LAS VEGAS — At this point, the Conn Smythe Trophy race isn’t really a race anymore.

Barring an astonishing twist over the remainder of the Stanley Cup Final, if the Vegas Golden Knights win, Mitch Marner has separated himself from the field to such a degree that it’s difficult to construct a realistic alternative case. He’s leading the playoffs in scoring, has delivered in virtually every big moment (like scoring the fastest hat trick in Stanley Cup Final history Saturday night) and now sits at the center of a Vegas team that is two wins away from its second championship in four years.

The challenge isn’t finding reasons Marner should win. It’s finding reasons somebody else might become the playoff MVP even if Carolina comes back and wins its second Stanley Cup in 20 years.

If Vegas wins, it’s hard at this point to even consider a way one of his teammates can overtake the first-year Golden Knights star.

Brett Howden leads all playoff performers with 13 goals. Logan Stankoven leads the Canes with 10. Before the series, it looked like Golden Knights goalie Carter Hart and Hurricanes goalie Freddie Andersen were going to be formidable competition for Marner. But they have each allowed 12 goals in the Stanley Cup Final with Andersen getting pulled in an epic Game 3 and Hart giving away a four-goal lead in the third period before Shea Theodore’s double-overtime winner saved him and the Golden Knights.

The favoriteMitch Marner

Where do we start?

Marner has been a driver of the Golden Knights’ success all spring, picking up at least a point in 16 of 19 playoff games. He scored the series-clinching goal when they eliminated the Utah Mammoth in Round 1 and produced the highlight of the entire playoffs the night they eliminated the Anaheim Ducks in Round 2, shaking off a defender and pulling the puck through his legs before scoring just a minute into that game. He’s registered a point in all three games of the Stanley Cup Final so far and delivered a career-defining performance in Game 3, scoring a natural hat trick while adding an assist in a span of 6:26.

Not only does Marner sit at 28 points for the playoffs, eight ahead of his next best teammate in Jack Eichel, he’s also a league-best plus-16. He’s been an all-situations superstar.

It’s fair to say he left any questions about his ability to deliver in the biggest moments back in Toronto.

If the Canes rally

In the history of Conn Smythe voting, only six players from losing teams won the trophy, including Connor McDavid two years ago. But so many Canes offset each other that we could see a scenario where Marner becomes the seventh if Carolina comes back and wins the Cup.

Just look at it this way: The strongest evidence Marner has effectively clinched the Conn Smythe may be that Carolina doesn’t have a consensus challenger. Stankoven, Taylor Hall, Nikolaj Ehlers, Jackson Blake and Andersen each have pathways to the trophy. Carolina’s case is divided among several candidates while Vegas’ case is concentrated almost entirely in one.

Taylor Hall

Carolina’s leading point-producer in these playoffs and the left winger on the most dominant individual forward line in these playoffs. The Hall-Stankoven-Blake trio sits at 72 percent expected goals in 180 even-strength minutes together this spring. Part of the challenge, at least when it comes to identifying Conn Smythe candidates, is deciphering who deserves the most credit for that. While Stankoven has shot it in the net more often, Hall has been a zone-entry machine who plays with speed and heaviness. He’s been a difference-maker who could still build a playoff MVP case if he plays a central role in a championship comeback.

Logan Stankoven

Tied for second in the NHL with Marner and Pavel Dorofeyev with 10 goals, the 5-foot-8 forward has been a ball of energy for the efficient second line from the start of the postseason.

He has scored big goals on the line with Hall and Blake, the biggest coming in Game 2 of the final when the Canes needed somebody to step up in the middle of the third period with absolutely nothing going on. Out of nowhere, off a faceoff, Stankoven won a puck battle against the bigger Rasmus Andersson and scored a huge goal to spark the Canes comeback en route to an overtime victory on Seth Jarvis’ power-play goal.

As coach Rod Brind’Amour said after the game, Stankoven may be undersized, but you can’t measure how big this kid’s heart is.

Jackson Blake

One third of the proficient Stankoven line, Blake is shifty as can be and has had a postseason full of big plays.

While he has had a somewhat quiet Stanley Cup Final, former NHL forward Jason Blake’s son scored the series-clinching goal against Philadelphia and exemplifies the heart and grit of this relentless Carolina team.

Nikolaj Ehlers

Ehlers scored the first two goals of this Stanley Cup Final by demonstrating the kind of panache no other Hurricanes skater is capable of. He’s the master of the quick strike and would need to build a Conn Smythe case based more on narrative than sheer numbers. Basically, it would take a monster individual performance in the business end of this series, but given Ehlers’ skill set it can’t be ruled out entirely.

Frederik Andersen

Andersen ran through the first three rounds with a 12-1 record, but after allowing 12 goals in the first three games of this series, he was pulled after a four-goal second period by the Golden Knights in Game 3 and now there’s discussion on whether or not he’ll actually start Game 4.

Andersen has allowed three or more goals in nine straight games against Vegas, so there’s definite reasoning to come back with Brandon Bussi after he allowed one goal on 19 shots in Game 3 in relief of Andersen.

Andersen had a terrific postseason before this series, giving up two or fewer goals in 12 starts and playing tremendously in the close-out game of the conference final against Montreal despite finding out about the tragic loss of his mentor and agent Claude Lemieux the day before.

If Vegas wins and it’s not Marner

Marner is such a favorite to win if Vegas wins that five Carolina players have better odds to win the Conn Smythe than the next-best Golden Knight. Here’s a look at the contenders, though they would need to have monster games the rest of the series to overtake Marner.

Brett Howden

Howden leads the Golden Knights with 13 goals — tied with Jonathan Marchessault’s franchise record when he won the Conn Smythe in 2023.

He scored in Game 1 as Vegas rallied from an early deficit. He scored twice in Game 2 before the Canes rallied. His 13 goals is one more than he had in the entire regular season.

Jack Eichel

Three years ago, inside the Golden Knights organization, it was clear they felt the wrong guy won the Conn Smythe. Eichel led them with 26 points – the team record for a postseason before Marner’s current 28.

Eichel has been good this go-around too but not as dominant, with 20 points in 21 games.

Shea Theodore

Theodore has been sensational, scoring six times and tied for the league lead amongst defensemen with 16 points. He has two overtime winners, is plus-14 and had three points in Vegas’ Game 1 comeback.

“Shea’s a hell of a player,” Golden Knights coach John Tortorella said Sunday. “I think he’s done this before. He’s been a big part of the success of this organization. Quite honestly, when I got here during the regular season part of it, we were asking for more. I thought there were some struggles in certain parts of his game. But he’s taken off since playoffs started. He gets it.”

Carter Hart 

Hart was arguably Marner’s biggest competition heading into the Final, but 12 goals allowed in three games likely changed that. He’s still 14-5 with a .915 save percentage and 2.44 goals-against average, but that’s not overtaking Marner.