A first-round pick doesn’t have to make or break a fantasy team, but it can give a manager an elite foundation to work around, which can put some pressure on the pick.

So who are the best players in Round 1? For keeper leagues, it obviously depends on who is actually available. But, no matter if it’s a keeper or redraft league, league type and scoring impact projected values. Let’s look at a few top first-rounders in different scoring systems, using this year’s cheat sheet.

Points leagues

Scoring system: goals (3), assists (3), shots (0.5), blocks (0.5), power-play points (1), shorthanded points (1) | goalie wins (3), shutouts (1), saves (0.5), goals against (-3)

1) Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche

MacKinnon is a force. He’ll deliver scoring, shoot the puck a bunch and drive offense. He has a very slight edge in terms of fantasy value under these parameters compared to Connor McDavid. Colorado’s schedule plays into it. The Avs play on light nights more than any other team this season.

2) Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers

But is McDavid the wrong choice at No.1? Absolutely not. He is projected to be the higher scorer between he and MacKinnon, especially on the power play, considering Edmonton’s usual dominance and Colorado’s struggles there. So if your league weighs power-play stats heavily, there is your answer. Even if you’re in a league with the scoring parameters outlined above, McDavid is unquestionably an elite pick. There truly is no wrong answer between McDavid and MacKinnon.

3/4) Zach Werenski, D, Columbus Blue Jackets; Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche

Werenski and Makar are as neck-and-neck as it gets in terms of fantasy value, separated by only 0.08 Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). So it comes down to overall preference. Maybe your specific league settings add more distance between the two. Or maybe, team strength alone is enough of a qualifier because the Avalanche obviously have more offensive strengths and a longer track record of contending compared to the Blue Jackets.

5) Quinn Hughes, D, Minnesota Wild

Hughes is projected to score more than the previous two cornerstone defensemen and do more damage on the power play. It’s the peripherals that set him back a bit from Werenski and Makar. He generally accumulates fewer shots, blocks and hits.

6) Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers

Bouchard’s shot volume and power-play production will do a lot of the heavy lifting here. If your league, for some reason in the year 2026, counts plus-minus, maybe it changes your view on Bouchard. But this is another offensive ace from the blue line.

7) Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning

Kucherov is a scoring machine who any fantasy manager would be lucky to have. His regular seasons have been absolutely lights out recently, and he shows no signs of him slowing down.

8) Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks

After Kucherov, there’s a bit of a step down in terms of fantasy value to Celebrini. But managers in dynasty or keeper leagues are in luck if he is available. The sky is the limit for Celebrini, who was one of the most dynamic players in the NHL despite his surroundings last year. Now imagine what could happen if some other up-and-coming Sharks take a step forward in development this year. San Jose’s light-night action is another consideration here.

9) Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres

Celebrini and Dahlin rank this high if you have boosts on — we gave Dahlin, specficially, two boosts. The Sabres may not have made splashy adds this offseason, but it’s worth betting on this team’s internal growth, especially after last year’s turnaround. Dahlin was at the heart of it all, and his well-rounded approach should contribute more to it. One major concern in Buffalo, however, is the power play. But there were signs of the team figuring it out in the playoffs, which is promising for this season.

10) Matthew Schaefer, D, New York Islanders

Schaefer’s rookie year was so phenomenal and incredibly unique. At 19 years old, he’s obviously ideal for managers in keeper and dynasty leagues. But already, he makes sense for any manager looking for an elite defenseman (and this list so far should highlight just how important that position is in the early goings of the draft).

11) Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers

It’s pretty surprising to see Draisaitl down at No. 11. It’s less about him and more about emerging stars in the league and the rise of more MVP-caliber defensemen. If you want a franchise forward up front and choose Draisaitl in the top five, no one would blame you.

12) Lane Hutson, D, Montreal Canadiens

There is a bit of a value drop off between Draisaitl and the No.12 spot. And there is a tight group of players who could make sense here — managers could go with Hutson, Jack Hughes, Moritz Seider or David Pastrnak. It again comes down to settings and drafting trends at this point.

Last first-round considerations: Say you’re in a 16-team league, or some of the top names are off the board, including Hughes, Seider, and Pastrnak. After that, the list continues to Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Adam Fox, Kirill Kaprizov and Jake Sanderson to round out the top 20.

Standard category leagues

Scoring System: goals (1), assists (1), shots (1), hits (1), plus-minus (1), power-play points (1) | goalie wins (1), shutouts (1), save percentage (1), goals against average (1)

1/2) Nathan MacKinnon | Connor McDavid

Let’s shift from points to categories, with the statistics that are typically included. MacKinnon and McDavid, unsurprisingly, stay at the top. Again, there is no wrong answer here. Just keep in mind their respective strengths — like McDavid’s power-play production versus MacKinnon’s shot volume — as you build the rest of your roster.

3) Cale Makar

There is a little more space between Makar and Werenski with this scoring system. Makar is the third-best option available.

4) Evan Bouchard

His scoring and peripherals are really close to Makar for these particular categories.

5) Nikita Kucherov

Kucherov’s scoring, plus-minus and shot volume move him up the ranks a bit.

