After locking up UFA Drake Batherson, the Ottawa Senators have several remaining veterans who will need new contracts at some point. In most cases, the team will likely let the season unfold before pursuing extensions. One player to watch is defenseman Artem Zub, who is entering the final season of a four-year, $18.4MM deal ($4.6MM AAV). That contract has been a discount for the Senators, as Zub has remained a solid defensive defender and has grown more capable with the puck on his stick in recent years.
The soon-to-be 31-year-old has been a staple of the Senators for six seasons, and with the team firmly entrenched in a win-now window, it will be interesting to see how they proceed with a player who plays a tough style of game and has dealt with injury issues in the past and currently. Zub is expected to miss the start of the season, which isn’t a great start for a player entering his potential walk year.
Zub’s stats don’t exactly leap off the page, but his value to the Senators extends beyond the box score. He is an excellent rush defender, very adept in his own zone, and he can chip in offensively from time to time. Zub often gets the toughest defensive assignments, and he generally delivers the best defensive results. His 30 points in 81 games last season were a career high, but he’s unlikely to sustain it. However, that defensive prowess should remain for at least the next couple of seasons.
That’s where the tricky part of these negotiations for the Senators comes in. Zub is very effective right now, but will he be as effective at 34? How about at 36? That matters because Zub will likely want his next deal to be as long as possible, and it would make sense for him to ask for six years and settle for five if he needs to. AFP Analytics has Zub projected to make just a shade over $5MM annually on his next deal, a four-year contract. But with the kind of money and term that was thrown around this summer, it wouldn’t be a shock to see teams go to four or five years if he reaches the UFA market.
Even if the Senators can get Zub on a four-year deal, it’s not a slam dunk that those years will yield positive results relative to the money Zub will get. If they pay him $5MM annually, they would likely be okay, but given the state of the salary cap, another solid season will likely push Zub’s next AAV north of $6MM per season. Can Zub still provide solid defensive work for Ottawa at age 35? It’s entirely possible, but given his style of play, it’s also entirely possible his play falls off a cliff at age 33.
That’s the tough part with defensive defensemen: they don’t exactly age gracefully, and 33 is a unique number for them, since many finish their NHL careers by then. Just ask a couple of local Ottawa products, Calvin de Haan and Marc Methot, who both ironically played their last NHL games at age 33. It’s also entirely possible that Zub plays until he’s 40; you never really know how well a player’s health will hold up. Methot and de Haan could’ve played NHL games much longer if Methot hadn’t suffered a horrific knee injury and de Haan hadn’t openly voiced his displeasure with the New York Rangers’ treatment and lack of communication.
The case for signing Zub is straightforward: he can play big minutes, other defensemen want to play with him, and he frees up skilled offensive players to do their thing without worrying about who will back them up if they make a mistake. The Senators have also seen their defense without Zub, and the right side isn’t great when he has to step away. Zub was hurt in Game 1 of the playoffs against Carolina, and it was a big loss for the Sens, who were eventually swept in four games. There is no clear heir apparent for Zub right now, but one could be coming, which would change how Ottawa approaches these negotiations.
And Ottawa shouldn’t necessarily be in a rush because they may have Carter Yakemchuk coming. While it would be unfair to assume he’s going right into the top four, it’s possible he could be there in the next few years. That’s a huge part of what Ottawa needs to do here: project Zub and where he goes in the next three to five years, and also look at Yakemchuk and figure out his projection. If Ottawa feels that the young Yakemchuk is at least three years away from being a top-four fixture, then signing Zub should be a priority, but if they feel he’ll be ready sooner, it will be less of a concern whether he stays or goes.
Speaking of projections, Zub’s projection must also account for his injuries, given the likelihood he will be injured at some point in the next few years, if not this year, based on recent history. Ottawa already has a frequently injured defenseman in Thomas Chabot, who has played 80 games just once in his career over 10 years. Chabot is making big money for the next two years, but it’s hard to say whether Ottawa will be comfortable extending him well into his thirties, given his injury history.
Outside of Chabot’s $8MM cap hit and Jake Sanderson’s $8.05MM cap hit, Ottawa hasn’t committed much money to its back end. Jordan Spence is owed $5MM per season for the next four years, and Yakemchuk is on his rookie deal for the next three. That gives Ottawa plenty of room to extend Zub if they choose, and money probably won’t be the biggest concern in their negotiations. The Spence deal is particularly interesting given that he is now a top-four defenseman. If you couple him with Zub as the team’s top four on the right side, it could block Yakemchuk’s path to the Senators’ top four, although it could also motivate the 20-year-old.
Then there is Tyler Kleven, who, at 24, is firmly established as an NHL defenseman and might be the most physical of the group outside of Zub, though he is particular about when he shows it. Kleven is signed to a very team-friendly $1.6MM AAV but offers a very different game than Zub and shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of potential replacement. While he is sound defensively and should still have some upside, he’s unlikely to be a top-four fixture for the Senators, and Ottawa shouldn’t count on him to be one.
Now, perhaps the most interesting question is how much it will cost to replace Zub if Ottawa lets him walk. Free agency is likely out, as Ottawa generally doesn’t attract top free agents. The list of free-agent right-shot defensemen for next summer isn’t great, and it’s only going to get shorter. One name that might come to mind is Erik Karlsson but given that he will be 37 and shares almost none of Zub’s attributes, that’s probably not the right fit. Karlsson could very well want to go back to Ottawa, but even if he did, he’s not a long-term solution. Perhaps Rasmus Ristolainen or Justin Faulk will still be available, but neither is likely an upgrade on Zub, and neither would cost more in AAV.
Ultimately, this decision has two sides. Keep Zub, maintain continuity, avoid the pitfalls of finding a replacement, and perhaps keep your other top defensemen happy for a few seasons. Meanwhile, you’re rolling the dice on a defender who plays heavy minutes and is in his 30s. Or, on the flip side, gamble on the young Yakemchuk, or try to find a replacement in free agency or the trade market, while potentially disrupting chemistry and other defenders’ morale.
It’s not going to be an easy decision, but like every decision at this stage of their window, Ottawa needs to get this one right if they hope to take the next steps on their path to contention. Ottawa doesn’t need to decide yet and could let the season play out to see whether they are even in contention at the NHL Trade Deadline, or to assess how Zub is playing and his health. If everything is in order, they can always extend him in the new year. If not, they have a terrific trade chip at the deadline. Zub is a difficult player for Ottawa to replace, but he’s also a difficult contract to issue given age and injury concerns. It’ll be fascinating to see how the Senators navigate things.