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ANAHEIM, Calif. — Not far from Ventura Blvd., it seems the right time to quote Tom Petty. Yes, the waiting is the hardest part.
But instead of every day seeing one more card, for the Pittsburgh Penguins, every game seems like one more loss. One more shovel full of dirt onto the end of the Penguins’ era. And yet there are months more ahead before it’s over.
In a video game world, it would be done in one afternoon. The Penguins’ trades would happen in an orderly fashion; each deal would be a winner. There would be a steady exit of veteran players who have bled for the team, waving goodbye to the crowd as they head off to chase Stanley Cups in other cities, while a bus full of exuberant rookies, prospects, and under-25s arrive like it’s the first day of summer camp, ready to revitalize the organization. And everybody is happy.
Yeah, real life is not going to be so neat and tidy. Much like the Penguins game on the ice, the transition from here to there is going to be messy.
Penguins 3 Thoughts
1. It Can’t be ALL at once
The proliferation of young players in the Penguins lineup can’t and won’t happen all at once. A steady stream would be most helpful to integrate players into the next level. What is important to remember is that the permanent step “up” to the NHL is not easy, and progression is not linear. There are ups and most certainly downs. Even Jake Guentzel was scratched in his prodigious rookie year.
Too many, too quickly, can erase culture, leave players listening to the wrong people, and send a team further into the abyss. See also: the Chicago Blackhawks.
Jake Livanavage, Avery Hayes, and Rutger McGroarty are banging on the door with exceptional beginnings to their AHL seasons, exactly as the organization demanded, and they have earned inclusion in the NHL lineup, though general manager Kyle Dubas has not yet cleared the space for them.
Defenseman prospects Harrison Brunicke and Owen Pickering are injured, but did not have boisterous starts, either. Perhaps one or both struggled with the comedown of the AHL playoffs to training camp, or perhaps it was being blocked in the NHL training camp despite the belief there would be a real chance to make the NHL roster.
They figure to get here, but only eventually, not imminently. Currently, both are injured, as Brunicke is out with an unspecified injury, and Pickering was injured Saturday. He did not practice Monday.
There could also be a few new additions who fit the youth criteria acquired via trade. But as exciting as an influx of youth can be, too much too quickly can be a bad thing… kind of like eating ice cream too fast … and then no one feels good.
2. Tommy Novak, Justin Brazeau
Novak is better as a winger than a center. Full stop. Setting aside numbers, his impact on the games has been significantly better from the sidecar than the middle. Novak is a player who will always have a baseline of statistics, but his impact from the middle was often muted.
On the wing, his playmaking adds another dimension, and defenders can be put into snap decisions to stay with him or cover a crashing center. Ice opens up.
NaturalStatTrick.com shows that with Novak on Ben Kindel’s wing with Egor Chinakhov, the line has a 61% Corsi, a 62% expected goals-for, and a 2-0 goals-for advantage (albeit a small two-game sample). The numbers are similar when Novak and Kindel play with other wingers.
But Novak’s numbers drop without Kindel (52% Corsi, 57% xGF), and he has a negative minus-2 rating.
Justin Brazeau was one of several big bodies in the Penguins lineup last season. He set career highs with 17 goals and 34 points, though most of his numbers were achieved in the first half of the season before a nagging injury hampered the remainder of the games.
This season, he is the only big body in the Penguins lineup and certainly the only forward who has shown a willingness to take away sunlight near the net front.
“He’s awesome. He’s fun to play with. Very, very good IQ, and you know what you’re going to get from him, right,” said Hendrix Lapierre. “Like, you know that those pucks are going to be (put) into good areas when he has it in the neutral zone. You know, he’s going to be in front of the net, and he uses his body when we’re in the O-zone.”
The Penguins’ third line has been MIA over the last two games, but Brazeau has still garnered attention from defenders and has not been as invisible as the line. His spot in training camp seemed to be tenuous, but with the roster direction of small and light, Brazeau stands in contrast. Literally.
Also, he’s now being listed at 6-foot-7, not 6-foot-6. On the PP2, Brazeau has contributed to one power play goal in the last few games simply by taking away a goalie’s sightline (Egor Chinakhov’s power play goal vs. LA).
Like everything in life, it’s about the role the pair find themselves in. Some roles are obligations, and some roles are meant for success.
3. Preseason Predictions Too True
PHN (Ok, me) predicted the Penguins would be one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, and they would need to be because they were going to give up even more goals than they scored.
We further predicted that the Penguins puck possession team would be in the bottom five in hits and generally struggle defending.
Ouch. It seemed obvious in September, but the extent and persistence of the defensive breakdowns remain dismaying. While the argument, “how much worse could it be,” generally holds no substantive value, in this case, it certainly does. How much worse could the Penguins’ team defense and structure be with an influx of young players?
Actually, it would likely improve greatly, as McGroarty and Hayes know their way around the defensive zone. And one could wonder what a scrappy player like Hayes would do beside Malkin and Crosby. The duo doesn’t need a playmaker or a goal scorer, but they badly need a puck chaser.
Those are the types of debates and discussions Penguins fans are desperately wanting to have. But you can take it on faith, and take it to the heart, the waiting … is the hardest part.