6) Quinn Hughes7) Zach Werenski

Werenski sliding from No. 3 in points leagues to No. 7 here is the biggest dip so far. A few areas hold him back: the power play (Columbus ranked 18th in scoring last year, 17th in xG), his plus-minus and that he hits a little less than his counterparts. That being said, Werenski is still a fantastic add.

8) Rasmus Dahlin9) Leon Draisaitl10) Moritz Seider

It’s pretty risky to commit a high pick to a player in Detroit considering the uncertainty still swirling around the organization. If Dylan Larkin is traded for futures or up-and-comers, Seider’s even-strength and power-play production will be weighed upon. But his contributions will still be very valuable, especially for managers in leagues that feature hits over an outdated stat like plus-minus. So keep all this in mind as his name comes up; there are scenarios where he slides down to an early Round 2 pick instead.

11) Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB

A goalie! In this economy! While goalies can easily get overrated in fantasy drafts, their roles can be more important with four categories dedicated to just two or three netminders on roster. Vasilevskiy has put up sparkling regular-season numbers in recent years and has the support of a star-studded core that generally helps keep him toward the top of the league in wins.

12) Lane Hutson

If the Seider pick is too risky for your liking, look to the next highest-ranked defenseman — Hutson. The scoring does a lot of the heavy lifting, so just make sure to find depth defenders to check the other boxes.

With Vasilevskiy and Seider in, Celebrini and Schaefer slip out of the top 12. Both get dinged by plus-minus; Schaefer’s power-play production compared to the other top defensemen is another strike. But either one would still make sense as a late first-round pick. Just keep any potential gaps in their respective stat profiles in mind with future picks to ensure your team is as well-rounded as possible.

Late considerations: Robertson, Eichel, Connor Hellebuyck (even with his trade request in mind), Celebrini, Jakub Chychrun, Schaefer, Adam Fox.

Banger category leagues

Scoring System: goals (1), assists (1), shots (1), blocks (1), hits (1), penalty minutes (1) | goalie wins (1), shutouts (1), save percentage (1), goals against average (1)

1) Moritz Seider

If we go as extreme as possible for banger categories, adding blocks, hits and penalty minutes (in place of PPP and plus-minus), then Seider rises to the top. Would I pick him No.1, even with these categories? No. But I would keep him in mind in Round 1.

If your league has blocks and hits, but scores for power-play points instead of penalty minutes, he ticks down a few spots. But again, be mindful of the Dylan Larkin situation and the Red Wings’ overall direction.

2) Nathan MacKinnon3) Rasmus Dahlin4) Brady Tkachuk, LW, Florida Panthers

Tkachuk’s value peaks in banger leagues. But similar to Seider, the actual scoring categories matter a ton. If power-play points aren’t included as a category, he ranks really highly because it’s not clear if he’ll get much time on an already star-studded top unit. But if PPP replace penalty minutes, then he moves down to 39th overall.

5) Andrei Vasilevskiy6) Macklin Celebrini7) Connor Hellebuyck, G, Winnipeg Jets

As explained in this year’s goalie guide, there are two key risks with Hellebuyck: 1) His regular season numbers dipped last year, and 2) there is no update on his looming trade request. His age is a concern with last year’s dips in mind, but he may be able to chalk up any struggles to injury last year (and the team around him). When it comes to the trade request, remember that he has a lot of control in this situation and probably won’t accept a deal to a bottom-feeder if he is leaving Winnipeg looking to contend. And even if he sticks with an underwhelming Jets squad, just think about his heroics over the years with this team regardless of roster strength.

8) Connor McDavid

McDavid’s placement down here is pretty stark on the surface, but when you factor in his physical profile, it obviously makes more sense. A simple swap of PIM for PPP changes a lot and moves him back up to fourth. And just to have as complete of a view on different draft orders, here’s a quick snapshot of the top 12 by those settings:

Makar
McDavid
MacKinnon
Seider
Bouchard
Werenski
Quinn Hughes
Kucherov
Dahlin
Celebrini
Schaefer
Draisaitl

My take here is that even with this extreme of a scoring system, McDavid can be drafted sooner if you can stack up on the physical categories with your next few picks. At the very least, he will do the heavy lifting across all offensive categories on a nightly basis.

9) Nikita Zadorov, D, Boston Bruins

Want some shock value? It’s having Zadorov in the top 10 and Makar outside of it. Echoing the McDavid blurb, you don’t need to jump at players like this too early and can go off the board a little bit to prioritize skill, as long as you make up for it in the next few rounds.

And similar to Seider and Tkachuk, don’t forget that Zadorov doesn’t place anywhere near the top 10 if penalty minutes are replaced by power-play points.

10) Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals

As a strong all-around threat, Wilson has obvious perks in this format.

11) Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins

The same goes for McAvoy, who always contributed to the physical categories. While his offense isn’t elite, it’s starting to balance out some of the peripherals, which makes his overall profile shine in this setting.

12) Zach Werenski

Werenski’s slide to No. 12 (and Makar’s to No. 15) highlights just how much priorities can shift when offense isn’t the primary, or the only, fantasy scoring driver. This just stresses how important it is to fill out the cheat sheet accordingly, based on your league settings.

Late considerations: Pastrnak, Makar, Darnell Nurse, Chychrun, Bouchard.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, HockeyStats, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.