The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators meet in Game 6 of an Eastern Conference first-round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Thursday. Puck drop at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Series: Maple Leafs lead 3-2

The Maple Leafs had a 3-0 series lead, but they lost 4-3 in OT in Game 4 at Ottawa. That could be excused. However, Toronto suffered a 4-0 loss on home ice in Game 5 in an elimination game, and that flat performance has gotten fans wringing their hands again, a tradition in the first round of the playoffs for Maple Leafs faithful. However, it looked like things were going to be different.

Toronto is now an abysmal 1-13 in the past 14 series-clinching games since 2016, while it has lost 6 straight series-clinching games at home in a best-of-7 series. And with the 4-0 loss in Game 5, it was the first shutout at home with a chance to clinch since the 1950 Semi-Finals. That’s some ugly history being dredged up by this current Leafs bunch.

For Ottawa, after a scoreless first period, D Thomas Chabot opened the scoring at 3:46 of the second period with helpers to C Tim Stutzle and LW Brady Tkachuk. C Dylan Cozens, an underrated addition at the NHL deadline, added a shorthanded goal at 8:24 of the third period to really quiet the Scotiabank Arena crowd. Stutzle and Tkachuk added empty-net goals to put a bow on the scoring. Stutzle and Tkachuk also ended up with 3 points apiece.

The bottom finally dropped out for G Anthony Stolarz, who has lost back-to-back starts after winning 11 consecutive starts since mid-March. He wasn’t awful, but he allowed 2 goals on just 17 shots. It was a listless performance by the high-priced offense, something Leafs fans know all too well from playoff failures of the past. Meanwhile, G Linus Ullmark was stopping everything, making 29 saves in the shutout.

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Maple Leafs at Senators odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Senators -118 (bet $118 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) | Senators -1.5 (+220)Over/Under (O/U): 5.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)Maple Leafs at Senators projected goalies

Anthony Stolarz (21-8-3, 2.14 GAA, .926 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Linus Ullmark (25-14-3, 2.72 GAA, .910 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)

After winning his first 3 NHL postseason starts in this series, he now has his first 2 career postseason losses. Again, Stolarz wasn’t horrible, stopping 15 of the 17 shots he faced, and the Leafs gave up a breakaway when they were on the power play, leaving the goalie on an island. He is still 3-2-0 with a 2.25 GAA and .899 SV% in 5 starts in this series.

Ullmark has helped the Senators rally and make this a series after facing the broom in Game 4. He allowed 3 goals on 34 shots in Game 4’s OT win, and then the 29-save shutout. He is now 2-3-0 with a 2.80 GAA and .883 SV% with 1 SO in 5 starts in this series.

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Maple Leafs at Senators picks and predictionsPrediction

Senators 3, Maple Leafs 2

The SENATORS (-118) are worth playing, as you’re not only backing the hotter team right now, but you’re also playing against the atrocious recent playoff history of the Maple Leafs.

Is Toronto really that cursed that it would be up 3-0 in a series, only to have its opponent force a winner-take-all Game 7? The first 2 games in Ottawa did go to overtime, so honestly, they could have gone either way. Toronto won 1, and it lost 1. The Leafs might actually play with less pressure in Ottawa than at home, where expectations are sky-high. But, pressure is mounting, and the meme writers are at the ready.

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-275) will set you back nearly 3 times your potential return if you’re too conservative to take Toronto straight up. And, with the way it performed on home ice in Game 5, nobody could blame you. But, for a little insurance, this just isn’t it.

AVOID.

UNDER 5.5 (-120) is the play in Game 5.

It’s inconceivable that the high-priced, sometimes high-octane offense of the Maple Leafs was shut out on home ice in Game 5, but here we are. It’s hard to imagine it will break out and catch fire in a critical game. Toronto is averaging 2.25 goals per game (GPG) across the past 4 outings, while Ottawa has averaged 2.8 GPG in 5 games in this series.

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