Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

As we do each year, PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2026-27 season, though in a slightly different format than before.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin our series with a look at the Central Division, next up are the Blues.

2026-27

Upper Limit: $104MM
Current Cap Charge: $99,630,832
Cap Space: $4,369,168
Potential Bonuses: $1.8MM (all could be reached optimistically)
Dead Cap: $1,333,333 (buyout of Jonathan Drouin)

Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Jonatan Berggren ($2MM), G Joel Hofer ($3.4MM), D Logan Mailloux ($850K), F Jake Neighbours ($3.75MM), F Jimmy Snuggerud ($950K + $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses)

Neighbours is going to be a pricey contract to extend.  Yes, he’s coming off a bit of a down year offensively but he has a pair of seasons of more than 20 goals under his belt, brings a lot of physicality to the table, and is arbitration-eligible.  It’s quite possible that he doubles his current price tag on his next deal, perhaps a bit more than that if he signs long-term.  Berggren was non-tendered this summer to get around arbitration rights but quickly re-signed.  He’ll need to produce at a similar level as he did after joining the Blues to have a shot at another deal while a better showing could push him past the $3MM mark.

Snuggerud will be another expensive pact.  Following an impressive rookie campaign, he could plausibly command a long-term deal approaching the $10MM mark per season based on recent comparables while a two-year bridge might check in closer to $6MM per year.  Alternatively, something in between that walks him to UFA eligibility – the current trend – would land close to the middle.  Either way, a big raise is coming while he could realistically hit his four bonuses this season.

Mailloux signed this deal early last season, locking in a one-way deal, an understandable move for someone who was in the minors for most of his first two pro campaigns.  But he showed some promise down the stretch and projects to play a bigger role this season.  That, coupled with arbitration eligibility, could push him past $2MM per season on the low end with the potential for considerably more if his production picks up.

Hofer wound up getting a little more than half the starts last season as he appears to slowly be moving into the number one category between the pipes.  If that trend continues and he lands closer to the 50-start mark this season with similar results, he’ll be well-positioned for a big jump.  If new GM Alex Steen is ready to commit the starting job to him, then there are two options.  A medium-term agreement could cost somewhere in the $6MM to $6.5MM per season range, especially against arbitration eligibility.  If the two sides want to work out something longer-term, however, the price point could move closer to $8MM per season, reflective of the big jumps coming to the Upper Limit.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): G Jordan Binnington ($6MM), D Brandon Carlo ($3.485MM, UFA)*, F Dillon Dube ($850K), D Torey Krug ($6.5MM, UFA), F Pius Suter ($4.125MM), D Tyler Tucker ($925K)

*-Boston is retaining an additional $615K on Carlo’s contract

Suter wasn’t able to repeat his breakout year from 2024-25, with his production dropping to his usual mid-to-high 20-point range.  That said, we’ve already seen extensions for players with similar numbers coming in ahead of that so it seems plausible that he could land at least a small increase on his next deal as long as his 2026-27 output lands within the usual range.  Dube played well enough to earn a one-way contract this season but projects to have a depth role at most which should keep him at or close to the minimum next summer.

Krug hasn’t played since 2023-24 due to ongoing ankle issues and isn’t expected to play this season.  He’ll be LTIR-eligible if the Blues need to go over the cap ceiling.  Otherwise, his deal will expire without fanfare next summer.  Carlo is getting a fresh start after a tough stint in Toronto.  Despite his recent struggles, he’s still a capable stay-at-home defender who has a right-hand shot, the side in high demand.  A big raise isn’t likely but a small one with a multi-year commitment should be doable with the potential for more if he bounces back nicely this season.  Tucker was a full-timer on the NHL roster for the first time last season and did reasonably well in a number six role.  That’s probably his ceiling but his physicality will appeal to teams looking for more jam on the third pairing.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see him land closer to the $3MM mark on his next contract.

Binnington is one of the more intriguing pending UFA goaltenders.  He’s coming off a rough season but his NHL track record before then ranges from average to a little above average, albeit with some inconsistency.  His camp will also try to take advantage of his strong play internationally.  If there’s a team that views him as a starter, he could get a bit more than this on his next deal.  More likely is that he takes a short-term pact at a slightly lower price tag, either to stay in St. Louis or with the hopes a move elsewhere helps restore some value.

2027-28

Projected Upper Limit: $113.5MM
Current Cap Charge: $66,795,832 (13 players signed)
Cap Space: $46,704,168
Potential Bonuses: $1MM (all could be reached optimistically)
Dead Cap: $1,333,333 (Drouin buyout)

While more than $46MM looks promising, new deals for Neighbours, Snuggerud, and Hofer could cut that in half, let alone their other RFA signings.  That said, with the cap increase and Krug coming off the books, there is ample room for Steen to add a piece or two to his roster, especially if some of the other pending UFAs also move on.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Dalibor Dvorsky ($909,166 + $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses), D Theo Lindstein ($940,833)

Dvorsky was eased into things in his rookie year last season but the expectation is that he can be a top-six center in St. Louis at some point.  If he gets a chance to play that role by the end of this deal, his price tag could jump past the $8MM mark conservatively if things went well while he’d likely hit his bonuses.  However, if he’s still more of a third-line player, bridging him around $4.5MM per season may make more sense.

