BUFFALO, N.Y. − Technically, it’s not over.
The Blue Jackets (39-28-12) are still alive in a tight playoff race following a stinging 5-0 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on April 9, but a pile of points that got away is now a mountain in the rearview.
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More: Columbus Blue Jackets blanked by Buffalo Sabres. Replay
Things are so tight in the NHL’s Eastern Conference that even one more regulation loss wouldn’t officially burst the Jackets’ playoff bubble, but missing the postseason for a sixth straight year has become their most likely fate going into the season’s last three games.
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Conor Garland (83) skates with the puck as Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (23) defends during the first period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Conor Garland (83) skates with the puck as Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (23) defends during the first period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres goaltender Colten Ellis (92) on the ice before the start of a game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres right wing Jack Quinn (22) skates with the puck as Columbus Blue Jackets center Charlie Coyle (3) defends during the first period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres center Peyton Krebs (19) celebrates his goal with center Josh Norris (9) during the first period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
A general view of a Columbus Blue Jackets jersey worn by a player against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres center Josh Norris (9) and Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) go after a loose puck during the second period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres center Josh Norris (9) tries to deflect a shot as Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves (73) makes a glove save during the second period cat KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves (73) makes a save on Buffalo Sabres right wing Alex Tuch (89) during the second period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres right wing Alex Tuch (89) skates up ice with the puck during the second period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets center Sean Monahan (23) defends as Buffalo Sabres center Tyson Kozak (48) shoots the puck up ice during the second period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves (73) makes a save during the second period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) knocks the puck off the stick of Buffalo Sabres right wing Jack Quinn (22) during the second period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves (73) makes a save during the second period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) skates with the puck as Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Ivan Provorov (9) defends during the third period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Mason Marchment (17) waits for the face-off during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets left wing Danton Heinen (43) skates with the puck as Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) tries to defend during the first period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres center Peyton Krebs (19) celebrates his goal with teammates during the first period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli (19) looks to make a pass during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Buffalo Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson (23) knocks Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Conor Garland (83) off the puck during the first period at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Ivan Provorov (9) takes a shot on goal during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
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Blue Jackets clash with Sabres in Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets center Sean Monahan (23) waits for the face-off during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.
(Timothy T. Ludwig/Imagn Images)
It’s a shocking difference from where they sat 10 games ago, going into a 1-0 loss to the New York Islanders on March 22. Since that frustrating night, the Blue Jackets have gone 2-7-1 following a sterling 19-2-4 run that took them from last in the East to second in the Metropolitan Division on March 24.
It’s been a mind-numbing fall from grace, even for a franchise that has qualified for the playoffs only six times in its first 25 years of existence.
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How did this happen?
The reasons are numerous, but here are six most responsible for the Jackets’ nosedive:
Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenskileft(8) chats with right wing Kirill Marchenko during a game against the Sharks on March 28.
As games grew in importance, opposing teams began paying a lot more attention to defending the Blue Jackets’ top players, specifically Zach Werenski and Kirill Marchenko.
It worked, essentially negating Marchenko and holding Werenski in check compared to his offensive production as a whole. Werenski has five points on two goals and three assists in the Jackets’ 2-7-1 slump after averaging nearly a point-per-game beforehand, while Marchenko’s scoring line of 1-6-7 in those 10 games is far below his usual goal output.
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Blue Jackets coach Rick Bowness mentioned before the loss in Buffalo that Marchenko is playing through pain stemming from an undisclosed injury, so that’s part of it, but the highly skilled forward has also struggled dealing with increased physicality and defensive attention.
Werenski has too, as teams have raised their level of physical play against those two plus top center Adam Fantilli. The results are striking, as the Jackets’ offense went from one of the NHL’s most dangerous to scoring 16 goals in their past 10 games.
Bruins center Pavel Zacha celebrates scoring a goal in the final minute past Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves on March 29.
The final score in the Jackets’ most recent loss to the Sabres, 5-0, makes it look like Buffalo dominated Columbus from start to finish. But that’s not true. The Blue Jackets outplayed the Sabres by a slight margin in the first period while allowing the first goal and then dominated play in the second without scoring.
