The Dallas Stars are one win away from advancing out of the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs and ending the Colorado Avalanche’s season.
The Stars won Game 5 in a convincing fashion to take a 3-2 lead as the series returns to Denver for Game 6 Thursday night.
That’s where the Stars ended Colorado’s season in the second round last year, winning a double-overtime thriller in Game 6 at Ball Arena.
But can Dallas do it again and avoid a high-stakes Game 7 at home Saturday? Here’s a look at some of the conversations around Game 6 and keys for the Stars ahead of their return to Ball Arena:
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Expect desperation
The last time the Stars held a lead in the series, Colorado responded with its best performance of the playoffs.
The Avalanche steamrolled Dallas in a 4-0 home win in Game 4 to even the series again. Dallas had no answer for Colorado’s intense response, and Pete DeBoer even rested Jake Oettinger in the third period, knowing the team had little chance to come back based on how it was playing.
With a 3-2 lead heading into Denver, the Stars are prepared for a similar response from Colorado.
“I think we know the desperation they’re going to play with because their season is on the line,” Stars forward Mikko Rantanen said. “It’s not easy to close out a good team. There’s only good teams left in the playoffs. It’s not easy to get the fourth one.”
The Stars know Thursday is a game where they need to jump out to an early lead, similarly to how they did in Game 5, when Wyatt Johnston gave the team a lead just nine seconds in. They also need to attack Mackenzie Blackwood with the same effort Colorado will bring against Jake Oettinger.
Now, having seen that desperation in Game 4, the Stars are hopeful they’re better prepared two games later.
“We know we’re going to get their best tomorrow,” Stars forward Matt Duchene said. “We’ve got to have our best. I think we know what to expect from them, and now, it’s about doing our thing.”
Numbers on Dallas’ side
As Rantanen said, it’s not easy to find the fourth win in a playoff series, but history is on Dallas’ side entering these last two games.
NHL teams that hold a 3-2 series lead win the series 79% of the time. In the last 30 years in Dallas, they’ve had even better results, winning 94.1% of the time with a 16-1 series record after holding the 3-2 advantage.
Obviously, the Stars would like to close the series out in Game 6, but if they can’t, DeBoer has been flawless in Game 7s in his career, going 8-0 and tying the league record for most Game 7 wins by a coach last year in the first round against Vegas.
Lessons from last year
The Stars are only a year removed from being in a very similar situation last year. As they enter Game 6, they’re hoping to draw on a number of experiences from the 2024 run.
In the first round, the Stars led 3-2 entering Game 6 in Vegas, but fell 2-0, and narrowly escaped the series with a 2-1 win in Game 7 at home.
A round later against Colorado, they managed to end it in Game 6 when Duchene scored the double-overtime series clincher.
Last year’s hero spoke Wednesday about being in the same position again.
“It’s a new series and a new year and everything, but we can draw on two experiences from last year,” he said. “We had this opportunity against Vegas, and we blew it. Then we had the opportunity and we took advantage. We’ve been on opposite sides, and we’ve seen what works. We can’t tiptoe into that game. We’ve got to go right after them and punch them in the mouth right off the bat.”
Can Duchene be the hero again?
Duchene was responsible for the emotional finish against his former team in Game 6 last year, and the Stars will look to the veteran forward again Thursday.
Duchene led all Dallas players that spent the whole season with the club in points this year (82). He trailed only Mikko Rantanen, who arrived at the trade deadline. He was also one of four 30-goal scorers for the Stars.
But in the Stars’ five playoff games, Duchene has logged just one assist and has yet to score.
Some of Dallas’ other top scorers got going last game, such as Rantanen, Johnston and Roope Hintz. Could Game 6 be Duchene’s time?
“Hopefully history repeats itself,” he said.
Fighting for extra rest
The Stars are hoping for another deep playoff run, and ending the series Thursday could give them some much-needed rest.
“It helps when you get even a couple days,” Rantanen said. “There’s always some bruises and some injuries in the playoffs that are not talked about, and those extra days can really help.”
The Stars are expected to play this entire series without Jason Robertson. Miro Heiskanen’s status for Games 6 and 7 is still unknown, but if Dallas can end things in six games, they could avoid having to use him in the series.
The next round likely won’t start until the middle of next week, so close to a week off could be a major benefit. Otherwise, the Stars would have to play Game 7 on Saturday, and if they win, the turnaround would be much faster.
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