It’s getting dangerously close to where the Montreal Canadiens have to win it all just to meet the same season-over-season standards for success they have unofficially established since finishing in last place in 2022. They’ve averaged improvements of over 13 points in the standings since. After earning 106 points and making an admittedly unlikely run to the Eastern Conference Final last postseason, what could they possibly have in store for an encore?
Canadiens Empty Tank in Rounds 1 and 2
Of course, the progress they’ve made in arguably attaining contender status isn’t limited to just the standings. They unexpectedly made the playoffs for the first time in 2025 since starting their rebuild, albeit by the skin of their teeth as the second wild-card team. While they bowed out in five games to the Washington Capitals, they built on that finish in 2026, when they not only made it out of Round 1, but reached Round 3, advancing twice in dramatic fashion.
They similarly bowed out in five games to the eventual-Stanley Cup-champion Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final, getting badly outshot, outchanced, and outplayed from Game 2 onward. That it came down to the wire against both the Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres, with Alex Newhook scoring the two series-winning goals when each seventh game could have easily gone the other way, combined with the manner in which they lost against the Hurricanes? Predictable ammunition for critics who argue the Canadiens are more so pretenders than legitimate contenders; However, Rounds 1 and 2 reaching Game 7 could have just as easily been a contributing factor to their postseason loss to the Hurricanes, when they had swept the opposition during the regular season.
Why can’t they just have been tired?
Montreal Canadiens forward Alex Newhook and Buffalo Sabres goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen – (Eric Bolte-Imagn Images)
Keep in mind, the Hurricanes similarly lost in five games to the 2025 Stanley Cup-champion Florida Panthers in the previous season’s third round. The upstart Chicago Blackhawks, to whom the Canadiens should be compared, similarly lost in five games in the Western Conference Final in 2009, one year before they won their first championship to start forming a modern-day dynasty.
From in the Mix to in the Conference Final
So, instead of grasping at straws to find reasons as to why the Canadiens are sheep in wolves’ clothing, analysts should be opening up to the possibility they’re gradually making their way to the top of the food chain, possibly as soon as next season. Emphasis on “possibly” obviously, because no one can count on the Habs or any team for that matter winning the Cup in any given season.
There are two many variables to account for, to be able to put that kind of pressure on them. So, whereas it was reasonable to expect the Canadiens to be one of 16 playoff teams in 2025 (or stay relatively non-committal and suggest externally the official goal is to be “in the mix” at the end of the season) and for them to move on to Round 2 at least this past spring, it’s not as simple as saying they have to at least reach the Final for 2026-27 to be considered a success. That’s now exactly how it works.
Granted, the Canadiens need to show some semblance of growth. As a team that is projected to be (at least among the) youngest in the NHL, they have the benefit of gaining experience toward the ultimate goal of a championship. So, technically, regardless of the outcome, the season should not be considered a failure. Even so, it would be wholly disappointing to see regression in some form, including with regard to how the season ends.
Atlantic Division Title or Bust
Considering how close the Canadiens came to winning the Atlantic Division, ultimately falling three points short of the Sabres, that must be the goal, but not just for cosmetic purposes… practical ones as well. Finishing third in the division resulted in a first-round match-up against the Lightning, an arguable Stanley Cup contender, with whom they tied in the standings, but lost out on home-ice advantage due to having won fewer games in regulation.
That the Canadiens beat them at all is impressive. That they also beat the Sabres after outlasting the Bolts over seven games, four of which going to overtime, is doubly so. That they then fell to the Hurricanes in the fashion that they did is downright understandable. Winning the division may be seen as a Herculean task on paper, but it’s key to forge a path of least resistance in the postseason, so that when they draw another Hurricanes in Round 3, if they’re lucky enough to get that far, exhaustion shouldn’t enter into the equation. And, not for nothing, but luck itself shouldn’t either. It at least won’t be seen as having been as much in their favour, as they’ll have hypothetically won the division and all.
Now, the argument shifts to whether the Canadiens can actually win the Atlantic. Through sheer inactivity, they did not actively improve this summer. However, organically they probably will have when all is said and done, by virtue of being as young as they are.
The Lightning are in the opposite situation as one of the older teams in the league. Signing a 36-year-old John Carlson could theoretically offset the departure of Darren Raddysh on defense, but, overall, it’s hard to see them having taken anything other than a step back, even if it’s a small one. The Sabres, a team admittedly on relative par in terms of age with the Habs, downgraded on defense by trading Bowen Byram to the Chicago Blackhawks for Louis Crevier (and other assets). It was a good trade in general, but not necessarily when you’re looking to win the Cup. Losing Alex Tuch up front also hurt significantly. If the Habs can hold off the Florida Panthers, who added Brady Tkachuk and will be fresh off the return of a presumably healthy Aleksander Barkov, they’ll be in good shape.
My annual offseason look at which NHL teams improved the most this summer.https://t.co/tsLFu2ijMM pic.twitter.com/UOhR53Pb14
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) July 16, 2026
Success shouldn’t have to be linear. However, that’s been the Canadiens’ calling card over the last half-decade. So, it shouldn’t be shocking to see them improve in the standings and on their third-round finish last season. It’s simply unreasonable to expect as much, though. It should be enough for them to establish themselves as contenders, which few analysts did heading into Round 1 last spring. However, in world in which ending up one of the final four surviving teams in the league should be considered synonymous with contention, it’s admittedly getting harder and harder not to expect the unexpected with this specific team.
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