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As they’ve done quite a bit this season, the Jackets hit posts, crossbars, fumbled pucks to nix scoring chances and struggled to beat a third-string goalie whose confidence skyrocketed with every shot he stopped. Colten Ellis made a few outstanding saves, but Natural Stat Trick’s statistical breakdown shows the Blue Jackets failed to capitalize on a 16-6 edge in high-danger scoring chances that included 13-6 at even strength.
It wasn’t a one-off, either.
That’s happened to the Jackets too often in what’s fast becoming a lost season, including a 2-1 loss March 26 in Montreal to start a six-game winless skid.
Key injuries put Columbus Blue Jackets into tailspin
That loss in Montreal was detrimental for another reason, as defenseman Damon Severson sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in the third period. That subtracted Werenski’s primary defensive partner from the top pairing and removed one of the Jackets’ top penalty killers.
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The Jackets then lost power forward Dmitri Voronkov to a hand injury in their next game, a 3-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks on March 28, before losing Mathieu Olivier, their best power forward, in a 4-3 shootout loss March 29 to the Boston Bruins.
Olivier was a key part of a checking line that frustrated top lines with physical play and key depth scoring, and losing Voronkov removed what might have been a suitable replacement.
Blue Jackets center Sean Monahan (right) and center Charlie Coyle react to a goal by Hurricanes left wing Nikolaj Ehlers on March 31.
Columbus Blue Jackets wilted against intense forechecking
The losses to San Jose and Boston started the Jackets’ tailspin, but the way those games unraveled made things far worse. They mapped out a blueprint for the Carolina Hurricanes, Winnipeg Jets and any other team willing to risk putting all five skaters inside the Columbus blue line in a high risk/high reward forechecking strategy.
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The Blue Jackets were stifled in three straight games by a 2-1-2 forechecking setup deploying two forwards low in the zone, one stationed in the high slot and two defensemen pressing on the Jackets’ exit pass targets. The intense pressure forced a lot of turnovers while the Blue Jackets tried to make plays through it, and their offensive presence was almost entirely negated.
They were held to 25 shots and 10 shots in consecutive losses to the Hurricanes before the Jets outshot them 26-16 in the Jackets’ 2-1 loss April 4 at Nationwide Arena. Columbus shot totals have since ballooned against the Red Wings and Sabres, but neither of those teams turned up the forechecking heat in nearly the same way.
Bruins center Pavel Zacha (18) celebrates scoring a goal in the final minute past Blue Jackets goaltender Jet Greaves on March 29.
Special teams betray Columbus Blue Jackets again
Since downing the Seattle Kraken 5-2 on March 31, the Blue Jackets’ special teams have bottomed out. After a lengthy run with impressive form on power plays and penalty kills, their success vanished at the most critical point in the season.
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In their past 11 games, the Blue Jackets are 2 for 24 for an 8% success rate that ranks last in the NHL (32nd) and 15 for 24 killing penalties for a 62.5% success rate that ranks 30th in the league.
Severson played on the top penalty-killing unit and second power-play group, so his loss looms large, but the Blue Jackets’ struggle on special teams is something that keeps biting them.
San Jose Sharks left wing William Eklund (72) trips on the stick of Columbus Blue Jackets center Charlie Coyle (3) in the third period of the NHL game at Nationwide Arena on Saturday, March 28, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.
Columbus Blue Jackets wore down in March
The NHL and Blue Jackets postponed a game against the Los Angeles Kings on Jan. 26 despite the Kings being in town for the game.
This became a big issue for the Blue Jackets when the game was rescheduled for March 9 at Nationwide Arena, giving them an additional back-to-back set that concluded March 10 in Tampa while pushing their monthly game total to a franchise high of 17.
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After losing a 2-1 lead starting the third period against the Sharks, who then won on a late goal in regulation, Bowness said his team’s legs “weren’t there.”
The Jackets had a practice day between games going into that one, but it was an optional. The far bigger issue was playing their 15th game in 28 days, and they still had two more left in the 31-day month.
Those were losses to the Bruins and Hurricanes, including a 3-0 lead that vanished against Boston in the Jackets’ NHL high 21st blown lead in a third period.
Blue Jackets reporter Brian Hedger can be reached at bhedger@dispatch.com and @BrianHedger.bsky.social
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: 6 reasons Columbus Blue Jackets plummeted in playoff chase