The first big move for the new New York Islanders general manager (GM) Mathieu Darche is selecting an elite talent with the top pick in the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. Then comes the short turnaround and free agency, where the Islanders are in a tough spot. They can push to contend, but also sit back and have a quiet summer while retooling.
A spending spree would be a breath of fresh air from the Lou Lamoriello era, where the Islanders never made a big move in free agency and instead trusted the group in place. Darche stated early in his GM tenure that he wants to build up the farm system, so it looks like the big moves will have to wait. At the same time, the Islanders have a roster set up to be a playoff team and might look to build around that for short-term success.
Related: The Case For & Against the Maple Leafs Re-Signing Mitch Marner
The player everyone wants and will target is Mitch Marner. He’s the most skilled skater heading to free agency, and multiple teams will look to add him to take them to the contention conversation. The Islanders can be one of those teams, yet it makes more sense for them to target other players in the offseason, players who can bridge the gap and keep them competitive while Darche builds up the farm system.
Marner Makes Islanders Better But Doesn’t Fit in Their Plans
One team will throw a lot of money at Marner to make him the highest-paid winger in the NHL, and while he might not be the best winger, it makes sense for a team to take that swing. He’s a consistent playmaker on offense and will take a borderline playoff team or one stuck in a rebuild into the playoffs for the next seven seasons. The Islanders are one of the teams that, by signing him, would add a top-line player to turn the offense into one of the best in the league and the team into a perennial playoff caliber one.
The first reason to avoid Marner is the contract he’ll inevitably get and how it will handcuff the Islanders. He’ll sign a seven-year deal at a high average annual value (AAV). Marner deserves to be paid like a core player, but the question is if the Islanders want to make him one. Would they want to build around him and four other players while limiting how much depth they can add? The answer is probably no, especially since it would keep the ceiling low.
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)
That leads to the other issue, which is the big picture. The Islanders have a low ceiling, and adding Marner doesn’t change that. At best, they are a playoff team that won’t go on a run. Marner proved throughout his career that he’s great for the regular season but won’t move the needle in the playoffs. The Islanders shouldn’t pay a player to be a part of the core unless he gets them over the hump.
Boeser is the Best Stop-Gap Star to Get
It’s interesting to see how Brock Boeser’s pending free agency has gone under the radar. Everyone was hyperfocused on the J.T. Miller trade and the disaster of a season that the Vancouver Canucks had that Boeser’s status went unnoticed. He wasn’t traded at the deadline, and considering how the season ended, the signs point to Boeser testing out free agency.
The focus this offseason is on Marner. After the star on the Toronto Maple Leafs comes the three skaters on the Florida Panthers, who teams will look to add with their championship pedigree. Meanwhile, Boeser is a scorer who will be a great addition to allow the Islanders to look like a playoff team and have an edge in the playoffs as well. Boeser isn’t a core player, but he’ll be great to have around to keep the Islanders competitive while the next wave of prospects develops.
The question is what type of contract will Boeser receive? Ideally, the Islanders give him a four-year deal with a high AAV (in the $8 million range), which is a substantial cap hit but doesn’t lock him into the roster for too long. Boeser will likely take less while searching for a long-term deal, knowing that at 28 years old, this is his last chance to land a seven-year contract. It’s why the Islanders must find a middle ground if they are going to sign him, and doing so doesn’t mean they are interfering with a retool.
Why Ehlers Also Fits the Bill
Nikolaj Ehlers staying with the Winnipeg Jets makes sense. He’s been a key part of their top six and works well with the other forwards on the roster. The way the season ended leaves his status as an unknown. The catch is that if Ehlers leaves the Jets, he’ll look to join a team on the cusp of contention, not one in limbo like the Islanders. However, the Islanders could still bring him in with a roster good enough already in place.
The injury history for Ehlers is a red flag, one that will have many teams avoiding him in the offseason. That said, the Islanders want a stop-gap option, a forward who keeps them competitive for the time being, and Ehlers can be that. He’s a reliable winger who will allow the offseason to be a good one.
Darche Must Take Care of In-House Signings First
Signing Marner, Boeser, or Ehlers seems like the next big task for Darche. It’s not. Alexander Romanov and Noah Dobson are both restricted free agents (RFAs) and expected to be the leaders of the defense for the future. Simon Holmstrom is also an RFA, and his contract will be a lot more than initially anticipated, as he became a key part of the forward unit. Darche must sign all three players to keep a strong roster intact and make sure it happens instead of losing any of them to an offer sheet.
Darche already has Kyle Palmieri and Adam Boqvist extended, keeping a top-six staple and a depth defenseman around for next season. Now, he must take care of the three RFA skaters. Then, if there’s enough cap space to make a big signing, Darche can make a move, but it’s better for him to avoid a player like Marner.
The Islanders have the flexibility to make a splash and be aggressive. The question is whether that makes sense considering where they are. This offseason is a good time for them to go out and sign someone, but they don’t need a skater to carry them. Instead, they need one who can keep them competitive while Darche builds up the farm system. Boeser and Ehlers fit the mold.
