Gavin McKenna of the Toronto Maple Leafs during an exhibition game earlier this month (Photo: Sammy Kogan/The Canadian Press).
As often as it can be fickle, unshakable too, is belief.
Although it could very well be countered that few sports teams have squandered their provided goodwill more frequently than the Toronto Maple Leafs.
If returning to competitive relevancy over the past decade, only to see optimism and reality rear competing heads.
Be dammed the sweaters of All-Stars littering the concourse of SBA. Be dammed the regular season success and a payroll, if misallocated, reflecting those grossly outsized profit margins.
Be dammed, still elusive, the ultimate prize, in championship glory.
Consider, their breaking through to the second round of the postseason for the second time in three years as division champions, in 2024/2025 – after being continually stymied in the first – only to see that supposed victory be nothing but hollow too.
Seasons of promise, coming to be defined exclusively by what was not in the so-dubbed Shanaplan Era. Eleven years under the stewardship of former president Brendan Shanahan, delivering a 2-11 postseason series record, capped off with a 0-6 run in close out Game 7s (per Sportsnet).
The Leafs, as flummoxed by Florida and Boston as they were by themselves. Unable, opportunity given after opportunity wasted, to meet the moment.
Sure, the departure of Mitch Marner to Las Vegas however necessary, undeniably stung too. The hometown boy, brought down by a lack of pure killer instinct as much as he was directly ran out of the same city that once sung his praises.
But the pieces, on paper and through a measure of proven execution, remained.
Instead, while the more cynical will point to Marner’s absence as the key driver, the team’s 2025/2026, in which they missed the playoffs altogether, was not a result of one player alone, trading in his blue-and-white.
Be it limping to an injury-riddled, 78-point, 32–36–14 campaign (a 30 point drop, season-over-season) mired in empty coverage and poor defensive play (most succinctly punctuated by a negative, -46 goal differential and 2,660 shots conceded, the most NHL-wide) or the utter collapse of the cultural facade.
Once more, as rotten in Denmark as it was on Bay Street.
Yet with everything balanced equally, making note of their summer-that-was, it is hard to take the what-could-be of Toronto’s 2026/2027 season, set to open on Tuesday, as a direct continuation of what preceded it.
Though as they continue to chase their first Stanley Cup since 1967, it isn’t the goalposts that have moved, no.
Simply the hope that the method to get there has truly evolved.
From left-to-right: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares of the Toronto Maple Leafs in a file photo (Photo: Mark Blinch/Getty Images).
Most notably, the team’s entire leadership arm in the suites has been turned over.
After eight seasons in Toronto, Hall of Famer Hayley Wickenheiser is out as assistant GM and on the bench, Daniel Alfredsson, he of former Battle of Ontario infamy, comes aboard as an assistant coach.
Now, it is hard to see his role as anything but casually ceremonial, considering his complete lack of prior experience.
Yet as he steps into new shoes, as an advisor of hockey ops, Toronto’s all-time leading scorer in Mats Sundin will, if nothing else, provide an attempt at vailed, visible stability (blatantly coated in nostalgia as it is).
Jim Hiller takes over behind the bench for Craig Berube, Hiller, having previously worked in Toronto under a thrice-disgraced (and painfully, unnecessarily restored in Edmonton) Mike Babcock. Ideally looking to recapture the open-ice, high-tempo style for which the team’s top players have already proven themselves keen to thrive under, if not mistaking that leeway for complete defensive indifference either.
Murkier, is just what to make of still minted general manager, John Chayka.
At 37, Chayka remains the youngest GM in the League, worth noting given the position is still historically dominated by the old boy’s club. And although his summer was busy, as he worked to reinvigorate the Leafs as contenders, it must be acknowledged that he has been out of hockey entirely for the past five years.
Unofficially blacklisted by the NHL following a series of rule violations during his time in Arizona and now, if reinstated, given the top job in the League’s biggest market with little runway.
If sure to be a dutiful corporate husk to his MLSE overlords, considering, scrutiny is sure to follow and quickly so, should his program falter out of the gate.
For no matter how much the edges have been tweaked, once again, Toronto’s success, whatever comes, will be defined by how their top players, new and old, deliver.
William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs in a file photo (Photo: Steve Russell/Toronto Star).
And at face value, with camp in the rearview mirror and no less than eight fringe players on waivers, this shouldn’t be an impossible ask.
Prominently, Darren Raddysh’s presence on the blueline should at last lessen the expectations around Morgan Rielly as the team’s power play quarterback. That being, a role for which Rielly, never a true number-one, has struggled in as of late, if accounting for the drop in his footwork.
Otherwise, with all three of Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson back in the mix, still solid enough players if not expected to move the needle, Rielly having more breathing room should be beneficial to the fortitude of his overall game. Especially so, over the course of a now 84-game regular season.
Nick Blankenburg, if a late signing on Sunday will be a depth piece but banking on Raddysh to simply run it back wholesale is a risky, even foolish ask. As he is, coming off a career year in Tampa Bay (22/48/70) in which he exceeded his prior point total by 33 and his shooting percentage by a whole 4.8 percent (per Hockey Reference).
At 30 and signed to an eight year, $68 million dollar deal, should he stumble or fall well below expectations, he is locked into a commitment the Leafs will have no choice but to navigate around even as the League’s cap celling continues to escalate.
