As a restricted free agent next summer, Jesper Wallstedt has been eligible for an extension since July 1. The Minnesota Wild, understandably, have had other matters to attend to. Signing Quinn Hughes to an extension is a much more pressing and immediate matter, and their pursuit of a top center like Dylan Larkin has also seemed to take up the front office’s bandwidth.
There’s no future in Minnesota without clarity on Hughes — whether he’s staying, for how long, and how much it’ll cost. Once that happens, the Wild will be able to focus on other matters, including what approach to take with their star young goalie. Will they seek to extend him for the preseason, or let things play out?
After all, Wallstedt was a complete wild card this time last season. After a disastrous season in the AHL, the Wild were uncertain of how their top goalie prospect would bounce back. You could see this in how eager they were to set a floor in net, signing Filip Gustavsson to a six-year extension with a $6.8 million AAV.
Wallstedt created a goalie controversy before Gustavsson’s contract could even kick in. Or, perhaps, it would have created a controversy if not for the fact that Wallstedt had firm control of the net during the playoffs. The rookie, who had a .915 save percentage in the regular season, started 10 of the Wild’s 11 postseason games, winning their series against the Dallas Stars and turning in seven quality starts.
It was a terrific rookie season, but 33 starts (43 including playoffs) isn’t a huge sample size for a goalie. In many cases, the prudent move would be to make Wallstedt do it again before committing to a big-money, long-term deal for him. Especially since he’ll need to carry the load to start the year, given that Gustavsson is recovering from hip surgery.
There’s just one problem: Wallstedt isn’t getting any cheaper as time goes on.
Hockey’s salary cap explosion hasn’t quite made its way to goaltenders, but there are signs that the market is about to get rewritten in net. Sergei Bobrovsky signed a three-year deal with a $7 million AAV when he turns 38 before the season starts and had an .877 save percentage last year. Dan Vladař got five years, $5.5M AAV based on one solid season after years as a mediocre backup.
If teams are willing to throw money around at not-terribly-appealing options, then what happens next year, when Wallstedt hits the RFA market and can get offer sheeted?
The era of offer sheets being a far-fetched threat appears over. The Philadelphia Flyers targeted the Anaheim Ducks in an attempt to get Leo Carlsson. The New Jersey Devils sought to pry Barrett Hayton from the Utah Mammoth via offer sheet.
Those two contracts aimed to get smaller-market teams to spend more than they’d be comfortable with. The Wild aren’t a budget team, but their cap situation could still make them vulnerable. Kirill Kaprizov‘s $17 million AAV is in effect, and it’ll be compounded by whatever large number Hughes’ next deal comes in at. If a team like New Jersey wants to try blowing out Minnesota’s offer for Wallstedt, they can do major damage, even if the Wild match an offer sheet.
After the Carlsson business, teams were put on notice to handle their RFAs as quickly and risk-free as possible. We just saw the San Jose Sharks take care of Macklin Celebrini, who just became the highest-paid player in the NHL before taking the ice in his third season.
The issue could become that it takes two sides to make a contract work. Wallstedt and his team know that with another brilliant season, he could be in line for a massive payday next summer. The Wild’s job over these next few months should be to find a way to kick that payday down the road.
That will likely mean going above and beyond his contract projections, as given by Evolving-Hockey. Their model predicts an extension for Wallstedt to come in at three years at a $4.8 million AAV. Wallstedt will already have $4.4 million banked from his current contract, which may be enough to allow him to bet on himself and hope for a higher number next offseason.
Would something like three years with a $6-to-$7 million AAV be a different story? If so, that’d be a perfect deal from Minnesota’s perspective. With rumors being that Hughes wants to sign for just three years, the Wild would have their goaltending spending capped at under $14 million, or about 12% of the salary cap for that entire extension. That’s a workable number for the upcoming Hughes window.
Better yet, a bridge deal would buy the Wild time to make a decision in net. Gustavsson has a full no-move clause for the next two seasons — that is, the final season of Wallstedt’s current contract and the first year of any extension. Any trade involving Gustavsson would require his permission for that time. However, this relaxes to a 15-team no-trade clause in Year 3 (or Year 2 of any Wallstedt extension), giving Minnesota much more flexibility, so long as Wallstedt is still in the fold.
That doesn’t necessarily mean flipping Gustavsson at the first opportunity, either. A three-year extension for Wallstedt would mean that Minnesota can evaluate both goalies properly before making any franchise-altering trades. If Wallstedt fully lives up to his potential, trading Gustavsson is an option. It’s also possible Gustavsson reclaims the role of Goalie 1A, giving the Wild a strong, young, and moveable goaltender to play with in Wallstedt.
Even a small overpay now can get the Wild cost certainty and set a floor at the most important position in the sport for the Kaprizov/Hughes/Matt Boldy window. The Wild are going to have to find ways to pinch pennies over the next few seasons to make the salary cap math work, but Wallstedt doesn’t seem like a place to do it.
Minnesota would do well to secure him in the preseason, before his play, or worse, another team, makes The Great Wall of St. Paul unaffordable.