With the New Jersey Devils officially eliminated from the playoffs, the Calgary Flames will make their first selection at the 2025 NHL Draft with the Devils’ pick at 18th overall. It’s not an ideal situation for a team starved for elite talent, but that doesn’t mean the Flames can’t still pick up a future NHL piece at 18th.

Surprisingly, the Flames have selected 18th overall just once in their history. They selected forward Jesper Mattsson in the 1993 draft when there were only 26 teams in the league. Mattsson never played a game in the NHL. Here’s hoping their luck is a little better this time around.

The last five 18th overall picks

2024 – Sacha Boisvert – Chicago Blackhawks

The most recent 18th overall pick, Sacha Boisvert, looks like a great find by the Blackhawks. It’s still very early, but Boisvert impressed in his D+1 season by leading his NCAA team in scoring with 32 points in 37 games as an 18-year-old. Boisvert isn’t projected to be a star, but he has the potential to be a good middle-six centre at the NHL level, which is good value for an 18th overall pick.

2023 – Colby Barlow – Winnipeg Jets

Selected just two picks after the Flames took Sam Honzek at 16th, Colby Barlow has had a rough go of it since being selected 18th overall. He’s dealt with injury and inconsistency since being picked, and there are already some red flags surrounding this pick.

This past season, Barlow saw his production in the OHL drop to under a point per game, a concern for a player who should be dominating the CHL level in his D+2 season. He’s had a great playoff run with 25 points in 14 games at least. It’s, of course, early, but as a 20-year-old, Barlow needs to start taking steps forward and not back, or he’ll slip into bust territory at 18th overall.

2022 – Lian Bichsel – Dallas Stars

A 6’7″ giant, Lian Bichsel has become a regular in the Dallas Stars lineup in the playoffs this season, a great sign considering he was selected at 18th overall just three years ago. A towering shutdown defender, Bichsel has already played a major role as a top pairing option in the AHL since being drafted.

This current season, he skated in 38 NHL games for one of the league’s top teams in the Stars. As far as 18th overall picks go, this one seems like a great pick if Bichsel can keep progressing the way he has.

2021 – Chaz Lucius – Winnipeg Jets

Chaz Lucius was sadly forced into early retirement this year at only 21 years old due to a tissue disorder. It’s a shame, as Lucius looked like a real sly pickup by the Winnipeg Jets, and a potential steal at 18th overall before suffering multiple major injuries over the past couple years. We wish him the best.

2020 – Dawson Mercer – New Jersey Devils

Dawson Mercer has had an up-and-down path since being selected 18th overall in 2020. Mercer made the jump to the NHL full-time at just 19 years old in his D+2 season and looked to be on his way to becoming a major coup at 18th. His D+3 year saw him post 27 goals and 56 points for the Devils as he looked like a star in the making.

Unfortunately, he’s still chasing those highs, failing to reach 40 points in the two seasons since. Whether or not he gets back to his 50+ point potential is a major question mark at this point. Either way, Mercer has turned into a good middle-six NHLer, which is great value for an 18th overall pick.

How often do 18th overall picks make the NHL?

For a deeper overall look at how often 18th overall draft picks become NHL players, let’s look at how many of these picks since the turn of the century have played NHL games, played in at least 200 NHL games, and have registered at least 200 points in the NHL.

I’ll exclude the last three drafts as it’s too early to include those picks. We’ll also exclude Lucius, given the circumstances around his career. Overall, that leaves us with 21 total 18th overall picks between the 2000 and 2021 drafts.

Metric18th overall picks
(between 2000–2021)Played NHL Games19 of 21>200 NHL GP12 of 20*>200 NHL Points6 of 20*>0.5 P/GP4 of 20*Goaltenders not included in total

The numbers around past 18th overall picks seem to come out looking as expected for a draft slot in the middle of the first round. More often than not, you’ll be getting NHL games out of an 18th overall pick. However, the chances of getting an impact NHL player are much more rare.

Of the past 21 18th overall selections, 19 of them have skated in an NHL game. The only exceptions are goaltender Chet Pickard from the 2008 Draft and forward Jens Karlsson from the 2001 draft.

Of those 19 players with NHL games, 12 have played in at least 200 NHL games. With that said, the list is set to grow next season. Thomas Harley and Urho Vaakanainen will both hit the 200 mark early into the 2025–26 season, bringing the total to a very respectable 14.

Point production of 18th overall picks

It’s when we start looking at point production that the hope of drafting an NHL star at 18th gets iffy. Of the 20 non-goalie picks since 2000, just six have hit the 200-point mark in the NHL. Mercer is only 33 points away from 200, so he’ll surely join the 200 group next year and bring the number to seven. Likewise, Thomas Harley is 97 points away and should join the group within a couple seasons, bringing the total to eight.

Of the six players with at least 200 NHL points, only four have produced at a 0.5 point per game rate or higher. The four players are Mercer, Thomas Chabot, Alex Tuch, and Teuvo Teravainen. With that said, no 18th overall pick since 2000 has produced at a 0.7 point per game clip, or an 82-game pace of 57 points. In other words, don’t expect to get a top-line player at 18th overall.

Most notable 18th overall picks in NHL history

Throughout the history of the NHL draft, here are the most notable players selected 18th overall. I’ll consider players who have gone on to be top of the lineup players or have had All-Star-level careers in the NHL.

YearPlayer2019Thomas Harley*2015Thomas Chabot*2014Alex Tuch*2012Teuvo Teravainen*2000Brooks Orpik1995Petr Sykora*Active NHL Player

Needless to say, the list of notable, All-Star-level players taken 18th overall is incredibly slim. By my count, I tally just six players taken 18th overall since the first NHL draft in 1979 that have gone on to have top-of-the-lineup and/or all-star careers. The good news is four of the six have been taken since 2010, a sign that scouting and player development have obviously improved in the modern era.

Most recently, the Stars hit an absolute home run with Harley, who, just a few years after being taken 18th overall, is already considered one of the top defencemen in the league and even represented Canada on the international stage this year.

Also picked back-to-back in 2014 and 2015 are Alex Tuch and Thomas Chabot. Tuch took a few years to find his footing after being picked in 2014, but has since reeled off four 50+ point seasons and two 65+ point seasons. Chabot, meanwhile, has been a staple in the Ottawa Senators’ top-four for half a decade and has hit the 40-point mark as a defenceman three times.

Teuvo Teravainen, Brooks Orpik, and Petr Sykora are the only other notable players taken at 18th overall, as all have or have had very solid NHL careers as key pieces of their teams.

The odds aren’t in the Flames’ favour

An unfortunate deal with the Montreal Canadiens and a surprising season that saw the Flames finish just outside of the playoffs have left the organization with a middling 18th overall pick as their top choice in June.

The odds of picking a true game-breaking star at 18th—something the Flames desperately need—are close to zero. With that said, there have been some solid, top-of-the-lineup players taken at 18th in the past, meaning the Flames still have a chance at picking up a key piece of their future in June.

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