Behind them however, with Joesph Woll now in Philadelphia, there is something darkly comedic about Toronto handing the starting reigns of their crease to Sergei Bobrovsky. Indeed, the same Bobrovsky who saw their hand forced more than once by way of his clutch excellence in Florida.
Of course, while his final season with the Panthers was not to his established level (sporting a pitiful .877 save percentage), Bobrovsky is a goaltender with no shortage of pedigree. Seventh all-time in wins (456) and a two-time Venzia and Cup winner both, the only thing he has left to prove is just how long his love of the game will last.
Admirable and yes, to his credit he looked terrific in camp. But at 37 and signed to a three-year deal, the Leafs are gambling here.
Typically, goalies do age with a dash more grace than most everybody else, that is true. But Bobrovsky would not be the first goaltender signed in Toronto on the back of past glories, only then being asked to lift the Curse of Harold Ballard singlehandedly.
To silence nothing if not the loudest doubters, a return to his partial form should be enough, at least for one season, given prior standard.
Meanwhile, after arriving to the draft lottery in May with only the fifth-best odds, at 8.5 percent, the Leafs jumped the queue and with the first overall pick, selected Whitehorse’s Gavin McKenna. Who, after a slow start to his single collegiate season at Penn State – and one coloured by legal trouble – found an impressive rhythm. One that was sure to spotlight his IQ, vision and noted playmaking ability.
He may not make the immediate jump to star rookie status but insulated somewhat by the current group, he shouldn’t need to, as he works to find his way in pro hockey.
For that is the question.
The team’s big dogs, if no longer untested wunderkinds, are still their big dogs.
John Tavares was again impressive in 2024/2025, despite the team around him, putting up 31 goals and playing a full slate for the first time since his debut season in Toronto. But he turned 36 last week and if still a key member of the leadership group, shouldn’t be counted on night-in, night-out. Matthew Knies, entering his fourth season, should take another step forward and William Nylander, if still possessing the moxie of a junior riding a smelling salt high, at 30, is now square in his peak years.
Now ninth all-time in franchise assists, if he can push for another 40-goal season and potentially, 90-odd points, in ahem, style no less, it should continue to prove his contract as being more than worth the expense, despite his on-record defensive shortcomings.
Auston Matthews though, is trickier to nail down.
Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs in a file photo (Mark Blinch/NHL/Getty Images).
And it isn’t a matter of talent with the Leafs captain, far from it.
Despite coming off the worst statistical season of his career, marred with injury as it was, as he failed to hit the 30-goal milestone for the first time, Matthews’ year was full of noted extremes.
On one hand, he surpassed Sundin in early January, to stand alone as the greatest goal scorer in team history. And as the new season begins, he sits in fourth all-time on the franchise’s point list (780) and tenth (352) on the assist leaderboard.
After two straight down years, it bears remembering that, when healthy, few other players, if any, can actively match up with Matthews. His combination of defensive size, hands and goal-scoring ability second-to-none having posted two 60-goal seasons while collecting three Rockets (goal-scoring titles), a Hart (MVP) and a Lindsey (NHLPA MVP) all within his first ten seasons.
Following a swirling of rumours surrounding his future in the spring, he seemed healthy and eager to get the season underway upon commencing the shortened exhibition slate and fair enough. As should he choose to commit to Toronto for the long-term, perhaps beyond the four-year deal he signed in 2023, his spot in Legends Row will be assured.
Though after he captained the US Men’s Olympic Team to gold in Milan, only then to stand proudly next to Donald Trump in Washington, as the American President, a rapist and convicted felon, spouted off tirades of bigotry and hatred, it came on the heels of tensions, continually inflamed.
Men’s hockey is, with rare exception, a white, upper-class and deeply conservative sport with little post-secondary retention for its top players. So the revealing of much of its cohort aligning on those metrics, if disappointing, shouldn’t come as a shock.
Yet as America’s democratic backsliding continues seemingly unimpeded, the trade-war between the US and Canada remains in lockstep and in the face of annexation talks, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has openly acknowledged the possibility of preparing for a potential US invasion, it serves as another reminder.
Sports and politics are and have always been, fundamentally intertwined and demanding one exist without the other is not just a take mired in ignorance but increasingly so, danger.
That isn’t to say Matthews, a hockey player through-and-through should suddenly take on the role of a politician, seasoned and poised, not quite.
But as many of his Milan running mates attempt to strong-arm their way south, to the evidently red friendly clubs of Dallas, Vegas and Florida, the scent of collusion and men of repulsive character being on the wrong side of history both, is evident.
And as captain, Matthews is deemed the first responsible for the culture in the room he leads.
The apathy present in Toronto over the years, more so under his watch, seemingly strong enough that his own teammates were hesitant to come to his aid following the violent knee-on-knee that ended his season and well, that speaks volumes.
All signs point to Toronto rebounding as contenders in 2026/2027, if still in the NHL’s toughest division with little room for error. If mostly supplementary, their new additions should blend well, rookie Gavin McKenna could surprise and the veterans, barring disaster, should match their projections well.
Though while a championship remains the goal, as it has been for the past fifty nine years, the Leafs can only get there united, in shared pursuit.
We shall see soon enough if they do.