After starting the season by getting points in just one of their first four games, Detroit has followed that up by netting points in seven of their last eight. The turnaround has been pretty admirable. Late-game heroics, amicable rookie efforts across the board, and headline-worthy moments have gotten them back on track, and their September was largely ho-hum.
One month into the season, there still isn’t a solution to Simon Edvinsson or Dylan Larkin. The news around Detroit is certainly focused there; I can tell you that from my view counts. Detroit’s stretch of good play has gone largely under the radar as they’ve played many middling teams.
The nights have gotten late for fans as Detroit hit the road to play Seattle, Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton. Detroit ended the trip 2-1-1 with a mix of great efforts, strong comebacks, gritty plays, and borderline laughable moments as well. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of it all, I’m going to give my biggest takeaways for the trip.
John Gibson is Officially Expendable
John Gibson for the Detroit Red Wings | Photo: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Maybe it’s too early. It certainly was when I was out on him at this point last season. To this point, though, Daniil Tarasov and Michal Postava are young and seizing the net in Detroit, and it makes the veteran goaltender at risk.
John Gibson has a dismal .867% save percentage with a -4.80 GSAx through just 8 starts to this point. The first game against the Kraken this season saw him absolutely cave in the second period on route to Seattle burying the Red Wings pretty early. Against one of the NHL’s worst offenses in the Calgary Flames, Gibson was the main reason the Red Wings lost.
His pedigree will need to do a lot of lifting for the Red Wings to get a return, but his contract being up at the end of the season will be a pretty big reason to do so. John Gibson at 50% retention (which Detroit can do comfortably) will certainly grab the interest of any contenders looking for a goalie. Florida, Edmonton, Carolina, and Vegas are all probably looking for an affordable add in net; with cap retention, it could get Detroit a pretty nice asset back. Premium assets, no, but certainly a shiny new thing for the team.
Part of the benefit would be the change in the goalie room. Getting Tarasov and Postava into the net full time gives Detroit a young tandem that they can really get a feel for and decide if that’s going to be the unit for the future. Both have looked good so far, and as it stands, the Red Wings aren’t risking much by swapping Gibson for either of those two on the ice.
The Red Wings Volatility is Exciting, but Costly
Former captain Dylan Larkin for the Red Wings | AP Photo/Ryan Sun
Detroit is hanging around in the standings; as it stands, they’re just barely out of the playoffs. They’ve managed wins against the Senators and Oilers, who are two of the NHL’s best teams to this point. On the flip side, they’ve blown points to the Flames and Jets, who haven’t been very good. Truthfully, the Red Wings look pretty solid for being down Simon Edvinsson and Marco Kasper pretty much the whole season. The problem is “pretty-solid” isn’t a solution to the Red Wings’ problems in the short or long term.
Let me be clear: making the playoffs, especially amidst the drama, would be a good thing for the Red Wings. It would break the drought and more importantly the stigma around the team to other players in the league. Players would take Detroit off their no-trade list and be more willing to hear Detroit out in free agency.
Though if Detroit does tank, they could get the elite prospect they’re looking for that could push this core over the top. For a draft with Landon Dupont, Alexis Joseph, and plenty of other pretty promising top players, Detroit might be wise to net some talent through the draft.
The answer to Detroit’s problems certainly doesn’t lie in the mushy middle, and frankly that’s where things promise to sit should they keep on their current trajectory. Sure, a Dylan Larkin trade could drastically sway this team for better or worse. Dealing Simon Edvinsson or simply bringing him back on a new deal could be a huge addition to getting this team standing points. If they’re serious about competing, they can’t do it without Edvinsson and the noise around Larkin.
The much harder November might be the answer for all this though. If the league’s best teams maul Detroit beyond repair, it’ll be time to sell off, and Detroit will easily tank. But if Detroit manages to keep their head above water in November and figure out Simon Edvinsson before it’s too late, it could restore hope. But if this is another season that has Detroit from pick 8-15, the franchise is going to be in pretty serious trouble.
There is Something with This Red Wings Team
Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond | AP Photo/ Paul Sancya
There’s something about this team that really makes me pause on all the tanking talk. Believe me, I hate that I’m sitting down each night with the hopes for a win. The zeitgeist is certainly in favor of tanking. Say what you want, but playing a rookie goalie in his first game against the NHL’s most potent offense feels like an admission of failure as a team, but again, there’s fight.
Detroit had comebacks against Seattle and Edmonton that seemed unlikely and were en route to some pretty big points. Even a prior game against the Sharks had a late spark that this team has really lacked in the past.
Even without Marco Kasper (still) and Simon Edvinsson as lineup staples, the team doesn’t look bad. A year ago, losses like this would’ve spelled the end of the Red Wings, but through great play from William Wallinder, Anton Johansson, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, and Viktor Arvidsson, they have come into the roster and have given Detroit some excellent minutes.
Moritz Seider has said it since the start of the season that the Red Wings are playing for keeps. You wonder if that becomes a motivator for Shawn Horcoff to make some moves to push the team forward. Does this lead to the Red Wings paying an apology tax to get Edvinsson back as soon as possible? Does Detroit possibly flip (non-premium) assets for some help, even in the short term?
It feels ridiculous, but this team is weirdly complete in a way the previous iterations of the team haven’t been. Each of the team’s top-six wingers is a two-way, productive winger who can produce at even strength. The defense core is missing an integral asset and remains solid through some pretty fantastic depth. The goaltending is average to this point, but the structure of the team has been great at suppressing shots and pushing the play in their favor to mask that. Even the forward depth, which has been poor, will get some support with the return of Marco Kasper, whenever that comes.
The real problem with the Red Wings is simply the noise. If Simon Edvinsson was signed and Dylan Larkin was a solved issue, the question would be how to add to the depth of this team so the poor performances in the bottom six don’t continue. I believe that’s an issue that can still be solved independently.
As I mentioned before, if Detroit gets rocked by the NHL’s best teams in November, I’ll probably concede hope and start looking into draft prospects. But if the same bite and effort that’s dragged them to a .500 points percentage despite missing some pretty big names for a lot of time is present, there might be hope yet for this team.