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Adam Fantilli (L), Connor Bedard (M), Leo Carlsson (R) at the 2023 NHL Draft. (Photo: Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)
It’s always hard to give a read on a draft class that isn’t at least five years in the books. With player progression, new scenery, and even NHL debuts still on the table for this class, rating them fairly isn’t going to be easy. But three seasons have passed since the 2023 Draft took place, and there would certainly be GM’s making different choices now that time has passed.
So which player will rise and which will fall as I do my best to rank these players both on their path so far and how good I think they will become. Note that I am not considering team needs here. I understand certain players were picked in certain places due to positional value, but that’s not what I am looking at here, simply who is the best player in each spot.
That being said, let’s get into it.
First Round Re-Draft
Connor Bedard for Chicago on Draft night | NHL.com
Chicago Blackhawks, Connor Bedard: Don’t overthink it here. If there was any doubt about the number one overall pick going into this season, Bedard certainly shut it down. Despite being injured for a long stint, Bedard’s monster season had him on an 89-point pace without much real support. It seems to be lost on people that Bedard was almost single-handedly willing Chicago into a playoff spot in December. Point totals and team success should only improve for Bedard, who is finally seeing some reinforcements added, as long as he can stay healthy, that is.
Anaheim Ducks, Leo Carlsson: The most contrarian people out there may have a small argument for Carlsson going number one. His game is certainly more well-rounded than Bedard, and offensively he kept pace for the first leg of the season. I could certainly see Leo Carlsson becoming a lot like Leon Draisaitl in both play and essence. Both of them will be big, elite forwards who are overshadowed by generational talents being tied to their names.
Columbus Blue Jackets, Adam Fantilli: It’s hard to say this is a comfortable number three. While I do really like the player, Fantilli is yet to take that superstar step. While he was promising analytically and in terms of play, it’s yet to be seen if Fantilli is a great 75-point first line center or if he has that next gear. Time will tell, and while Fantilli’s development is happening at a very steady pace, he may be lapped by how quickly some players in this class are becoming superstars.
San Jose Sharks, Matvei Michkov: The debate between Will Smith and Matvei Michkov here is certainly one I’ll hear out. I just think in this current moment Michkov has shown flashes of being a true offensive superstar while Smith looks like a great forward. Even in a down year where his ice time was slashed, Michkov still raked in 51 points. When Rick Tocchet finally solves how to use Michkov properly, Philly could be looking at one of the best offensive players in hockey.
Montreal Canadiens, Will Smith: I genuinely really like Will Smith as a player. He’s a steady two-way center already who chips in big time on offense. Every team needs a Will Smith, and while a really good second-line center isn’t the most exciting outcome for a top-5 pick, Smith looks poised to be a key contributor to a dynasty-level core in San Jose. It feels like every team in the league wants a 70-point, two-way center to play on the second line, and San Jose may have that as soon as next season.
Utah Mammoth, Ryan Leonard: What’s there not to love about Ryan Leonard? The guy hits, he scores, he can play up and down the lineup, and he plays some pretty meaningful defensive minutes while he’s at it. The Capitals forward core is very crowded next season, so Leonard may be forced to bounce around, but the young power-forward shows serious signs that he can be a truly elite top-line guy in the near future.
Philadelphia Flyers, Zach Benson: Maybe I’m a little high on Benson. I frankly never see him being more than a good top-six guy, and there are players I’m going to mention who could be a lot more than that. But there’s something about the compete level that Benson brings that you just gotta love. A great season, including the playoffs, makes me almost certain winning will follow wherever Benson goes. The guy is a pest, but a damn good one.
Washington Capitals, Gabriel Perreault: I’ll admit that I wasn’t super high on Perreault out of his draft, but I look like I’m going to be proven wrong. After a great stint in the AHL with 17 points in 20 games, Perreault came up to the NHL level and was above a half-point per game. I don’t think he’s ever going to be in the “superstar” tier. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s flirting with the 80-point mark during his best years.
Detroit Red Wings, Axel Sandin-Pellikka: Of the two Swedish defensemen, I prefer Sandin-Pellikka. Sure, the ultimate upside certainly doesn’t seem as high as it did a year ago, but that doesn’t mean Sandin-Pellikka won’t be a great offensive producer. Lane Hutson, Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar have really skewed what it means to be a great offensive defenceman. 50 points is still a great total, and that seems to be more in Sandin-Pellikka’s wheelhouse with a competent defensive game to pair with it.
St. Louis Blues, Tom Willander: It’s close for me. Obviously there is some Detroit bias with Sandin-Pellikka, but while I prefer Willander’s frame, the underlying numbers are awful. Dom’s model has him in the 1st percentile in the NHL for net rating. Part of that is certainly due to the team. I have faith that Willander will become a solid top-four defenceman with some offensive upside to him; how much more than that is still very up in the air.
Vancouver Canucks, Roman Kantserov: Are there size questions? Of course. There aren’t many 5’9″ forwards making it to the NHL, but when you’re above a point per game in the KHL at just 21, I’ll have some faith. Kantserov will almost certainly become the next elite Russian talent that fell in his draft due to the Russian factor.
Utah Mammoth, Calum Ritchie: Ritchie has a really complete skill set that I think a lot of fans are going to love. He’s a sniper and a great playmaker, and he didn’t need much time on ice this season to produce some pretty solid offense. The next step will be seeing if Ritchie can put his frame to good use.
