It’s June, and that means the NHL Entry Draft is this month. With the first-overall pick, the New York Islanders have two options with a third wild card. Sure, James Hagens is an intriguing option but the top two choices are forward Michael Misa and defenseman Matthew Schaefer.
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The two prospects have star potential and can make the Islanders a competitive team for years to come. They are the two building blocks in this draft. It’s important to keep in mind the ceiling, floor, and middle ground of each player when considering who to take. Some players in the NHL come to mind when thinking of how Misa or Schaefer will turn out.
Michael Misa
Among all the forwards in this class, Misa is the one with the highest upside. Will he become the next Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, or Auston Matthews? Probably not. However, his upside is still the reason the Islanders should take him.
Ceiling: Tim Stutzle
Misa has the skills to become a dynamic center who makes the skaters on the ice better while also finding the back of the net with a quick release. That’s what Tim Stutzle is for the Ottawa Senators. At a point-per-game pace, he’s a consistent threat in the offense, and with 50 assists in each of the past three seasons, he’s the playmaker they turn to in the offense. Stutzle’s rise to stardom is one of the reasons the Senators are a hot team in the NHL right now after making the playoffs this season and looking like a Cup contender next season.
The Islanders would love for Misa to become that type of top-line center. Stutzle doesn’t get enough credit on a Senators team that has Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, and Linus Ullmark but he’s often the driving force for their success, especially on offense. Misa playing that role on the Islanders would allow them to build their offense around him. There are a handful of scorers in the pipeline, and they can continue adding shooters knowing they have a playmaker in place.
Floor: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Every once in a while, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins flashes the upside the Oilers hoped they’d get when they drafted him first overall in 2011. The playoff run and Stanley Cup Final are displaying it as he’s become a reliable passer in the top six, with 13 assists in 17 games.
Otherwise, Nugent-Hopkins is a good second-line center who at times can play on the top line but for the most part plays in the middle six. He’s a good player in the offensive end of the ice but not as a scorer, and he doesn’t stand out defensively either. The Oilers drafted him with the top pick, expecting star potential, and he’s a good player who is far from the cog in the machine.
This seems harsh for Misa, who is expected to be a difference-maker, and with the Nugent-Hopkins projection only becomes a good offensive player who can’t defend. It’s worth noting that this is the floor. It’s a good floor to have, considering Nugent-Hopkins isn’t a bust. The Islanders, at the very least, are still adding a middle-six center to their lineup.
Middle Ground: Taylor Hall
Taylor Hall won the Hart Trophy following the 2017-18 season after scoring 39 goals and adding 54 assists with the New Jersey Devils and guiding the team to the playoffs. Otherwise, Hall hasn’t lived up to the hype as the 2010 first-overall pick. He was expected to carry offences and lead a top line.
He is best at the second or third-best skater on a team, which explains why he’s been on seven teams in his 15-year NHL career. Hall is a regular 20-goal, 60 point guy and is a great player to add to a core but isn’t a core piece. Recently, he’s seen success in the middle six on great teams, and even in his prime, he played his best when there was a great supporting cast.
Hall is not a draft bust. On the contrary, he had a great career and is still a good forward to have in the offense. However, he’s not the game-changer top picks are meant to be. On top of that, Hall isn’t great in the defensive end, which forces teams to play him alongside a defensive center to make up for it.
Misa failing to round out his game means he could turn into Hall. He won’t take the offense to the next level as much as he’ll be a good top-six player. The Islanders are hoping to find a core part of the top six to build around. He can play on the top six but the middle ground is a good offensive player with not much else.
Matthew Schaefer
Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes make great cases for taking a defenseman with the top pick. The Islanders won’t expect Schaefer to become a Hughes or Makar but the upside is close enough, making him a compelling player to select.
Ceiling: Miro Heiskanen
Schaefer has all the skills to become a perennial Norris-Trophy-caliber defenseman. He creates offense at the point and moves the puck up the ice to help take the offense to the next level. In addition, Schaefer is sound in the defensive end. He still has room to improve and is developing but it’s worth noting he’s only 17 years old and the Islanders would look at the long game with him.
Matthew Schaefer, Erie Otters (OHL Images)
Miro Heiskanen never won the Norris Trophy. However, he’s always in the conversation, and he was playing at a Norris Trophy level this season until he was sidelined with an injury. Heiskanen is elite in both ends, and his skating allows him to keep up with skilled forwards. Schaefer is already an elite skater, and the Islanders, at best, can have him on their blue line from day one. Moreover, the Islanders can have a top-pair defenseman who makes the entire team better by being on the ice, something few players in this draft can do.
Floor: Jamie Drysdale
Jamie Drysdale has the upside to be a great two-way defenseman. The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen it yet and are still hoping he hits on his potential. Drysdale’s injury history prevents him from playing at that level and has limited him throughout his career. He’s 23 and still developing but after recording only 20 points in 70 games last season, it looks like he’ll never be that elite player, especially in the offensive end.
If Schaefer is a bust, it’ll be because of the collarbone injury he suffered this past season. It’s something that could limit him throughout his career and a reason some teams with the top pick wouldn’t draft him. The Islanders could take Schaefer, hoping he’s the next great defenseman but an injury re-aggravation would set him back and the Islanders back a few years.
Middle Ground: Owen Power
When Owen Power was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres, the hope was he’d become the next Victor Hedman. He has the skill to open up the offense at the point while being a bigger-bodied defenseman. Power is a good top-four guy who helps out the offense but he’s not someone who will take over games.
Schaefer might not reach the upside of an elite defenseman but he’ll still be a reliable part of the defense. He can play on the second pair and round out the core, which already has skaters to build around. Ideally, Schaefer is the defenseman who leads the Islanders but being a consistent part of the unit is still valuable for a team looking to rebuild.
With This in Mind, Who Should the Islanders Take?
There are great cases for both skaters. Misa looks like the safer pick as he has a high floor and will still be a key part of the middle six. Schaefer’s injury is a reason to avoid him altogether. At the same time, Schaefer has the highest upside in the draft and is the player who could be a star and lead the Islanders to a Cup.
If the Islanders want to take the safe route, they’ll take Misa or even look at another forward like Hagens, who doesn’t have the high upside but projects as a top-six forward. However, if the Islanders are looking to come away from the draft as a winner and find a star, they’ll take Schaefer. The injury is a concern, and if it is a recurring issue, it will limit him. At the same time, the Islanders are thinking long-term with the pick — and the assumption is that the 17-year-old won’t be injured throughout his career —by 24 or 25, he’ll look more like an elite defenseman who can take over games.
Who do you think the Islanders should take first overall? Who are the players Misa and Schaefer should be compared to? Let us know in the comments section below!
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