Welcome to Evan’s mailbag, where each week Avalanche reporter Evan Rawal answers all your Avalanche- and hockey-related questions. Mailbag questions can be sent to [email protected].
Do you think they’ll be able to afford Artturi Lehkonen?
A lot of Lehkonen questions, which makes sense. With the Cale Makar extension done, Lehkonen is the next big name that you’d think would be in line for a deal.
This was always a significantly more complicated deal to get done, and it’s not getting any less complicated as the days go by. On Tuesday, the Boston Bruins gave Fraser Minten, a 22-year-old with 40 points in 105 NHL games, a seven-year extension that carries a cap hit of $7.2 million. He’s a young player who the Bruins are betting will develop even more, so it’s not a direct comparable with Lehkonen, but it’s another sign that the price to retain talent is only going up.
Everyone in the Avalanche organization loves Lehkonen and quite frankly, they don’t have anyone that can immediately replace half the things he does in the lineup. This coming season is the final one of what has been one of the best-value contracts in the NHL. One would have to think that Lehkonen, who will be 32 when his next contract begins, is looking at his last “big” payday in the NHL. Given his production since arriving in Colorado, he’s earned it.
If Lehkonen was 28, this would be pretty cut and dry. He’s not, though. His age, playing style and injury history are what complicate matters. How well is a player that plays as hard as he does going to hold up as the contract ages?
It’s not a matter of ‘can the Avalanche afford Lehkonen?’ They can, even after the Makar extension. It really comes down to what number is the max Colorado is willing to go to. We saw this with Mikko Rantanen. You can love a player as much as the Avalanche loved Mikko, but outside of unicorns like Makar and Nathan MacKinnon, there’s a limit to what you can pay everyone and still be able to build a competitive team. The Avalanche can sign Lehkonen and still build a team, but the higher that number goes, the more they’re limited in the long run, so internally, you’d have to imagine there’s a max.
My prediction at the start of the summer was around $7 million. At this point, with the changing market and players making more, that feels like best-case scenario. Sacrifices will have to be made at that number, whether it be pending UFAs in Nic Roy and Scott Wedgewood or moving someone else off the roster, but you can still build a good team. That gets tougher if the number is higher. That’s the predicament Sakic and company are in.
Why did the Avs wait so long on Makar? They get out in front of it before the (Carlsson) deal and it’s possible we aren’t talking 18% of the cap.
The thing about any negotiation is that it takes two to tango. Joe Sakic could have wanted to get it done immediately, but if the other party isn’t ready, what can you do? It sounds like Makar’s camp wanted to wait things out a bit because they knew the market was going to continue changing. They were correct, so wise move by them.
Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, and in recent years, stars haven’t signed big extensions in July. MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, the list goes on. All those guys waited until the end of August or even later to sign their extensions. Leo Carlsson signed that offer sheet on July 3, so the window to get it done before was pretty small.
Why is Gavin Brindley just out? I don’t get the logic on his development plan.
I don’t think he’s just out. A year ago, nobody had Brindley making the Avalanche roster. Before you know it, he spent more than half the season in the NHL. That could happen again, as injuries always pop up.
There was a clear dip in Brindley’s game from the middle of December on, and they gave him plenty of time to work through it. One goal in 37 games will typically get a young player sent to the AHL, especially if they’re not going to be getting much ice time down the stretch at the NHL level. But it’s a new year and you’d have to expect that Brindley learned a lot from his NHL time that he could take into his summer training.
Keep in mind the Avalanche gave Brindley a three-year extension last season that comes with a very low cap hit. They’d love nothing more than for him to take someone’s job because it would help their cap situation in the long run. I anticipate he’ll play a good chunk of NHL games this season (again). I think it’s fair to wonder how someone that plays the game as aggressively as he does at his size will hold up in the long term at the highest level, but there’s no denying the talent. He still factors into the plans for the Avalanche.
I don’t feel we really got an end-of-year breakdown with (MacFarland) leaving so soon after the WCF exit. What is known about the state of the boys at the end of their playoff run?
The Avalanche don’t hold a locker room clear-out day, so no, we didn’t really get an end of the year breakdown. I’m guessing most of them won’t want to revisit that when media day is held next week. Even Sakic hasn’t seemed terribly interested in revisiting it. The downside of no locker room clear-out is that you don’t get to hear from the players after they’ve had a few days to sit with how the season ended and gather their thoughts.
If MacKinnon, Nelson and Kadri are 1C, 2C and 3C, what are the pros and cons of playing Roy at 4C vs. Svechkov at 4C?
It kind of depends on how the Avalanche structure their lines, but one thing the Avalanche will have to weigh is whether or not they see Roy as a center in their system. We didn’t see a lot of that after he was acquired. Roy is not exactly fleet of foot, so they may prefer to hide that lack of speed on the wing. Svechkov does not lack speed, so he may just fit the system better in that spot. That skating ability is one reason the Avalanche targeted him.
In the scenario posed in the question, the Avalanche would have a greater need at wing, which would lead me to believe Roy starts there. Before arriving at the dumpster fire that was the Toronto Maple Leafs last season, Roy was good for around 15 goals and 35 points in Vegas. That’s production on the wing the Avalanche could use with Valeri Nichushkin no longer around. He’s also playing for a payday, which could bring extra motivation.
It’s tougher to predict what happens with Svechkov, but that’s why he’s the player I’m most interested in seeing at training camp. What can a move to this system bring out of him? How quickly can he earn Bednar’s trust? He might start in a fourth-line role, but on paper, he’s not your prototypical fourth-line center, which is why I’m fascinated to see how he grows with this group.