I’ve had plenty of quibbles and made numerous critiques of The Athletic this summer in terms of that publication’s assessments of Edmonton Oilers players and prospects.
In the name of fair play then I’ll suggest The Athletic’s prospect writer Scott Wheeler just now nailed it when it came to ranking Oilers prospects Isaac Howard and Matt Savoie in Wheeler’s new list of the top 145 U-23 players in hockey.
Wheeler projects Savoie and Howard to be what he calls Tier 5 “support” NHL players. Here’s his definition of such players: “A top 150 player. Someone who would offer strong support to a contending or championship core, but wouldn’t be an integral piece within it. A below-average top-line forward, a strong No. 2 defenseman, or an above average starter.”
Savoie was given a ranking of “5a,” meaning he’s more likely to achieve that goal, while Howard was ranked “5c.”
On Savoie, Wheeler said, “Savoie has the speed, skill and work ethic to be an effective top-nine contributor… Some point to size and average IQ as potentially holding him back from taking that next step beyond a legit Support player, though.”
And on Howard: “Some wonder about his skating for his size. Others see a top-six-or-bust profile and wonder. This year will be critical for him. He needs to hold a top-six job — and there’s one there for the taking.”
That’s as fair a ranking and assessment of Savoie and Howard as you’ll find.
The Pronman controversy
In a previous list, another prospect writer for The Athletic, Corey Pronman, did not include either Howard or Savoie on his personal ranking of the Top 156 U23 hockey players in the world. Pronman did however rank highly a few former Edmonton Oilers first rounders, with Sam O’Reilly at 40th overall and Reid Schaefer, 83rd overall.
Pronman came under heavy fire for his list in mid-August, which also had the outstanding young Buffalo forward Zach Benson ranked 124th.
I note that Wheeler did not have Schaefer on his list of 145 top players, and that O’Reilly wasn’t ranked 40th overall. Instead, he was ranked slightly below Savoie but slightly ahead of Howard as a “5B” prospect.
As for Benson of Buffalo, Wheeler projected him as a “3B all-star” player, with the definition of Tier 3 all-star players being: “A top 60 player. Someone who wouldn’t be the best player on a contender, but would be an important part of any contending or championship core. A strong top-line forward, above average No. 1 defenseman, or borderline top five goalie.”
That sounds like a good guess about Benson’s future.
Why the difference between the two lists?
First, both Pronman and Wheeler are looking at these players today but projecting how they will do in the future. It’s an ambitious, speculative, and difficult assignment. And it’s too early to say which of the two has done a better job here. I may well think that on most of the assignments Wheeler’s list is superior, but that doesn’t mean in a redraft of these two lists five or ten years from now that the Wheeler’s list will prove to be superior.
Second, (and this is where things get most interesting to me) while Pronman’s list is his own personal ranking, Wheeler does not attempt to do that in this list, the third of this type he’s written.
His list isn’t meant to reflect his view of the players. It’s meant to reflect the consensus view of NHL hockey scouts and managers.
As Wheeler puts it: “The execution of Prospect Tiers, though, differs from how I put together my personal lists in that it isn’t really meant to be mine at all. It starts with me slotting 125-150 of the league’s under-23 talents into the different tiers that make up Player Tiers (MVP, franchise, all-star, star and support), but it’s finished by handing that shell over to NHL contacts. That panel, which was made up of 15 scouts and executives this year, is then given free rein to suggest adjustments in an effort to produce a more consensus view of the pool of players. After two years of doing this, I’ve got a better sense of the way the league already views the players.”
The advantage of this approach for Wheeler is that I suspect he’s learning a lot from how professional hockey talent evaluators think. His own hockey knowledge is increasing.
It’s also the case that in knowing he will get professional feedback on his choices, Wheeler is more inclined to take a reasonable point of view, to not go out on any limb.
Again, this does not mean that Wheeler’s list will prove to be better than Pronman’s list at predicting the future of all these players. If an individual scout has a great eye and a knack for projecting into the future, maybe he can outperform the consensus of the hockey herd. Some scouts do just that and consistently find better players than other scouts.
In the end, however, based on what I’ve seen of Savoie and Howard, and what I know after 55 years as a hockey fanatic, I’ll say that when it comes to Savoie and Howard, Wheeler’s list looks more credible than Pronman’s list, and the same goes with Wheeler’s evaluations of Benson, Schaefer and O’Reilly.
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Cult of Hockey prospect series 2026
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#3 Josh Samanski: Big centre jumps up from junior hockey flop to rarefied air as Oilers hopeful
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