The Columbus Blue Jackets are back home after their first multi-city road trip of the season. While it started well for them in the win column, they didn’t get the ending they were hoping for.
After defeating the Philadelphia Flyers 4-3 in overtime, the Blue Jackets suffered a 3-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes and a 3-1 loss to the Dallas Stars. The Stars’ game in particular was frustrating for them as they controlled the last 40 minutes of play but only came up with one goal to show for it.
At 5-7-0, the Blue Jackets are looking up in the Eastern Conference standings. Thanks to the Philadelphia Flyers’ win over the Utah Mammoth on Sunday evening, the Blue Jackets have the fewest points in the conference although they do have games in hand on the entire conference.
Needless to say, but the Blue Jackets need to start stacking wins soon. While their schedule this week is challenging, they will have an opportunity to take care of business at home.
The game against the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday is a case of the Blue Jackets waiting at home for two days for a team playing their third game in four nights. The Avalanche played Saturday night at home, travelled to Chicago on Sunday and will face the Blackhawks on Monday before playing Tuesday in Columbus.
The Blue Jackets should be the much fresher team. That didn’t work out well against the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs earlier this season. But there is a clear rest advantage in this game.
The Blue Jackets have a rematch with the Stars on Thursday then travel to Buffalo to take on the Sabres on Friday. There is opportunity for wins, but only if the Blue Jackets can figure out their early-season scoring woes.
Zach Werenski’s Goal Drought
In reviewing the stats around the Blue Jackets’ 5-7-0 start to this season, one thing immediately stands out. Norris Trophy winning defenseman Zach Werenski has yet to score a goal.
With the Blue Jackets near the bottom in goals per game, one might assume that Werenski’s drought is the main catalyst for the team struggling to score. Some may even suggest the defenseman is struggling overall in his game.
In taking a deeper look, Werenski’s zero goals is not a case of the player struggling. It’s a case of the age-old adage in hockey striking at the worst time.
Variance.
In simple terms, variance in hockey is a measure of how much a player’s actual performance fluctuates from what is expected. It does not discriminate who it affects. Every player encounters it at different points for different reasons.
If the rest of Werenski’s game fell off along with the goals, then this is a different conversation. But he is contributing in other areas which back up the notion of variance’s role in this matter. His goals will start to come if he continues what he’s started this season.
Werenski’s Positive Impact
Let’s set the scene. Werenski has no goals this season in 34 shots on goal. His finishing is ice cold. But if we expand and look at his career shooting percentage, we start to get a clearer picture.
Werenski is a career 7.2% shooter. On 34 shots, that comes out to around 2.50 goals rounded. He would be expected to have 2-3 goals if he was scoring at his normal rate. Sites like Nat Stat Trick have him somewhere around two goals below expected.
Now let’s look at his shots on goal per game. This season, Werenski’s 34 shots in 12 games comes out to 2.83 shots per game. In the last two seasons, his shots per game was at 3.57. That is a noticeable downtick but there is reasoning behind that.
Werenski has played more all-situations during games. With no Ivan Provorov until Saturday, Werenski has played over two minutes more per game on average with his focus not just on creating offense. That time-on-ice should start to come back to earth a little bit. That should allow Werenski to resume his more normal role knowing that Provorov can help with the tougher minutes.
Zach Werenski is dealing with a case of variance, not struggle in his game. (Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images)
Here’s the thing. Werenski’s point production is exactly the same after 12 games this season as it was last season. The only difference is goals.
In 2025-26, Werenski had 4-6-10 in 12 games. This season, he has 10 points on 10 assists which leads the Blue Jackets. He is still producing but just in a different way.
In terms of his on-ice impact, the Blue Jackets have outscored their opponents 11-7 with Werenski on the ice at 5-on-5. That has been helped by over .930 goaltending in that time per Nat Stat Trick. That will come back to earth too. But so will his goal scoring.
Effect on Team Offense
The Blue Jackets have scored just 28 non-shootout goals in their 12 games. The depth scoring has been a problem. A question that has come up is how much does Werenski’s drought impact this?
The honest answer? Not all that much. If Werenski scored what was expected, the Blue Jackets’ team offense would still be in the bottom-six of the NHL.
With a struggling power play and too many guys struggling at the same time to score, the offense is a clear problem. However, Werenski is not the reason for that. While he’ll be the first to admit he needs to score, it’s not a sign that his game is off. His process is still right as evidenced by being the team’s second-leading scorer 12 games into the season while still producing almost three shots per game.
In the end, Werenski’s goal drought is noticeable. It will get people talking. He’s just caught in the cold grips of variance. That usually corrects itself in a reasonable amount of time.
Both Werenski and the Blue Jackets hope that correction starts this week.
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