The book is supposedly out on New York Rangers forward Alexis Lafreniere as he enters his seventh NHL season.
The story reads like this: Lafreniere, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NHL Draft, isn’t a franchise forward — and will never become one. He’s a quality player who might finally exceed the 60-point mark in his career at some point, but he isn’t a generational talent like more recent top draft picks such as Connor Bedard (2023), Macklin Celebrini (2024) and Matthew Schaefer (2025).
It’s likely true that Lafreniere probably won’t reach the heights for which Bedard, Celebrini and Schaefer — No. 1 overall picks who signaled they were franchise talents almost immediately — appear destined. A look at three other players, however, suggests that Lafreniere’s ceiling might be considerably higher than the current evaluations suggest — and that he’s at the point where a leap to another level could start.
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Alexis Lafreniere could follow path of Sam Reinhart, Martin Necas, Pavel Buchnevich
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After a quiet first three games of 2026-27, Lafreniere looked to be finding his stride in the past two. He played a strong game in the Rangers’ 4-2 win over the Utah Mammoth on Sunday, recording an assist on Gabe Perreault’s goal, hitting the crossbar after a pretty spin move late in the first period, and setting up a number of other good scoring chances. He then busted out against the New York Islanders on Tuesday, recording his third career hat trick (two goals were empty-netters) and adding an assist in a 5-2 victory.
The empty-net tallies were a result of coach Mike Sullivan using him to defend in a 5-on-6 situation after the Islanders pulled goaltender Semyon Varlamov while trailing 3-2 late in the third period.
“We felt like he had some breakthrough moments the second half of last year, with just his overall daily process,” Sullivan said. “I think there’s a little bit more of a maturity to his approach every day that I think is helping him.”
Lafreniere thrived following the Winter Olympics after being placed on a line with Mika Zibanejad and Perreault. He had 12 goals and 28 points in his final 27 games to match his career high with 57 points (24 goals, 33 assists). Coach Mike Sullivan kept the trio together this season, and the last two games suggest that he might be picking up where he left off.
With his 25th birthday just days away, an examination of the career paths of three now-established stars offers hope that Lafreniere could be headed down a similar road.
Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart was also a high draft pick — No. 2 overall by the Buffalo Sabres in 2014, one spot ahead of Edmonton Oilers superstar Leon Draisaitl. Reinhart had 65 points in 2018-19, his fourth full NHL season, but otherwise topped out at 50 twice in his six seasons in Buffalo. He looked like a decent contributor, but nowhere near the player drafted one spot behind him.
Although he’s not Draisaitl, a change of scenery to the Florida Panthers for 2021-22 allowed Reinhart to finally fulfill his considerable potential. At age 26 and in his seventh full season, Reinhart scored 33 goals with 49 assists in 78 games in 2021-22. He had 31 goals and 36 assists the next season, and in 2023-24, he poured in 57 goals to go with 37 assists. Reinhart scored 189 goals and had 385 points in 389 games during his first five seasons with the Panthers, helping Florida win the Stanley Cup in 2024 and 2025.
Then there’s Colorado Avalanche forward Martin Necas, drafted 12th overall in 2017 by the Carolina Hurricanes. Necas had 71 points in 2022-23, then regressed to 53 points in 77 games the next season. Prior to those two, he put up 40 points in 78 games in 2021-22, and totaled 77 points in 117 games over the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, his first two in the NHL.
However, Necas fully unlocked his game in 2024-25. At age 25 and in his sixth season, he had 55 points in 49 games with the Hurricanes, and following his trade to the Avs in the blockbuster deal for Mikko Rantanen, added 28 points in 30 games. Necas then hit the 100-point mark with 38 goals and 62 assists for Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado in 2025-26.
The situations involving Reinhart and Necas aren’t exact parallels to that of Lafreniere. Reinhart escaped a bad situation in Buffalo and joined a team whose window for Stanley Cup contention was beginning to open. Necas skates with superstar Nathan MacKinnon on Colorado’s powerful top line. Still, both players had the light go on for them at a similar age and stage of their careers to where Lafreniere is now.
An even more relevant comparison for Lafreniere might be former Ranger and current St. Louis Blues forward Pavel Buchnevich. He showed promise after being a third-round pick of the Blueshirts in 2013, making the roster as a 21-year-old in 2016-17. He had 51 goals and 76 assists for 127 points in 206 games in his first three full seasons, yet often came across as sullen, immature and unsure of himself.
In the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, however, Buchnevich put up 48 points in 54 games and emerged as a 200-foot factor, posting a plus-12 rating thanks to a strong defensive game. He also established himself as a trusted penalty-killer.
After what turned out to be an ill-fated trade to the Blues for salary-cap reasons during the 2021 offseason, Buchnevich — then 26 and in his sixth NHL season — continued to blossom into an all-situations force. He’s scored at least 20 goals in all five seasons with the Blues, putting up 311 points in 373 games with a plus-46 rating.
Mike Sullivan’s focus on Alexis Lafreniere’s game likely to prove pivotal
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Buchnevich’s journey from uncertain youngster to confident, highly productive NHL regular should serve as a reminder that the development of young talent involves emotional maturation as well as on-ice growth. Most prospects are drafted by their teams as teenagers and are still in the process of becoming men.
It’s also important to remember that the growth isn’t always linear. Necas appeared to have authored a breakout one season, only to take a step back the next. Reinhart failed to take another big step forward the season after his career-best 65-point effort in 2018-19. That’s what happened with Lafreniere, who seemed to have arrived with his 57-point regular season and 14-point playoff performance in 2023-24. He dropped to 45 points with a career-worst minus-13 rating the next season.
A similar process might be playing out with Lafreniere. Questions about his training regimen and commitment to his craft abounded for much of his still-young career. But when thrust into a bigger role following the trade of star winger Artemi Panarin in February; Lafreniere appears to be rising to the added responsibility.
Sullivan made Lafreniere’s development a priority after taking the Rangers job in May 2025, emphasizing the Quebec native’s need to work on his net-front game and incrementally increasing his role, such as putting him out to protect the one-goal lead against the Islanders.
“The next level for me with Laf is he’s gotta continue that offensive element because he’s capable, and now it’s just on the other side of the puck, just this conscientious game away from the puck, positional play in the defensive zone,” Sullivan said this week. “If you noticed, we’re using him five on six. That’s a responsibility, that’s a privilege. But we think he’s a guy that’s very capable there, so we’re challenging him in there to bring a defensive conscience in those situations, and he gets rewarded with some empty-net opportunities.
“But we’re not just handing that stuff to Laf. We think he’s earned that, and that’s why we’ve given him that opportunity. I think his overall game, his complete game on both sides of the puck, continues to grow and develop.”
The Rangers can only hope their coach is right. If he is, Blueshirts fans might indeed finally get something close to the player they expected when the lottery balls gave them the No. 1 pick in the draft six years ago.
Tom grew up a New York Rangers fan and general fan of the NHL in White Plains, NY, and … More about Tom Castro
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