Silver linings will be hard to find for the Red Wings this season. We’ve seen it early. There’s been some pretty brutal moments to start the season. Obviously, there have been off-the-ice moments with Dylan Larkin and the ongoing Simon Edvinsson sagas. But the on-ice play hasn’t been much better at times. The good news is the Red Wings have won two games and are currently riding a four-game point streak. Even better news is that two of the Red Wings key young forwards are behind it.
Emmitt Finnie was pretty overlooked, even by some of the biggest Red Wings truthers. Yes, his rookie season was great, but most fans projected him as that elite bottom-six talent that championship teams need. A Darren Helm, if you will. But a 30-point rookie season is nothing to scoff at, especially on a pretty offensively anemic team like the Red Wings. Many people, me included, foresaw incremental development in a smaller role. With the injuries to Marco Kasper and J.T. Compher, the second-line center spot opened up, and Andrew Copp clearly lost his ability to hold it down. Finnie got the opportunity, and now any conversations about Emmitt Finnie’s ceiling need to pause until further notice because the signs of something great are there.
The same goes for rookie Michael Brandsegg-Nygård. The rhetoric was largely the same as it was for Emmitt Finnie. Great talent, but probably just a middle-six guy. Brandsegg-Nygård has made that conversation look stupid. After finally breaking free of the inept bottom-six, Brandsegg-Nygård has found himself putting in work alongside Alex DeBrincat and Emmitt Finnie. His speed and physicality make him a natural fit anywhere, but his surprising playmaking and chemistry with Emmitt Finnie have made the line very formidable.
The two, alongside Alex DeBrincat (who I’ll admit is still the best player on the line), have given the Red Wings a true second layer behind the first line. Unlike in seasons past, the line isn’t limited by deployments, physical challenges, or game tempo; they’re well-rounded and breaking out.
The Numbers
Red Wings forward Emmitt Finnie | AP Photo/Ryan Sun
It’s easy to say the Red Wings most productive line has been good. Shocker. What I really should be saying is that Detroit’s second line is giving anyone standing up to them the belt by almost every metric.
Care for counting stats? The line is a +6, outscoring their opponents 7-1 in just over 70:00 minutes of ice time. They’ve been producing massively on offense while maintaining solid defensive integrity, something the Red Wings’ second line isn’t used to.
I understand Patrick Kane certainly had his weaknesses, but I pointed out multiple times that the sheltering of the second line was a problem. Patrick Kane needed to be out in the offensive zone against the other team’s lower-level players to be most effective. That forced the Red Wings to play everyone else on offense.
On-Ice Details
That’s not the case this season. While Finnie and Brandsegg-Nygård are still getting majority offensive zone starts, they’re taking on tougher quality of competition than the Dylan Larkin line is at the moment. Emmitt Finnie has the lowest opposition relative Corsi for % of his line at 0.567, while Dylan Larkin has the highest of his line at 0.639. Having multiple lines that can go at any moment not only allows more flexibility in matchups, but also frees the bottom-six from taking on tougher opponents they can’t handle because of the sheltering.
The line has been great away from the goals for and deployments as well. Their Corsi for remains an elite 58.4%, and their shot share is a similar 59.7%. They’ve controlled the play offensively and limited the other team’s chances.
They’ve been pretty solid physically, though Brandsegg-Nygård has done a lot of heavy lifting. Brandsegg-Nygård has landed 3.8 hits per game, a number that should climb as his ice time does.
The only gripe with this line is Emmitt Finnie in the face-off circle. I know he hasn’t got many reps at center yet, so the already adequate %42.4 shouldn’t be seen as a negative. But if this line is to hold, they’re going to need to see that number rise. More pucks won back, especially in the offensive zone, could help the Red Wings really get the offense going.
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård Showing Early Signs of Being Elite
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (28) is one of three rookies making his NHL debut tonight for the Red Wings. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
The skill set for Brandsegg-Nygård already feels like that of a veteran forward. He can shoot the lights out, get to the dirty areas for offense, free the puck for his teammates, and has a solid playmaking bag. It’s weird to say about a rookie forward, but Michael Brandsegg-Nygård looks incredibly refined for being so early into his career.
I almost don’t want to say it because I’ve called it too soon with Marco Kasper and Emmitt Finnie in the past, but MBN looks like a legitimate top-six power forward. The point ceiling is still a total question mark for me, partly because it’s too soon to say, but if Brandsegg-Nygård is who he appears to be, there’s a perennial 60+ point guy here.
The first step to seeing some added offense would probably be a bigger role on the power play. I’ve liked Victor Arvidsson to this point, but having one of your smaller forwards being the crease-crasher on the power play probably isn’t ideal. Brandsegg-Nygård is a great screener and finisher; personally, I think he’s earned the top spot, and I’m curious to see if he gets the nod there soon.
Defensive Game
The defensive game needs work, but he’s a rookie forward; that’s not unusual. So far, I’d say he’s been pretty adequate defensively, which is a plus given the rest of his game. Aside from that, the offense, transition game, and physical edge are all traits of a star forward in the future.
The good news is that, unlike Emmitt Finnie last year, his point totals haven’t been tied to a red-hot Dylan Larkin. Hell, the team’s been shut out in 2 of their 8 games so far; ideally, team scoring can only go up from here (literally, as JFresh’s model has them at 32nd in finishing metrics). Brandsegg-Nygård has shown the signs; can he keep it up?
Red Wings Treading Water, Though Tougher Opponents are to Come
Red Wings goaltender holding off Thomas Chabot | AP Photo/Lon Horwedel
Detroit has climbed back to hockey .500, though that isn’t saying much given their schedule. But hanging around the middle of the division, given the circumstances, isn’t a bad thing because the Red Wings certainly have their excuses to this point.
The Red Wings are missing Simon Edvinsson and were without Dylan Larkin for two close losses. Obviously there are no promises that the presence would lead to wins, but missing two of your best five-(ish) players isn’t a recipe for success, especially when you lack any real depth.
Detroit’s also been missing Marco Kasper and J.T. Compher, two of their depth centers. Admittedly, it’s worked out as Emmitt Finnie has been great in that spot, but missing centers is never a good recipe.
There have also been 5 players who are essentially in their rookie seasons. Danielson, Mazur, and MBN have been taking on some pretty big roles, and Wallinder and Johansson have been solid in the top four. As they get further acclimated, any lapses should be glossed over.
The final caveat is that the Red Wings’ losses have come against teams playing pretty well right now. The Rangers, Jets, and Kraken are all off to hot starts, beating legitimate teams, not just Detroit.
As for now, though, the good times are rolling for Detroit.
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