At one point, it seemed like it was a matter of when and not if the Los Angeles Kings and Vladislav Gavrikov would reach an agreement on a contract extension. In March, former general manager Rob Blake somewhat indicated that there were positive signs toward an extension, but since then, now with Ken Holland at the wheel, there hasn’t been any progress that we are aware of. With less than a week until free agency, the 29-year-old defenseman has yet to be signed, and the odds that Gavrikov will be suiting up in new colors come October are getting better and better as the days go by.
It’s interesting to wonder what could be holding up the agreement on an extension. We know Gavrikov wasn’t in any rush at all to get a deal done, as he mentioned in his exit interview, along with the fact that he had lots of time to weigh out all his options.
“I don’t have any deadline to make a decision, I’m not in a rush at all,” he said. “I have plenty of time to do research, meet with my agent, (and) we’ll see where we are at.”
Vladislav Gavrikov, Los Angeles Kings (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)
From Gavrikov’s perspective, after having a phenomenal season in which his role and minutes increased in a contract year, it would make complete sense to wait and see who’s interested in him and what kind of money and term other teams are willing to offer. From some rumblings that have been out there over the past few weeks, there seem to be multiple teams that are interested in the elite defender and are keeping an eye on the situation. The one team that has been mentioned repeatedly by a few insiders has been the New York Rangers. This is going to be his big contract with a well-deserved raise, so there shouldn’t be any surprise that he’s taking his time and making sure he does what he feels is the best move for him.
Money is one thing, but the fit is another. The Kings are a consistent playoff team looking to take that next step in the postseason. Gavrikov was looked at as the team’s best defenseman this season and has played a massive role on the backend. He is the “guy” when it comes to the Kings’ shutdown presence so it’s hard to believe that if Gavrikov does choose to leave LA, it’s for a better fit, unless the Rangers decide to move on from restricted free agent K’Andre Miller (which there has been loads of speculation that they are interested in doing that), which would then leave Gavrikov as the No. 1 defenseman on the left side.
Gavrikov is expected to earn a long-term contract somewhere in the $7-8 million range. Somewhere in the $7 million range would be an ideal offer for the Kings because once that number starts increasing, the cap space they would be left with is around the $13 million range, and that dollar value begins to be a bit tight when thinking about how much it would take to land an elite forward in free agency while restricted free agent Alex Lafferriere is still without a contract. If Gavrikov wants $8 million plus, it’s still possible for the Kings to re-sign him, Laferriere, and offer a massive contract to an unrestricted free agent (UFA), but the Kings would need to create more cap space by moving a contract or two out.
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In a perfect world, the Kings re-sign Gavrikov at $8.2 million or less and Laferriere at around $3.5 million, land Mitch Marner in free agency offering him around $13 million, move out Joel Edmundson’s contract that carries an average annual value (AAV) of $3.85 million and allow Jacob Moverare, who proved he is capable of a full-time NHL role to fill in on the left side of the third defensive pairing.
If the Kings want to keep Gavrikov, which they should due to the importance he holds for this team’s defensive group, along with the fact that the options available to replace him through free agency will not put them at the same level they are at with Gavrikov, they can make it work. It’s just going to be about how and where they want to allocate their money, and if they are willing to move other pieces around to make it all fit.
There shouldn’t be any reason to believe that the Kings don’t want Gavrikov to return; the question is, does he want to return to LA? No matter what the Kings offer, it all comes down to what he wants.
How Could the Kings Pivot From Gavrikov?
If Gavrikov does decide to walk, where do the Kings go from there? Finding a replacement comes next, and if they choose to find it through free agency, the hole that he leaves will be too big to be filled because the truth is, the left-handed defensemen available in this year’s free agency pool are not of the same caliber as Gavrikov. There is no one available who can come in and fill his defensive shoes. Not to mention, along with his exceptional shutdown presence, he also contributed 30 points this season.
The Kings’ first priority should be trying their hardest to bring back Gavrikov, but if that doesn’t end up happening, who could they target either through free agency or by trade?
Because of the reported interest the Rangers have in Gavrikov, and this idea that the Rangers could be looking at moving Miller, it’s interesting to think about a possible sign-and-trade that could end up as part of some kind of deal that would have Miller’s rights coming back the other way. The Rangers can’t afford to keep Miller and sign Gavrikov, one because of how both players would fit into the lineup, and two, because of limited cap space. While again, Miller won’t have the same impact defensively as Gavrikov, he is a 6-foot-5, 25-year-old left-shot defenseman who still provides a solid shutdown presence with his elite skating and long reach, and has experience playing against opposing teams’ top lines.
Miller is still growing as an NHLer and hasn’t hit his full potential in New York. The skill and potential are still there; maybe he just needs a different team to help release it. He is a better option than any of the available free agents, and most importantly, won’t bleed out the Kings’ cap space as much. His required qualifying offer is $4.646 million, but projections suggest that his next contract will be closer to $5.9 million. If the ship has sailed with Gavrikov re-signing in LA, with what is out there right now, this might be the next best move for the Kings.
Ivan Provorov seems to be the only free agent worth inquiring about based on age, value, style of play, and impact, but even then, it might not make a ton of sense. The 28-year-old defenseman is coming off a six-year deal worth $6.75 million that the Kings were paying 30 percent of for two seasons. He is no stranger to eating up a lot of minutes and has been a steady presence on both the Columbus Blue Jackets’ penalty kill and second power play unit. He is more than capable of being a reliable second-pairing defenseman who can shut things down, and with Mikey Anderson set as LD1, that works out just fine. While there’s still a gap between Provorov and Gavrikov defensively, Provorov brings a bit more offensive upside.
The problem with the Kings signing Provorov would be giving him the money he wants. After coming off a contract worth almost $7 million, somewhere between $7-8 million seems like a reasonable guess as to what he will be looking for. At that point, the Kings are spending Gavrikov money, but aren’t getting Gavrikov. As mentioned earlier, Provorov is still a solid defensive defenseman who can play that shutdown role, but what Gavrikov showed last season is virtually irreplaceable, so would the Kings really want to spend that kind of money for Provorov?
The Kings are wanting to take a step forward next season not backwards, so it’s almost certain they will add a defenseman to play on the left side one way or another if Gavrikov is not returning, because a left side trio of Anderson, Edmundson, and Moverare doesn’t exactly scream elite shutdown defense, especially when the right side consists of an aging Drew Doughty who is coming off a short season due to injury, and two young offensive defensemen in Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke.
At the end of the day, if the Kings lose Gavrikov to free agency, their defensive group will undoubtedly be worse. There are ways they can soften the blow, but the void he leaves will be noticeable, to say the least.