Buffalo Sabres, Jacob Fowler: After a great stint in both the AHL and NHL, Fowler looks ready to compete for the crease next season. While undersized for a goalie, Fowler is still fantastic as both an athlete and in his fundamentals. There’s an argument to place him higher, but goalies are nearly impossible to predict, so I have him taking a knock here for that reason.
Pittsburgh Penguins, Dmitri Simashev: Multiple great seasons in the KHL and a fantastic AHL stint overshadow what was an otherwise lackluster NHL stint for Simashev. Simashev has the size and skating that so often lead to solid NHL talent. There’s no reason to believe the hockey sense won’t develop and lead to a really solid second-pair guy.
Nashville Predators, Andrew Cristall: You know what? To hell with skating. There are some serious questions about whether Cristall can keep up with the NHL pace, and that’s a valid criticism. But looking at this list, I don’t see any guys other than Cristall who have a reasonable chance at being a top six or top three defenceman on their team. There’s a reality where the skill outweighs the potential flaws with Cristall the same way it has for Michkov.
Calgary Flames, David Reinbacher: Even at the time, it was a bit of a reach, but big, right-shot defensemen are a luxury in this league. There are health concerns and certainly concerns about Reinbacher’s ultimate ceiling, but I don’t think the second pair is out of reach at all.
Detroit Red Wings, Dalibor Dvorsky: I know I’m a little lower on Dvorsky than most, but I think I expected more from him. Dvorsky got ample power play time during his rookie season as well as stretches in the Blues top six. There is certainly still a good player here, but I’m leaning more toward the middle-six than top-six.
Winnipeg Jets, Trey Augustine: The Michigan State goaltender has done nothing but impress to this point in his career. Fantastic collegiate numbers as well as great showings at the World Juniors and World Championships for the United States lead me to believe Augustine should continue to grow into a great starting goaltender in the near future. Yet again though, goalies are weird.
Chicago Blackhawks, Oliver Moore: There’s a lot of refinement to do with Oliver Moore, but he will still be a great player. The skating is impressive, and he’s a guy who can play alongside anyone because of it. It’s going to take a lot of work to develop his goal-scoring into an acceptable level, though.
Seattle Kraken, Nick Lardis: Similar to Moore, Lardis is another great skater with a bit more natural offense. He does need to bulk up pretty seriously and work on his defensive effort, but there is certainly a middle six role for him in the future.
Minnesota Wild, Daniil But: But’s season had both a good NHL and AHL stint so putting him this low feels wrong. The frame is a general manager’s dream at 6’5″, and the offensive game coming along is nothing but good news. Ultimately, I don’t think But is going to be a top-six guy, but I think he can be a really productive bottom-six guy whose sheer size makes him pretty solid at everything else.
Philadelphia Flyers, Bradly Nadeau: The winger has all the tools of a valuable middle six guy. Good speed, good offensive instinct, and really solid attention to detail. The offense really came for Nadeau this season, finishing above a point-per-game pace in the AHL and a really solid 17 points in 20 playoff games.
New York Rangers, Emmitt Finnie: Finnie is one of the most well-rounded players in this draft class. Even this early in his career, he’s a solid penalty killer; he’s as fast as anyone, and he’s willing to use his body. A 30-point rookie campaign is very promising, but the ultimate upside is still very much a question.
Nashville Predators, Easton Cowan: Certainly more of an offensively minded player, Cowan had a rough start to his season. Head coach Craig Berube may have been in part responsible for his hot-and-cold season. Now with the Leafs roster having some new life, Cowan may be better insulated to produce.
St. Louis Blues, Matthew Wood: While scoring nearly 20-goals should be enough to get you near the top 15 of this redraft, Wood lacks much beyond his offensive tools. He’s not great defensively and doesn’t have the skating to compensate for his mistakes. Wood will be a good player nonetheless.
San Jose Sharks, Nate Danielson: Smooth skating and defensively sound, Danielson looks like he can be a solid bottom-six player. Though he lacks any threatening offensive tools and hasn’t had a great bill of health to this point.
Colorado Avalanche, Hunter Brzustewicz: A right-shot defenceman who is on the slightly smaller side is typically associated with offense. That’s not exactly where I see Brzustewicz’s game in the future. I think he can be a really solid bottom-four defenceman on the right side who can give you a solid 20 points.
Toronto Maple Leafs, Luca Cagnoni: Despite taking a step back in terms of production this season, I still think Luca Cagnoni can be a solid offensive defenceman. The skating is going to need some refinement if he’s going to make it work with a 5’9″ frame, though.
St. Louis Blues, Michael Hrabal: The massive frame will certainly win some people over more than it did for me. Hrabal’s incredible collegiate season makes it pretty likely he becomes a pretty solid NHL starter.
Carolina Hurricanes, Charlie Stramel: A stocky center with solid offensive talent is exactly what teams want in their middle six. Stramel’s breakout season came out of the blue, almost suspiciously. Next season, he will likely see NHL time where better judgment can be made.
Colorado Avalanche, Otto Stenberg: There are questions about size, skill, and ceiling with Otto Stenberg, but his first stint in the NHL looked solid with 10 points in 32 games. There’s a chance he becomes a solid depth piece.
Vegas Golden Knights, Samuel Honzek: Far from a polished prospect. Going to need to improve across the board and in his health, but the frame is promising with some pretty solid physical bite.
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