While everyone is focused on the futures of Jack and Quinn Hughes, no one is talking about the breakout season that’s loading for New Jersey Devils defenseman Luke Hughes.
Let’s talk about it.
Hughes entered the 2025-26 season as one of the Devils’ cornerstone pieces on the blue line. By the end of the season however, the numbers looked more like a step sideways—or even backward—than the leap many expected.
Hughes finished with 6 goals and 29 assists for 35 points in 68 games, a drop from the 44 and 47 points he put up in the previous two full seasons. Despite averaging a career-high 23:01 of ice time, the overall value metrics told a tough story. Single-season WAR sat at just the 8th percentile among defensemen. That kind of regression for a 22-year-old raises legitimate questions.
Yet, it also creates a clear case for a bounce-back in 2026-27, one that could push him into true No. 1 defenseman territory.
The injury history is the most straightforward explanation for the dip. Hughes dislocated his shoulder against Calgary in late January, landed on long-term injured reserve, and was eventually shut down for the final four games to undergo surgery. He never got a full, healthy run at the kind of minutes and responsibility the Devils handed him. Even so, the underlying data from that incomplete season still flashes the traits that make him a legitimate breakout candidate moving forward.
Let’s start with the rare, physical tools Luke possesses.
Hughes hit a top speed of 23.37 mph, ranking in the 97th percentile, well above the positional average of 21.59 mph. He recorded 117 bursts over 20 mph—again the 97th percentile, against an average of just 31.3. He covered 234.63 miles over the course of the season, good for the 83rd percentile.
Those are not numbers that vanish after one disrupted year. They point to a player who can still separate, recover, and dictate transition play at an elite level.
His hardest shot reached 97.21 mph, placing him near the top of the league in that category as well, with multiple other attempts clearing 90 mph. Shot volume followed the same pattern: 150 shots on goal (91st percentile), including 14 from high-danger areas (95th) and 49 from mid-range (97th). He generated quality looks at a high rate. The finishing simply lagged, with a 4.0 percent shooting percentage that sat below the positional average.
Yet, that gap between process and results is the heart of the case and the underlyings tell the story.
Expected goals per 60 ranked in the 93rd percentile among defensemen. Primary assists sat at the 74th and goals per 60 at the 63rd. Power-play production was elite at the 90th percentile. Yet finishing overall landed at the 11th percentile, and high-danger shooting percentage was 0 percent on those 14 attempts. Even-strength offense as a whole checked in at the 41st percentile, while even-strength defense dropped to the 12th. The defensive number is the clearest red flag. It sits against high-quality teammates and tough competition, and the even-strength zone-time split—roughly 43 percent offensive and 39 percent defensive—shows a player still trusted with heavy minutes. Impact ratings, which measure game-to-game influence, remained strong at the 78th percentile. He was still moving the needle on most nights. The production and the WAR simply did not keep pace.
The counterpoint is real and should not be dismissed. Points fell, the WAR ranking cratered, defensive-zone giveaways rose, and there were enough high-stakes turnovers and lapses to make the low even-strength defensive percentile hard to ignore. In terms of against, Hughes has solid on-ice rates, low shot attempts, and goals against per 60 among Devils defensemen in certain splits. It’s the eye test and the percentile rankings that still reveal inconsistency in his own end. A full season of that profile would be concerning. One injury-shortened year of it is less so.
The bounce-back remains the more likely outcome for several concrete reasons. First, the elite skating and shot generation are not flukes or aging curves in reverse; they are foundational athletic traits that held up even while Hughes was limited. Speed and burst ability of that caliber give a defenseman margin for error and the capacity to erase mistakes that less dynamic players cannot.
Second, the finishing shortfall looks more like variance and disruption than a permanent skill gap. He has scored at higher rates in prior healthy seasons, and the expected-goals numbers show the chances are still there.
Third, he is entering the classic rising portion of a defenseman’s age curve at 23. Many top-pair players convert raw tools into consistent two-way results in exactly this window. Just look at players such as Zack Werenski and Drew Doughty between their age 19 to 24 seasons. The development was hardly linear.
Fourth, the surrounding context is improving. Sunny Mehta has already framed the Devils blue line for a meaningful step forward in 2026-27, citing health—especially for Hughes—as a primary driver, along with continuity and the addition of another mobile puck-mover in Declan Chisholm.
“Even just getting this group back fully healthy, Luke especially,” Mehta said. “Having the whole group healthy will be huge.” He specifically pointed to Hughes’ age and skating: “In that 22-24 year old range is where you see guys kind of hit that rising part of the age curve. I’m excited to see with his skating ability and everything. I’m excited to see him take the next steps.”
For Hughes to reach true No. 1 status, the finishing needs to climb closer to the expected-goals rate he generates, the defensive-zone details need tightening, and he needs a full healthy season at 23-plus minutes. None of that requires reinventing his game. The skating, the shot volume by danger zone, the power-play presence, and the ability to drive play are already present and quantifiable.
The 2025-26 season exposed soft spots and interrupted progress with injury. If those soft spots firm up and the shoulder holds, the same player who once looked like a future cornerstone can still become one. The analytics do not contradict the optimism. They show a talented young defenseman who created more than he finished and defended less consistently than his tools suggest he can—while still ranking among the league’s fastest and most explosive blueliners. That is a profile built for a bounce-back, and potentially for something bigger.
Analytics via Hockey Game Bot & NHL Edge
James is a fully credentialed New Jersey Devils beat reporter for New Jersey Hockey Now on Sportsnaut and the … More about James Nichols