Ahead of Round 2 of
the Stanley Cup playoffs, we’re breaking down each matchup and
revealing our TRACR projection model’s pick.
“Anything can happen” isn’t just something hockey people say.
It’s proven to be true in the world of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The NHL is the least predictable of any of the four major sports
come postseason time.
No lead in a game is safe, no series lead is safe and playoff
seeds can be thrown out when an opposing goaltender gets hot. Teams
have come back from an 3-0 series deficit four times in NHL
history, but only once in the MLB playoffs and zero times in 159
chances in the NBA.
And though all four division winners won their
first-round matchups for the second year in a row after only
two survived their series with wild-card teams in 2023, the
NHL-best Winnipeg Jets stood just two minutes from being eliminated
until hockey happened.
Down 3-1 late in the third period of Game 7 against the St.
Louis Blues, Vladislav Nametnikov scored with 1:56 remaining to get
the Jets within one before Cole Perfetti tied the game with just
three seconds left to force overtime. The Stanley Cup title
favorites (per our
projection model) survived when Adam Lowry put home the winner
in the second overtime.
So will things continue to go all hockey wild in the second
round?
Our projection model gives us data-backed predictions for which
playoff teams continue to march on to the conference finals. The
model is based on each team’s TRACR, win-loss
record, strength of schedule, and more.
TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors
that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced
metrics and other factors on both offense and defense to calculate
how many goals a team is expected to score and allow each game. It
then compares these values to the league-average club (lower is
better for defense).
More From Opta Analyst
(Key: A-Atlantic Division;
M-Metropolitan Division; C-Central Division; P-Pacific Division;
WC-Wild Card)
Eastern Conference
Florida Panthers (A3) vs.
Toronto Maple Leafs (A1)
Regular-Season Record: Panthers
47-31-4/Leafs 52-26-4
Regular-Season Series: Panthers 3-1
Offensive TRACR
Rank: Panthers 14th/Leafs 15th
Defensive TRACR: Panthers No. 2/Leafs No.
3
Overall TRACR: Panthers No. 4/Leafs
10th
Projected Winner (Win
Probability): Panthers 52.1%
Trending: The Panthers won three of their four
games against the Maple Leafs this season, taking both games played
in Sunrise and splitting their two games in Toronto. The Panthers
beat the Leafs in five games in the second round of the 2023
playoffs, the teams’ only previous postseason matchup. The last
four games were decided by one goal (two in OT).
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs.
Washington Capitals (M1)
Regular-Season Record: Hurricanes
47-30-5/Caps 51-22-9
Regular-Season Series: Hurricanes
2-1-1
Offensive TRACR: Hurricanes No. 5/Caps
No. 3
Defensive TRACR: Hurricanes 12th/Caps
11th
Overall TRACR: Hurricanes No. 8/Caps No.
5
Projected Winner: Caps 53.7%
Trending: Washington has scored at least three
goals in each of its five games this postseason. It is the
Capitals’ longest streak of games with three or more goals in one
playoff year since their final seven games in 2018 when they won
the Stanley Cup. Alex
Ovechkin has totaled five goals and two assists in his last
five meetings with the Hurricanes, who scored five times in each of
the last two games of their playoff series against the New Jersey
Devils.
Western Conference
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Winnipeg
Jets (C1)
Regular-Season Record: Jets 56-22-4/Stars
50-26-6
Regular-Season Series: Jets 3-1
Offensive TRACR: Jets 12th/Stars
11th
Defensive TRACR: Jets No. 1/Stars
15th
Overall TRACR: Jets No. 1/Stars 12th
Projected Winner: Jets 59.7%
Trending: Kyle Connor has tallied 15 points
(six goals, nine assists) in the Jets’ seven home playoff games
over the last two years, with at least one point in each game.
Connor has scored only two points (one goal, one assist) in
Winnipeg’s five road games over the last two playoff years. He had
four goals and an assist in his last two regular-season games
versus Dallas (one home, one away).
Edmonton Oilers (P3) vs. Vegas
Golden Knights (P1)
Regular-Season Record: Oilers
48-29-5/Knights 50-22-10
Regular-Season Series: 2-2
Offensive TRACR: Oilers No. 6/Knights No.
7
Defensive TRACR: Oilers 17th/Knights No.
7
Overall TRACR: Oilers 11th/Knights No.
7
Projected Winner: Knights 55.0%
Trending: Connor McDavid has scored 10 or more
points in eight of the Oilers’ 10 playoff series over the last four
years. McDavid, however, only had one assist in his three games
against the Golden Knights during the 2024-25 regular season.
Stats and facts
provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.