The Edmonton Oilers haven’t had as busy a free agency as some of their Pacific Division counterparts (ahem, Ken Holland), but it looks like they’ve been heavily scouring the market for upgrades nonetheless. Earlier yesterday, on the Kevin Karius Show, insider Frank Seravalli reported that the Oilers have been in on Isaac Howard and are willing to pay a high price to add him to their forward corps.
“There’s many people around the league that thought the Oilers were getting Isaac Howard. I think even people close to Isaac Howard thought that he was going to Edmonton. The Oilers, to my understanding, had told Tampa that they could and would do a late first-round pick in exchange for Howard’s rights, and that apparently wasn’t good enough.”
Who is Isaac Howard and why should the Oilers be interested?
Isaac Howard, a 5’11” left winger from Michigan State, made waves earlier this year when he reportedly refused to sign an entry-level contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning, the team that drafted him 31st overall in 2022. On Spittin Chiclets, the 21-year old explained, “I just feel like with me and Tampa, I guess we didn’t see eye to eye the same way I thought we would. It wasn’t a situation where I was demanding to step right into the NHL. It wasn’t anything like that… It just didn’t necessarily work out.”
Howard is coming off a season where he won the Hobey Baker award, scoring 52 points (26 goals and 26 assists) in 37 games in the Big-10. For reference, former Edmonton first-round pick Dylan Holloway scored 35 points in his final 23 games of college hockey. Not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison, as Holloway had already moved onto the AHL at the same age, but these numbers suggest that Howard is a talented player and would be amongst Edmonton’s top prospects if brought into the organization.
From scouting reports, Howard has been praised for his tenacity, quickness and offensive instincts. He’s not afraid to attack the middle of the ice and is able to slip through coverage as the non-primary puck carrier. Many scouts praise his scoring sense and finishing ability, which have both continued to trend upward since he was drafted. The knock on his game seems to be that he does not possess elite level skating (although it’s still quite good) or strength for an undersized forward.
Where should Edmonton go from here?
From all reports, Edmonton is interested in Howard, and Howard is interested in Edmonton. That gives the team some leverage, as Howard has a sizable amount of control over his destination. Under the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement, teams hold the rights to drafted NCAA prospects for four seasons. That means if the Lightning are not able to find a trade partner by August 15, 2026, Howard will become an unrestricted free agent. And, if he does become an unrestricted free agent, the Bolts would only receive a late second-round compensation pick in 2027.
It seems that the proverbial ball is in Tampa’s court. Edmonton’s offer seems more than fair given where Howard was drafted, and the longer the Lightning hold out, the more likely it is that they’ll have to settle for the compensatory pick instead. According to the Perri Pick Value calculator, the difference between a late first-round pick and a late second-round pick is two additional seconds and a fourth—that’s how much value the Lightning would potentially be giving up if they continue to hold out.
On the flip side, Edmonton would be wise to play the waiting game. The longer Tampa waffles, the less negotiating power they have. Of course, the Lightning could just choose to not trade Howard to set an example, but he will eventually become a free agent, capable of signing with any team. If I were Julien Brisebois, I would strike while the iron is hot.
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