Lindstein didn’t see much NHL action last season but should push for a full-time spot this year.  Presuming that he’s in more of a depth role, it makes more sense to bridge him as well with the price tag for that potentially coming in around the $3MM mark based on some of this summer’s comparables.

Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Alexey Toropchenko ($2.5MM), F Nathan Walker ($887.5K)

Toropchenko isn’t a big point producer but his physicality is a standout skill.  That’s one element that teams have shown a willingness to pay up for, even for a fourth liner so there’s reason to believe that he could add a million or so per season onto his current price tag on a multi-year deal.  Walker has stuck around as a back-of-the-roster player for several years now.  Given that teams are coveting grit, he could have a better market if he opted to test it with a price tag in the $1.5MM range seeming reasonable.  Alternatively, he seems quite comfortable staying in St. Louis playing for around the minimum so that could continue as well.

2028-29

Forecasted Upper Limit: $123MM
Current Cap Charge: $60.225MM (9 players signed)
Cap Space: $62.775MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None

Depending on how Dvorsky develops over the next couple of years, a new deal for him could basically cover most of the jump in the Upper Limit if he winds up securing a long-term pact.  Lindstein’s next deal should cover the rest of that.  As things stand, there may not be much flexibility for the 2028 offseason.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Cam Fowler ($6.1MM), F Ross Johnston ($2MM)

Johnston signed this contract in free agency last month, demonstrating that there is increasing demand for a traditional enforcer.  He’ll be 35 when this deal expires so unless he’s still playing a regular role on the fourth line, it wouldn’t be surprising if his next AAV ticks down slightly.

Fowler has been a stabilizer on the back end in St. Louis since being acquired while his price tag looks better in today’s cap environment than it did back when it was signed.  Assuming he can still be a top-four defender when this contract expires, a small raise on a short-term deal could be doable.  Alternatively, if he goes year-to-year (he’ll be entering his age-37 season on his next deal), he’ll be eligible for bonuses to give the signing team more flexibility.

2029-30

Forecasted Upper Limit: $133.5MM (8.5% increase)
Current Cap Charge: $52.125MM (7 players signed)
Cap Space: $81.375MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None

If they want to re-sign Fowler, they’ll have ample room to do so.  Otherwise, between his expiring deal and the forecasted cap increase, the Blues will have a lot of cap space at their disposal in the 2029 summer.

Expiring Contracts (RFA): None

Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Colton Parayko ($6.5MM)

Parayko isn’t the number one defender the Blues thought he could be when they gave him this deal but at this price point, he doesn’t necessarily have to be either.  As long as he can handle a top-four role, they’ll get a decent return in the back half of the contract.  He’ll be 37 when this contract expires and given his injury history, it’s hard to see a long-term commitment coming his way.  Maybe two years with a small raise but anything more than that would be particularly risky.

Signed For 2030-31 And Beyond

For that season, there will be a new CBA in place so trying to forecast the cap and cap space basically becomes a guessing game.  Accordingly, we’ll go back to the old Deep Dive format for players signed beyond the 2030-31 campaign.

D Philip Broberg ($8MM through 2031-32)
F Pavel Buchnevich ($8MM through 2030-31)
F Dylan Holloway ($7.75MM through 2030-31)
F Connor McMichael ($6.75MM through 2031-32)
F Mason McTavish ($7MM through 2030-31)
F Robert Thomas ($8.125MM through 2030-31)

Thomas has averaged at least a point per game in four of the last five seasons.  On top of that, he’s a sound two-way center.  Given where the market is going, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that his camp could command close to double this on his next deal (though he’ll be 32 at that time, exiting his prime).  This is a very strong bargain contract and will be for quite a while.

The same can’t be said for Buchnevich.  His output has ticked down in four straight years now and while he’s still a 20-goal player, he’s not the top liner he was a few years ago either.  They’re paying him to be the latter.  Still, as the cap goes up, this price tag for a 20-goal, 50-point player (if he maintains that level) won’t look so bad.  Holloway signed early this offseason and may have left money on the table doing so with what has since happened.  He has emerged as a quality core forward who is now locked up through his prime.  If his progression continues, he could be eyeing a substantial raise in 2031 as well.

McTavish was one of their big trade adds this summer, giving them an impactful center, something they’ve coveted for a while now.  If he can get back even to 50 points and hold that moving forward, they’ll do well with this contract and McTavish will position himself for a multi-million dollar raise as well.  The same can largely be said for McMichael, the key piece coming the other way in the Jordan Kyrou trade.  (Either he or McTavish will move to the wing, however.)  Another one who signed early this offseason, he might have left some money on the table as well in doing so.

Broberg has emerged as the defenseman Edmonton hoped he’d be when they drafted him eighth overall in 2019; the offer sheet from St. Louis was widely successful for the Blues.  He’s a legitimate top-pairing piece now, capable of producing at least some secondary offense along the way.  This price tag for his prime years already looks below market value and the deal is just beginning this season.  If he stays on this trajectory, it’s not impossible that he could double this on his next contract as well if market values continue to balloon.

Outlook

The Blues have the bulk of their core locked up on below-market deals while Neighbours and Snuggerud could join that group before long.  That’s a strong foundation from a cap perspective, one that will only get better over the next few years.

Photo courtesy of Sergei Belski-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.