facing doomsday.
The Flyers did not rebuild for as long as the Red Wings — and have arguably reached at least level with Detroit since they just made the playoffs and are looking to improve — but general manager Danny Briere and co. need to look over to Michigan and understand what went completely wrong there, and learn from it. Philadelphia does not have a perfect front office, of course, and there is a world where they find themselves in a similar hole and have nothing to show for it.
The next summer or two are crucial for the Flyers and what happened to the Red Wings during their own crucial summers led them to where they are now. There are lessons to learn here.
Making the right additions at the right time
When Steve Yzerman decided that now was the time for the Red Wings to make the leap from a draft lottery team to striving for the playoffs in the tough Atlantic Division, he made a boatload of additions to supplement the young talent that he drafted and developed. It was an attempt to fill out the roster so that the floor was raised and the young players to then take them as high as they can go.
But it kind of failed miserably.
The Red Wings signed forwards Andrew Copp and J.T. Compher to sizeable contracts, they signed defenseman Ben Chiarot and have now signed him to an extension, and got older blueliners like Travis Hamonic involved. And now they are just rotting on their roster and sinking them down even further than necessary.
They did make some solid additions like seeing if Patrick Kane can be an all-offense winger again. David Perron was a decent signing for two seasons, but then they brought him back at this past trade deadline for some reason. And then obviously adding Alex DeBrincat was a smart move after his failed stint in Ottawa. Oh, and Mason Appleton is a good low-risk signing too.
But, they just needed to get that ceiling raised so desperately and they did nothing of the sort. Just getting the same sort of mid-level player that coaches might like because of their experience, but they bring nothing but a 35-point campaign to the table while playing in your middle six, or being just an old defenseman who can’t move well at all.
We can see this idea sort of trickling in for the Flyers with the signing and re-signing of Christian Dvorak, but if that is the only addition that Danny Briere makes of that ilk, then it is livable. It’s not perfect, but we would much rather have Dvorak than Compher right now.
While the Red Wings felt it was necessary to bring in all of this talent to surround the younger players that they themselves drafted, the Flyers have the benefit of already having some homegrown players on the roster — and maybe having too much of them. There is no real room to make these bevy of additions, but it can be something later on that Philadelphia runs into if there are holes to fill on this roster.
For instance, don’t trade Rasmus Ristolainen to then just replace him with another version of Rasmus Ristolainen and lower the ceiling of this team automatically. That’s the obvious one.
But the other big lesson goes beyond the small additions. It is all about the strategy on the draft floor.
Not settling into a certain type at the Draft
If you just take a glance at the players that the Red Wings drafted with the top selections that were available to them, there is a trends. Sure, some of hit massively like Raymond and Moritz Seider, but the other players that are now playing roles (or are supposed to be playing roles) on this team are of the same ilk.
It’s unfair to go as far back as 2017 when they selected Michael Rasmussen at ninth overall, but that is really following the same trend that we’re seeing lately. Filip Zadina went in 2018 at sixth overall — passing over hometown Quinn Hughes who was playing in their backyard at the University of Michigan, but that’s another story. And then Seider and Raymond back-to-back appeared to be two massively perfect selections.
Since then? Well, nothing.
Simon Edvinsson was a solid but a really safe option at sixth overall in 2021. Marco Kasper is bound to be a good third-line forward and at eighth overall, that’s extremely rich. Nate Danielson at ninth overall is astounding since he is really just another third-line forward, who might be in a supporting role on the second line — but he hasn’t even made the NHL yet. And then even just two years ago, getting Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is another extremely safe option at 15th overall when more dynamic talents like Cole Eiserman or Michael Hage were available.
It’s an obvious trend of going for comfortable options with their top-15 picks, instead of going for the higher-upside players. And if you do that enough, then you’re left with an NHL roster full of just-alright players who have an extremely limited ceiling.
For the Flyers, again, we’re seeing that.
With the selections of Jett Luchanko and most recently Jack Nesbitt, they’re two centers that should very well play hundreds of games in the NHL, but to what end? There is more safety in those selections than really striving to ice the best team as possible. And even when looking at later in the most recent draft, with Shane Vansaghi, Carter Amico, and Matthew Gard being three of their four second-round selections — it just doesn’t grade out as a front office looking to get players in the draft that are not available elsewhere.
Drafting those players are fine, since nailing down some homegrown middle-six forwards is always a nice thing to have for the next decade, but if the Flyers just keep on getting more and more of that same prospect with a limited ceiling, then they could certainly end up where the Red Wings are right now and are still depending on their 30-year-old captain and a couple of young stars to carry them, rather than adding some potentially similar players to be at the top of their lineup.
Going for it when it’s obvious
And finally, the other part of roster building is making trades, and sometimes it’s the trades that you don’t make that matter more than the trades that you do make.
It felt so glaringly obvious for the Red Wings to part with some of their drafted talent to acquire Quinn Hughes from the Vancouver Canucks last season. Again, the hometown defenseman can play where he spends all his time and where his family live, and all it would take is to get rid of a collection of first-round prospects you drafted.
And now, Hughes is in Minnesota. If the star blueliner ended up in Michigan instead, the Red Wings would probably have been in the playoffs and could have gone on a similar run that the Montreal Canadiens just did. Dylan Larkin would be happy to stay alongside his Team USA teammate and there would be a clear path forward for this team.
But no, because of past mistakes and not getting the most out of their roster, and then failing to see that now is the time to truly go out and get a star defenseman who is so, so, so rarely available like Hughes was, the Red Wings are in this disastrous mess.
For the Flyers, it is filling those holes and striking when some players become available. Whether it is Larkin himself, or someone like Mat Barzal, or in a couple years when Adam Fantilli is sick of losing in Columbus — the Flyers need to prepare themselves for this big move to take them to the next level.
It will involve not falling in love with the prospects you drafted, or thinking too much about the draft picks you’re going to give up, or even not caring that much about how trading a roster player will affect the locker room. If getting that star first-line center means disrupting a friendship on the roster, then so be it. You’re going to win more hockey games and that’s the goal of this whole thing.
This is one lesson that I’m more confident that the Flyers already know about.
We’ve heard from Flyers management that they are willing to go out and get star players when they become available — it is now just gearing themselves up for that time and striking when the opportunity arises. They may end up being too picky and trying to wait for the perfect player to become available, but that is to be seen.
It’s just being smart about your timeline. And considering the Flyers were one of the youngest playoff teams this year, the timeline is longer than most but if they wait even just a couple more years for the right player to pop their head up and want out from their current team, then time can pass them by.
The Flyers just need to avoid all of these mistakes that the Red Wings have made and then they can maybe get closer to winning a Cup than them. Or maybe they do all of these things but just better and it works out anyways. Oh well.